What the Gotham Awards Nominations Say About This Year's Oscar Race

The Gotham Awards—always a showcase for the year’s finest independent films—unveiled its newest slate of nominees on Thursday morning, unofficially igniting the coming awards season.

And with a staggering 14 nods overall, A24 emerged as the biggest winner across the board, securing nominations for the lion’s share of its marquee releases, among them The Farewell, Uncut Gems, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Waves, Midsommar, and The Lighthouse.

The Best Feature race, especially, pits three A24 releases—The Farewell, Uncut Gems, and Waves—against Netflix’s buzzy Marriage Story and STXFilms’ Hustlers, starring Jennifer Lopez and Constance Wu. It’s a significant victory for A24, which has historically occupied space in that category, but never a majority. It also hasn’t won a Gotham Award for Best Feature since Moonlight in 2016 (which went on to win the Best Picture Oscar).

The boutique indie studio has a remarkably strong slate this year, with contenders in all major categories, from acting to screenwriting. In the main acting categories, it’s Adam Sandler (for Uncut Gems), Willem Dafoe (for The Lighthouse), Florence Pugh (for Midsommar), and Awkwafina (for The Farewell), with breakthroughs Julia Fox (Uncut Gems), Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), and Taylor Russell (Waves) also landing nods.

Out of those, Sandler and Dafoe went into this morning with the most advance buzz, and they emerge from the Gotham Awards as solidified threats in this year’s awards race.

The former is a comedy titan who’s been earning raves for the dramatic, tense performance he gives as a scheming New York jeweler in Josh and Benny Safdie’s time-bomb thriller (out wide Dec. 13). It’s his best work since Punch-Drunk Love (2002), for which he was Golden Globe-nominated.

The latter is a much-beloved actor who’s considered increasingly overdue for serious awards attention, despite four Oscar nods (two of those in the past two years, for The Florida Project and At Eternity’s Gate). His turn in The Lighthouse, as a barnacled sea dog of a lighthouse keeper, is fearsome and commanding, enough that he’s considered a likely Best Supporting Actor contender.

It’s more dubious whether Pugh and Awkwafina—both stellar in movies mostly being viewed as triumphs for their writer-directors (Lulu Wang and Ari Aster, both nominated for screenplay Gothams as neither are “breakthrough” helmers)—can carry momentum out of the awards into the Oscar race. Both are rising stars and relative unknowns to the majority of voters; they’ll also face stiff competition from an actress Oscar race that includes Renée Zellwegger in Judy, Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story, Meryl Streep in The Laundromat, and Saoirse Ronan in Little Women (not to mention Pugh herself, also in Little Women).

Waves, on the other hand, could set Taylor Russell up to be the breakthrough actor contender this year. Trey Edward Shults’ super-charged Florida-set drama is a showcase for its actors, and the film’s failure to land a screenplay nod suggests its performances may break bigger than the film itself.

In terms of sheer “awards-baitability,” The Farewell may be leaving the Gothams in the best shape. Only Marriage Story, already considered an Oscar heavyweight by virtue of its stars and director, can also claim to have landed both a feature and screenplay nod at the Gothams, a sure sign of a movie whose narrative is resonating. A box-office surprise as well as an acclaimed family drama, The Farewell is well-loved for such a small-scale film, and A24’s savvy platform releasing of the film ultimately widened its reach. Three total Gotham nods bodes very well for Wang’s film.

The same can be said for The Last Black Man in San Francisco, a well-reviewed but more quietly released title that many had feared would be overlooked in the awards race; script, directing and acting nods at the Gothams (despite missing out in Best Feature) tells us that might not be the case. Uncut Gems, a taut thriller that’s earned comparisons to Martin Scorsese’s gangster pictures in its view of a seedy, crime-infested New York, has also fared quite well. Though it’s not releasing until December, a feature nod at the Gothams, coupled with acting nods for Sandler and Fox, suggest the movie’s being taken seriously as a dramatic contender, always a question mark for something so genre-indebted.

Netflix, with 10 overall nods, has centralized its awards push around Marriage Story and was rewarded with three Gotham nods (for feature; actor, for Adam Driver; and screenplay, by director Noah Baumbach).

The streamer came into this season with a packed slate that’s seemingly dwindled down to just a few real contenders. Steven Soderbergh’s The Laundromat has been released to the worst reviews of the acclaimed writer-director’s career, with better but still very mixed notices being given to Timothée Chalamet’s historical epic The King, by David Michod (Animal Kingdom).

As for Martin Scorsese’s three-and-a-half-hour epic The Irishman, it’s been roundly acclaimed on the festival circuit but could alienate some voters with its runtime and deadly serious tone. The Two Popes, headlined by Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce, isn’t landing until late December, but it’s been curiously quiet on the fall festival circuit. There are also two welcome surprises: André Holland’s nomination and a script nod for High Flying Bird, Netflix’s other Steven Soderbergh movie, a much stronger outing for the director that was inexplicably dumped in January of this year. Feared forgotten, the movie could still have legs with a proper Oscar season campaign.

The streamer also had a strong showing at the Gothams when its TV efforts are considered (three of the eight TV “breakthrough nods,” for charged “issue series” When They See Us and Unbelievable, as well as the Natasha Lyonne-led, conceptually ambitious dramedy Russian Doll). And its Gotham-nominated documentaries—among them the Obamas’ produced American Factory and super-topical Edge of Democracy—will almost certainly show up on the Oscar circuit. But its feature efforts this year haven’t resulted in a Roma-style powerhouse.

Marriage Story stands a real chance of winning in its feature and screenwriting categories, but that Scarlett Johansson missed out on an acting nod for a drama that’s as much hers as it is Driver’s suggests those voting on Gothams may have considered turns by less massive Hollywood stars to be more impressive. Could Oscar voters follow suit?

Another observation: Hustlers is a bona fide awards contender, which was already being said when it released to strong reviews in mid-September. But it can now, with Gotham voters’ validation, be taken seriously.

Lorene Scafaria’s gender-swapped Goodfellas riff took an unbelievable true story and turned it into a crime caper with social relevance, comic wit, and dramatic heft. The film’s tonal juggling act and strong box-office numbers are both impressive, as is evidenced by its Best Feature nod despite STXFilms’ mostly terrible year (UglyDolls, anyone?), which continues this week with the poorly reviewed horror-thriller Countdown.

That Jennifer Lopez and Constance Wu missed out on acting nods isn’t all that surprising, given their competition in that category (including from Alfre Woodard in acclaimed Sundance drama Clemency, still emerging but one to watch as awards notices pour in). But Lopez will have to pick up some accolades in the coming months if she’s to stand any chance of landing the Oscar nod most of those who’ve seen the film agree she deserves.

The full list of nominees is below:

BEST FEATURE

The Farewell
Lulu Wang, director; Daniele Melia, Marc Turtletaub, Peter Saraf, Andrew Miano, Chris Weitz, Jane Zheng, Lulu Wang, Anita Gou, producers (A24)

Hustlers
Lorene Scafaria, director; Jessica Elbaum, Elaine Goldsmith-Thomas, Jennifer Lopez, Benny Medina, Will Ferrell, Adam McKay, producers (STXfilms)

Marriage Story
Noah Baumbach, director; Noah Baumbach, David Heyman, producers (Netflix)

Uncut Gems
Josh Safdie, Benny Safdie, directors; Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Sebastian Bear McClard, producers (A24)

Waves
Trey Edward Shults, director; James Wilson, Kevin Turen, Trey Edward Shults, producers
(A24)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

American Factory
Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, directors; Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, Jeff Reichert, Julie Parker Benello, producers (Netflix)

Apollo 11
Todd Douglas Miller, director; Todd Douglas Miller, Thomas Baxley Petersen, Evan Krauss, producers (NEON and CNN Films)

The Edge of Democracy
Petra Costa, director; Petra Costa, Tiago Pavan, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, producers (Netflix)

Midnight Traveler
Hassan Fazili, director; Emelie Mahdavian, Su Kim, producers (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

One Child Nation
Nanfu Wang, Jialing Zhang, directors; Nanfu Wang, Jialing Zhang, Christoph Jörg, Julie Goldman, Christopher Clements, Carolyn Hepburn, producers (Amazon Studios)

BEST ACTOR

Willem Dafoe
The Lighthouse (A24)

Adam Driver
Marriage Story (Netflix)

Aldis Hodge
Clemency (NEON)

André Holland
High Flying Bird (Netflix)

Adam Sandler
Uncut Gems (A24)

BEST ACTRESS

Awkwafina
The Farewell (A24)

Elisabeth Moss
Her Smell (Gunpowder & Sky)

Mary Kay Place
Diane (IFC Films)

Florence Pugh
Midsommar (A24)

Alfre Woodard
Clemency (NEON)

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Farewell
Lulu Wang (A24)

High Flying Bird
Tarell Alvin McCraney (Netflix)

The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Jimmie Fails, Joe Talbot, Rob Richert (A24)

Marriage Story
Noah Baumbach (Netflix)

Midsommar
Ari Aster (A24)

BINGHAM RAY BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD

Laure De Clermont-Tonnerre
The Mustang (Focus Features)

Kent Jones
Diane (IFC Films)

Joe Talbot
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)

Olivia Wilde
Booksmart (United Artists Releasing)

Phillip Youmans
Burning Cane (ARRAY Releasing)

BREAKTHROUGH ACTOR

Julia Fox
Uncut Gems (A24)

Aisling Franciosi
The Nightingale (IFC Films)

Chris Galust
Give Me Liberty (Music Box Films)

Noah Jupe
Honey Boy (Amazon Studios)

Jonathan Majors
The Last Black Man in San Francisco (A24)

Taylor Russell
Waves (A24)

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – LONG FORM

Chernobyl
Craig Mazin, creator; Craig Mazin, Carolyn Strauss, Jane Featherstone, executive
producers (HBO)

David Makes Man
Tarell Alvin McCraney, creator; Mike Kelley, Melissa Loy, Tarell Alvin McCraney, Denitria Harris-Lawrence, Michael B. Jordan, Oprah Winfrey, executive producers (OWN: Oprah Winfrey Network)

My Brilliant Friend
Saverio Costanzo, creator; Domenico Procacci, Mario Gianani, Guido De Laurentiis, Elena Recchia, Jennifer Schuur, Paolo Sorrentino, executive producers (HBO)

Unbelievable
Susannah Grant, Sarah Timberman, Carl Beverly, Lisa Cholodenko, Ayelet Waldman & Michael Chabon, Katie Couric, Richard Tofel, Neil Barsky, Robyn Semien, Marie, executive producers (Netflix)

When They See Us
Ava DuVernay, creator; Jeff Skoll, Jonathan King, Jane Rosenthal, Robert De Niro, Berry Welsh, Oprah Winfrey, Ava DuVernay, executive producers (Netflix)

BREAKTHROUGH SERIES – SHORT FORM

PEN15
Maya Erskine, Anna Konkle, Sam Zvibleman, creators; Anna Konkle, Sam Zvibleman, Debbie Liebling, Gabe Liedman, Marc Provissiero, Brooke Pobjoy, Andy Samberg, Jorma Taccone, Akiva Schaffer, Becky Sloviter, Shelley Zimmerman, Brin Lukens, Jordan Levin, executive producers (Hulu)

Ramy
Ramy Youssef, Ari Katcher, Ryan Welch, creators; Ramy Youssef, Jerrod Carmichael, Ravi Nandan, Bridget Bedard, Ari Katcher, Ryan Welch, executive producers (Hulu)

Russian Doll
Natasha Lyonne, Leslye Headland, Amy Poehler, creators; Natasha Lyonne, Leslye Headland, Amy Poehler, Dave Becky, Tony Hernandez, Lilly Burns, Allison Silverman, executive producers (Netflix)

What the Gotham Awards Nominations Say About This Year’s Oscar Race

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