Is a recession coming? Look to history for clues

I am repeatedly amazed by how little people consider history when prognosticating about markets and the economy. So I am pleased Fortune’s newest Quarterly Investment Guide is heavily rooted in history. Some tidbits:

• There have been 13 bear markets since the end of World War II, and on average, the loss from top to bottom has been 32.7%. That means we may still have a way to go.
• It’s taken an average of 12 months to go from peak to trough—more reason to think we might not have bottomed out yet.
• It then takes an average of roughly 21 months to go from the trough back to the previous peak. So the roundtrip takes about three years.
• Bear markets are often, but not always, followed by a recession. In the summer of 1946, the market fell 27% with no recession to follow for years. The famous Black Monday crash of 1987 also wasn’t followed by a recession.
• Since 1945, however, there have been nine times when the inflation rate spiked above 5%. And in every case, it took a recession to bring inflation back down. It seems pretty clear from that experience the only known way to stop price spikes is to slow demand in the economy.

Bottom line: We may or may not experience a recession this year. (There is certainly no sign of it yet, as economist Mark Zandi says here.) But history suggests that if we don’t, we’re only delaying the pain. “Soft landings” are nice for policymakers to talk about…but historically, they aren’t a thing.

You can get more detail in the full report, here. It also includes 11 stocks to buy in the downturn, as well as Shawn Tully’s strategy for surviving it. (Hint: It’s not “buy the dip.”) But a warning: This content is available only to subscribers. Maybe now is the time to sign up, if you haven’t already.

Other news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

Editor’s note: Yesterday’s essay has been updated in its online version to clarify the timeline of PalmerLuckey’s Oculus sale and his firing from Facebook.

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This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.