The world’s largest prediction market platform is returning to the U.S. On Wednesday, Polymarket posted on X that users can get on the waitlist for its app, saying the company will start by offering sports betting, with “markets on everything” to follow.
Polymarket’s impending return to the U.S. comes at a time when prediction market services, including Kalshi and Robinhood, are challenging the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel for a share of the lucrative sports betting market, while also offering bets on a wide variety of other fields.
Polymarket had been banned from operating in the U.S. following backlash from regulators in early 2022, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found it was offering betting contracts without the agency’s approval. The FBI later raided the company founder Shayne Coplan’s home. But earlier this year, U.S. prosecutors and the CTFC dropped their investigations and the company received regulatory approval.
Prediction markets—platforms where people can bet on future events ranging from the size of a Federal Reserve cut to the number of Elon Musk tweets in a given week—have broken into the mainstream. This began in part when Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi correctly predicted President Trump’s election victory, contrary to many national polls.
Polymarket uses a blockchain network to run its platform, and users can wager either in dollars or cryptocurrency. The startup is reportedly also in plans to launch a token of its own.
Polymarket and Kalshi are valued at $15 billion and $11 billion, respectively. Legacy financial institutions have also embraced the sector. In October, a parent company of the New York Stock Exchange invested $2 billion in Polymarket.
Prior to this week, U.S. users who wanted to access Polymarket would have to do so by using a VPN. Meanwhile, Kalshi has had CFTC approval and has been live in the U.S. since 2021.
Sports betting has been mired in controversy as of late, as scandals rocked major American leagues like the NBA and MLB. The cases allege that players, like Terry Rozier and Emmanuel Clase, manipulated their performance in order to win bettors money. Critics say that the proliferation of prediction markets could similarly corrupt politics and other institutions.
For now, though, prediction markets are charging full steam ahead. Bettors can even place a bet on whether Polymarket will go live in the U.S. in 2025, where odds are currently at 99%.
