In the age of decentralized warfare, conflicts are no longer bound by geography. A drone launched from a garage, or a malicious line of code can hit as hard as a missile, though it can be deployed far from any conventional front lines. Nation states must now defend everywhere at once, and critical infrastructure has well and truly become a major target.
As the face of warfare changes completely, Western governments must adapt to keep up, reevaluate what constitutes “defense,” and prioritize the importance of cybersecurity innovation. At the NATO Summit earlier this summer, the alliance took an essential first step towards building this modern defense landscape. It agreed to boost defense spending towards 5% of GDP and reiterated NATO members’ Article 5 commitments.
As the U.S. pushes the UK and Europe towards self-reliance, the imperative for defense investment is clear. Defense innovation has moved from a fringe issue to an existential one, and the UK’s latest review was a clear sign that its importance is finally being properly acknowledged. But there is more to be done.
The evolution of warfare
Warfare is increasingly decentralized and technology-driven, marking the biggest change in conflict since the advent of flight. This decentralisation means that front lines and battlefields no longer exist in the same way, and conflict isn’t confined to physical, kinetic combat. Instead, cyber-attacks and sabotage have become standard elements of state conflict.
Ukrainian officials report that Russian cyber-attacks have surged dramatically since the invasion, with roughly 70% more attacks in 2024 than the previous year. These are not indiscriminate attacks either; more than half targeted government systems, with a drastically increased share aimed at military command and control infrastructure.
This threat exists beyond active warzones too. Critical national infrastructure is being targeted across Western nations by various cyber-criminal and hacktivist groups, as well as state actors. The tactics have transcended low-level website defacements and data theft too and now extend to more destructive attacks on systems such as energy grids, gas pipelines, and undersea cables. Given that an attack on servers or substations can be as devastating as an attack with shells and missiles, any effective defense strategy must now treat digital threats with the same level of severity as physical ones.
AI and autonomy on the battlefield
Alongside this cyber warfare, there has also been a rapid advance of AI and autonomous systems on the battlefield. Drones and robotic platforms are increasingly controlled by AI, allowing them to reconnoitre, identify targets, and attack without direct human control. Both Russia and Ukraine have invested heavily in these capabilities, effectively ushering in a new era of partially autonomous fighting. This kind of ‘autonomy at the edge’, where human oversight is minimal once a system is unleashed, marks a qualitative shift in warfare. While it certainly raises difficult ethical and safety questions, militarily, it offers speed and surprise that traditional remote-controlled weapons simply cannot match.
Take Ukraine’s innovative use of drones for example. Its forces have repeatedly reached deep into Russian territory, using swarms of inexpensive drones instead of fighter jets or cruise missiles. In March, it launched its largest ever attack, sending 343 drones to the Moscow region, forcing the shutdown of all four of the Russian capital’s airports. In June, its ‘Spiderweb’ operation saw more than 100 drones deployed deep within Russian territory, striking airbases up to 4,500km away from the border.
The devastating power of these relatively inexpensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is reshaping the tactics of warfare. The Spiderweb strikes have been described as a “low-cost precision strike operation”, demonstrating how a nation lacking heavy, long-range missiles can still inflict serious strategic losses.
There is also a grim side to this revolution. Each of these inexpensive UAVs, and indeed any device connected to the internet, is a target for cyber warfare. This presents another opportunity to hack and disable or repurpose, instantly turning an asset into a vulnerability.
The very strengths of autonomous weapons — that they are cheap, scalable, and effective — will also make them the tools of choice for rogue states or terrorist actors. Many existing defenses, like airport security checkpoints or traditional anti-aircraft systems, are ill-suited to this threat, forcing a rethink of protection strategies for public venues and critical infrastructure.
A defense industry for the future
NATO recognizes that it is on the cusp of a watershed moment, and that it is in a race against time to adapt to an ever-evolving threat landscape. Military force is no longer solely defined by tank or troop numbers, but by technology, agility, and resilience.
The UK, for example, has set up joint task forces between the military and industry to harden energy infrastructure and is investing in rapid restoration capabilities for communications networks. This blurring of what is ‘defense’ is important as the potential attack surface becomes both global and digital. We must now also consider resilience across the economy as part of our broader defense strategy.
The age of decentralized and hybrid warfare demands a more agile and innovative Western response. Increasing military and defense budgets to include cyber and infrastructure protections is a good start. Doubling down on technological innovation and fostering closer government-industry collaboration would be an excellent next step.
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