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Joe Biden has won Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, a major upset in President Donald Trump’s campaign strategy. The state has long been seen as a safe bet for Republicans and has gone to a Democrat in a presidential election only once since 1952, when Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 31,215 votes in 1996.
This upset means that Biden has a lot more leeway in what he’s deemed the “blue wall,” an important group of Midwest and Rust Belt states that his campaign has determined are essential to a Democratic presidential win. The extra 11 votes, bolstered by a win in Nebraska’s second district, could allow Biden to clinch a win even if he loses Pennsylvania, so long as he takes Michigan and Wisconsin.
While Trump won Arizona in 2016, his margins were much lower than his Republican predecessors. He took the state by about 3.5 points—the smallest win in 20 years. His constant attacks against the state’s late and beloved Sen. John McCain are thought to have hurt him significantly with Arizona voters.
Trump, meanwhile, made an aggressive attempt to campaign in and hold on to his margin in Arizona this time around, making seven trips to the state in 2020. In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump sent his children, Vice President Mike Pence, and multiple surrogates to represent him in the state.
The Trump campaign had predicted a large win in Arizona and across the Sunbelt. “You look at Arizona, where I’m very confident, very safe, that we’re going to win Arizona,” said senior campaign adviser Jason Miller to ABC News on Sunday.
Biden stopped in the state just once this year, and Kamala Harris, his running mate, visited twice.
The changing demographics of the state have boosted Democrats in recent years: A growing Latino population, new and young voters, and a large number of suburban women have all come out in support of the left, making the once ruby-red state solidly purple.
The top-of-the-ballot race was likely bolstered by the highly watched Senate race between incumbent Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Mark Kelly, the husband of former Arizona congresswoman Gabby Giffords. The Associated Press called the seat for Kelly early Wednesday morning.
If Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he would capture at least 290 electoral votes. A candidate needs 270 to win.
