Energy industry insiders support Elon Musk’s outlook on the renewable energy transition—even if it’s hard to stomach

Back in Norway, the ONS energy conference is underway, with many CEOs of energy companies in attendance. 

One clear takeaway from the conference is how divergent the energy prospects for the U.S. and Europe are for the next few winters. While the U.S. is primarily occupied with keeping prices down and limiting exports, Europe and its companies face a tougher time ahead, with winter rationing almost certain.  

“It may well be that we have a number of winters where we have to somehow find solutions through efficiency savings, through rationing, and…a very, very quick build out of alternatives,” Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said at the conference, having voiced similar concerns in July.   

That grim prospect will undoubtedly have a short-term impact on Europe’s growth and competitiveness, with French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne warning on Tuesday that “companies will be the first hit.” Many American companies won’t be happy with a worsening economic prospect in their largest export market either.  

The energy conference also made clear that—at least in the near term—companies and governments will have to get energy where they can find it, including from nuclear, gas, and oil. That’s vindication for companies such as Shell and TotalEnergies, which invested in both renewable and nonrenewable energy, and for oil majors that made smaller bets on renewables, such as Chevron and Exxon.  

Yet in a survey released yesterday, ONS attendees almost unanimously (95%) voiced their support for a circular economy. Somewhat surprisingly, they also indicated climate change and political instability were greater challenges for the international community than energy security.

The findings point to consensus that the “energy transition” will involve fossil fuels for a long time to come and that it’s possible—if not always easy—to support renewable and nonrenewable sources of energy at the same time. Or, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in Norway: “We need to use oil and gas in the short term, because otherwise civilization will crumble.”

In India, one man has already got the message that playing both sides of the energy transition is a winning ticket. Gautam Adani, who built his wealth investing in both coal and green energy, this week became the world’s third richest man and the first Asian with a net worth of over $100 billion.  

More news below.   

Peter Vanham
@petervanham
peter.vanham@fortune.com

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This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.