Paul Swartz

Paul Swartz is a director and senior economist in the BCG Henderson Institute, based in BCG’s New York office.

  • US President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media following a meeting with Republican Senators at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. A faction of Trump’s allies is harboring doubts about Republicans’ chances of passing a sweeping tax bill in 2025 amid party infighting and strategy disputes. Photographer: Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesCommentary

    In Trump 2.0, growing, spending, or squandering an enviable macroeconomic inheritance are all on the table

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • SAN ANSELMO, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 25: A customer walks by a display of fresh eggs at a grocery store on September 25, 2024 in San Anselmo, California. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, egg prices have surged over 28 percent in August largely due to avian influenza (HPAI), also known as bird flu. Nearly 101 million birds have been impacted by bird flu since 2022 which has significantly lowered the number of eggs being produced. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Commentary

    Despite inflation, U.S. consumers are 5% better off than in 2019—here’s why they don’t feel that way

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 09: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 09, 2024 in New York City. The stock market closed slightly lower, losing gains from the previous day ahead of key inflation reports due later this week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)Finance

    What to expect for inflation, employment, and trade in the ‘tight 20s’

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • SHANGHAI, CHINA – APRIL 03: A woman walks by a LED displaying the GDP of China for 2022 on April 03, 2023 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Hugo Hu/Getty Images)Commentary

    Here’s how the U.S., Europe, and China are faring in the post-pandemic race for economic growth

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • Pedestrians outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Monday, Dec. 4, 2023. Stocks and bonds retreated as traders pause after Novembers blockbuster rally and debate the case for interest rate cuts. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesCommentary

    Economic pessimists’ bet on a 2023 recession failed. Why are they doubling down in 2024?

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 3, 2023. – Wall Street stocks rose early Friday, extending a market upswing despite lingering worries about the likelihood of more central bank interest rate hikes. (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP) (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images)Commentary

    Long-term interest rates are spiking. Could they deliver a recession–or are they a sign of strength for the U.S. economy?

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • ACCRA, GHANA – JUNE 20: Participants at the foyer of the Accra International Conference Center during a coffee break at the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) Annual Meeting on June 20, 2023 at the Accra International Conference Center in Accra, Ghana. The event marks the high point of the bank’s year-long 30th-anniversary celebrations, under the theme “Delivering the Vision. Building Prosperity for Africans”. (Photo by Ernest Ankomah/Getty Images)Commentary

    A much-feared emerging markets crisis didn’t happen. Is the global economy off the hook?

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 08: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the House Committee on Financial Services on Capitol Hill on March 08, 2023 in Washington, DC. During the hearing Powell took questions on a range of topics pertaining to the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)Commentary

    The SVB collapse adds financial instability to the Fed’s inflation fight. A recession may not be the worst outcome

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • A trader on the New York Stock ExchangeCommentary

    A soft landing is playing out—but optimism needs to be for the right reasons

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • A news ticker displays economic news in front of Morgan Stanley in the Times Square area of ManhattanCommentary

    Will the U.S. and Europe slide into recession in 2023? Here’s how to look out when economic outlooks don’t

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • NORTHFLEET, ENGLAND – SEPTEMBER 23: UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng visit Berkeley Modular, on September 23, 2022 in Northfleet, England. The Chancellor has released its growth plan of some 30 measures including tax cuts and an energy price cap for businesses which comes at a time when the UK faces a cost-of-living crisis, recession, soaring inflation and climbing interest rates. (Dylan Martinez – WPA Pool/Getty Images)Commentary

    Why the market vetoed the U.K.’s budget–and what it means for the changing nature of stimulus around the world

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • Dimmed lights are seen in the city center of Bonn, Germany on September 11, 2022 as city administration announce saving energy measures to cutting gas and electricity for the autumn and winter to cope with energy crisis in Germany (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

    Recession or resilience? Here’s how the U.S., Europe, and Asia stack up

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • A worker demolishes an interior wall in a house.Commentary

    How much damage will the housing market do to the economy?

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, takes the oath of office during a ceremony in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, May 23, 2022. The Senate this month voted to confirm Powell for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair, trusting him to tackle the highest inflation to confront the country in decades. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesCommentary

    Is this the end of low interest rates?

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome PowellCommentary

    For the Fed, fighting inflation is imperative, but slamming the economy would be premature

    By Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Paul Swartz