In 2023, after a decade of significant progress in its development and use, artificial intelligence (AI) burst into the public consciousness, expanding our sense of possibility, challenging how we approach many tasks, and sparking public and private debate. If 2023 was the year the world came to experience AI, 2024 is the year that will chart the course for how it impacts society for decades to come.
This makes the coming year a moment of urgent opportunity. If the world gets this right, AI will assist us in everyday tasks as well as our most ambitious and imaginative endeavors, enable innovation and prosperity, and benefit people everywhere. To do that, we must work proactively and collectively toward realizing AI’s benefits, addressing its challenges and risks, and governing it in ways that build trust.
AI’s potential economic value has been estimated to be from $17 to $25 trillion globally. Some of this economic benefit will be a result of entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes leveraging AI to innovate, create, and be more productive. It will also undoubtedly come from the scientific applications and discoveries AI makes possible. Some illustrative examples in science from the past year include AI models able to categorize genetic mutations as benign or harmful, and breakthroughs that will lead to more inclusive and equitable genetics testing and treatment. There are numerous other examples in fields ranging from material science to energy.
AI also offers new ways to address pressing societal challenges–whether it’s helping us diagnose and improve health outcomes or mitigate and adapt to climate change. For example, AI-enabled flood forecasting is now providing flood alerts to more than 80 countries and 472 million people.
This is not going unnoticed by the general public. The results of forthcoming public opinion research Google conducted with Ipsos, spanning 17 countries, show that while respondents expect AI to disrupt work and life, they also believe that this disruption would overall be positive. These attitudes are most pronounced in countries in the Global South–but come with heightened expectations that those countries will be involved in AI’s development and use and benefit from its transformational potential.
At the same time, AI also presents complexities and risks that must be taken seriously. Some of these include performance issues like factuality, bias, and toxicity. Even when AI works as intended, it can be applied in inappropriate ways or misused by bad actors. Misinformation is a particularly timely concern for 2024, as an estimated 2.5 billion people in more than 60 countries are expected to go to the polls.
As the world has done with previous technological breakthroughs, we need to navigate societal complexities around how AI will cause the labor market and jobs to evolve. If we get it right, AI offers an avenue for assisting people, powering our economies, and expanding shared prosperity. But we will need to thoughtfully address questions around inclusion and reskilling, with a focus on how AI can complement rather than replace human capacity. None of these challenges can or should be addressed by a single entity, given that the development, deployment, and use of AI will happen across countries and regions. Governance for AI must be inclusive–and focused on the public interest.
Last year brought a number of national and international efforts to address some of these questions, including governance and regulation: the U.S., the E.U., the G7, and the UN High-Level Advisory Body on AI, an effort I am co-chairing. In 2024, we must build on this encouraging progress in ways that benefit people, protect fundamental human rights, and international law, and engage a broad and representative group of stakeholders including those in the Global South. The world is currently off track on more than 80% of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals with huge implications for people’s lives, prosperity, and the health of our planet–and AI may help us make more progress.
If we as a society are to set ourselves on the road to fully realizing the societal and economic potential of AI, then 2024 must be a year of action across sectors, disciplines, and geographic borders. We have much to accomplish.
James Manyika is Google’s SVP of research, technology and society.
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