‘Generative AI is not yet an automation technology’: A decade later, the authors of a seminal paper on job risks are back with a reevaluation

Now, in the midst of a generative AI craze that few could have foreseen back in 2013, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne have revisited their seminal paper, asking themselves whether they had underestimated automation’s near-term effects on employment. I had a look at their working paper, which will be published in January, and was struck by the persistence of the bottlenecks they previously identified. While genAI will kill off many jobs in virtual settings—telemarketers beware—Frey and Osborne write that these limitations will keep AI in the realm of relatively low-stakes tasks for a while yet:

“In-person interactions remain valuable, and such interactions cannot be readily substituted for: LLMs don’t have bodies. Indeed, in a world where AI excels in the virtual space, the art of performing in-person will be a particularly valuable skill across a host of managerial, professional and customer-facing occupations. People who can make their presence felt in a room, that have the capacity to forge relationships, to motivate, and to convince, are the people that will thrive in the age of AI. If AI writes your love letters, just like everybody else’s, you better do well when you meet on the first date.”

Add to that generative AI’s tendency to “hallucinate,” and companies are going to hold back from entrusting AI with anything involving longstanding relationships. And when it comes to the arts, genAI still doesn’t do originality. “It is no coincidence that AI does best in tasks where we know what we want to optimize for, like for the score in a video game,” the authors write. “Yet if the goal is to generate something entirely new, for what do you optimize?”

Put another way, generative AI will do a great job of churning out text in the style of Shakespeare, Frey told me over the phone today, but “Shakespeare already existed and, if you want to do something entirely new, what do you prompt it for?” The technology suits the creation of “sequels rather than breakthroughs,” he added.

Also, AI systems still work best in structured environments (like automated warehouses) rather than those that serve up surprises (like the open road).

Generally, Frey and Osborne see AI’s big role in the near future as one of simplifying in-person tasks rather than completely taking them over. This could make it easier for less-competent people to enter industries, which could increase competition and ultimately depress wages—like Uber did in the taxi industry—but it’s not necessarily going to kill that many jobs. Because of that, and the fact that genAI’s drawbacks are unlikely to be solved anytime soon, the Oxford academics are holding off from issuing a new headline figure for at-risk roles.

“We don’t think these bottlenecks will persist indefinitely, but we think they remain relevant today even in this new age of generative AI,” Frey said. “Generative AI is not yet an automation technology—it still requires a human in the loop for various reasons.”

More news below. And if you’re still in a genAI frame of mind, check out the new principles proposed by the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority for the technology’s further development.

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David Meyer

NEWSWORTHY

Metaverse standards. China would like to set the global standards for the metaverse, and its tech ministry is setting up a working group to come up with some proposals. "It is urgent to promote healthy and orderly development of the metaverse industry through standardization and guidance,” the ministry said, according to Reuters.

Unity discord. Unity, the makers of the eponymous gaming engine, sparked outrage last week by telling developers they would have to pay it every time (beyond a certain threshold) someone installs a game made using the platform. The backlash was so severe that Unity had to close offices for fear of violence—Polygon reported the threat came from one of Unity’s own employees!—and now Unity has apologized for the “confusion and angst” it caused and promised to make unspecified changes to the new policy.

Californian bills. California Gov. Gavin Newsom will soon be receiving two important tech bills for signing. A right-to-repair bill passed last week would make the state the third after Minnesota and New York to force gadget manufacturers to make parts available for repairs and, as The Register reports, the new DELETE Act would give Golden State residents an easy way to tell data brokers to delete the information they hold on them.

ON OUR FEED

“It is useful and it will be used and I can tell you, I have used it.”

—Lord Justice Colin Birss becomes the first U.K. judge to admit to using ChatGPT when writing a ruling. Specifically, he got it to write a paragraph, and he did check it: “All it did was a task which I was about to do and which I knew the answer to and could recognize as being acceptable.”

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

In rare interview, Dr. Priscilla Chan shares plan with Mark Zuckerberg to follow in Bill and Melinda Gates’ footsteps, conquer all diseases by 2100, by Fortune Editors

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the AI transformation could create a 3-day workweek. We’re ‘going through a time warp’, by Chloe Taylor

Bill Gurley warns against regulatory capture in AI, hails open-source efforts, by Steve Mollman

Solana cofounder: ‘To keep the next great American founder in America, Congress must regulate crypto. But first lawmakers should learn how it works’, by Anatoly Yakovenko

The cofounder of ScaleAI jet sets on 24-hour trips and jumps out of planes, but never stops working. Here is her daily routine, by Payton Kirol

UAW boss says workers shouldn’t accept lower wages so ‘greedy people like Elon Musk can build more rocket ships’, by Nicholas Gordon

BEFORE YOU GO

Flying-taxi production. Joby Aviation has made prototypes of its air taxis before, but now the Delta-backed startup is building an actual plant, in Dayton, Ohio. It will take an investment of up to $500 million, and there are reportedly up to $325 million in incentives on offer.

Founder JoeBen Bevirt told Reuters that the new facility will start making electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles next year and, FAA certification permitting, commercial passenger services will follow in 2025. Rival Archer Aviation got FAA approval for flight tests last month. Looks like flying taxis really aren't so far off.