The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Washington, D.C.’s leading nonpartisan budget watchdog, has sharply criticized the recent government shutdown as “pointless and wasteful” while unveiling the staggering $1.8 trillion federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025. This fiscal gap, reported by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in its Monthly Budget Review, reflects ongoing concerns about the nation’s fiscal path amid political gridlock. The disclosure comes as President Donald Trump touts rapid economic growth and tariff-driven stimulus as the solution to America’s ballooning $37.8 trillion debt, with most economists warning that the tariffs are really functioning as a tax on the consumer or on capital.
According to CRFB President Maya MacGuineas, the government’s estimated borrowing for the fiscal year isn’t exactly growing, but that’s the cause for concern. “While the deficit didn’t rise from last year, it didn’t fall either, and we continue to borrow far too much. Our national debt is about the size of the entire U.S. economy and will exceed its highest ever record as a share of the economy—set just after World War II—in short order.” MacGuineas noted that the U.S. is on track to borrow nearly $2 trillion per year for the next decade. “How can anyone think this is sustainable?”
Reopening the government without attaching new borrowing strings should be a priority, the watchdog urged. In addition, CRFB called for extending the discretionary spending caps that have helped manage spending over the past two years and recommended enforcing a “Super PAYGO” rule—requiring $2 in offsets for every $1 of new spending or tax cuts—to encourage fiscal responsibility.
MacGuineas also emphasized the pressing need to address long-term entitlement program insolvencies, specifically Medicare and Social Security trust funds, which face financial depletion without reform within roughly seven years. To instill fiscal discipline, the CRFB proposed establishing a fiscal commission tasked with reducing deficits to 3% of GDP, an ambitious but necessary goal given the current debt trajectory.
“The tragedy of the failure of governance we are witnessing,” MacGuineas asserted, is that political leaders have not been able to overcome their differences to do the hard budgeting work required. Without change, she warned, the United States risks losing its status as a global superpower.
The $1.8 trillion deficit faced last fiscal year reflects the ongoing challenges of balancing spending with revenues amid rising costs for healthcare, social programs, and national defense, alongside tax policies (namely, a reluctance to raise them) that limit revenue growth. The CRFB’s analysis paints a cautionary picture that stresses the urgency for bipartisan cooperation in Congress to enact sustainable fiscal policies.
Dalio’s diagnosis
The CRFB is far from alone in fretting about the deficit, as many top voices in finance have long urged the government to get its fiscal house in order. One of the most prominent is hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio, who has been skeptical of President Trump’s claims that, through “record growth,” the nation can essentially grow itself out of its $37 trillion debt load.
The Bridgewater Associates founder has studied nearly 50 major debt cycles and warns that prosperity fueled by rising debt is always temporary. In his 2018 book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, Dalio cautioned that leaders mistake prosperity for immunity, and income must consistently outpace debt service costs. Current CBO projections actually forecast debt held by the public will swell to 118% by 2035, and net interest payments will climb as a share of economic output.
Of late, noting gold’s series of record-setting highs throughout 2025, Dalio has said that it makes sense when you look at the debt situation. At the Greenwich Economic Forum in October, Dalio urged investors to allocate around 15% of their portfolios to gold, saying the metal’s surge reflects a shift away from debt assets and fiat currencies, reminding him of the 1970s. He linked it to rising global debt levels—especially America’s $37.8 trillion burden—and he noted that many central banks are increasing their gold reserves, highlighting an ongoing “change in the monetary order.”
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
