Top CEOs are more confident about growth now than they were before the pandemic

Good morning.

Here’s your bit of data for the day: the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP is on track to reach a whopping 136% by the end of this quarter. That’s a result of the massive federal spending response to the pandemic, and, for comparison purposes, is well beyond the 119% reached after the Second World War.

That extraordinary spending surge is likely one factor behind the stock market’s rise. And it may also be giving a boost to business confidence. KPMG gave CEO Daily an advance peek at a survey of 100 large-company U.S. CEOs coming out later today, which had some surprising results. Three stood out for me:

—60% of the CEOs said they are “more confident” in the growth trajectories of their companies over the next three years than they were at the beginning of the year.

—43% said they were “more confident” in the growth of the U.S. economy over the next three years than they were at the beginning of the year.

—And 37% said they were “more confident” in the growth of the global economy over the next three years.

You read that correctly: those CEOs have more confidence today than they did before the pandemic. How can that be? I asked KPMG U.S. CEO Paul Knopp that question yesterday. He noted first off that the CEOs surveyed were mostly the heads of large companies. The survey doesn’t cover the thousands of restaurants, small retail establishments, and others whose businesses have been permanently crippled by the crisis. But he also said it reflects the fact that many companies have seen their digital transformations “accelerated by months and in some cases years,” and thus are “more optimistic about their digital innovation.”

“There is no doubt that there has been tremendous economic dislocation,” Knopp said. “But many companies had earnings momentum going into the crisis” and many feel they “are building a more resilient business, and digitally transforming the business.”

More news below.

Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com

TOP NEWS

Tick tock

As the White House's deadline creeps closer, some big investors in TikTok parent ByteDance (specifically, General Atlantic and Sequoia Capital) reportedly want to see the video app's U.S. operations sold to Oracle rather than Microsoft. That's because they want a piece of the action, and Microsoft has not yet invited other U.S. investors to join its bid. Wall Street Journal

German GDP

The German economy contracted by 9.7% in Q2—a record shrinkage much worse than anything during the financial crisis a decade ago. Public sector consumption grew 1.5%, though, due to coronavirus rescue programs. But otherwise, as VP Bank economist Thomas Gitzel put it, "everything was in free fall." Reuters

India vs Huawei

India is reportedly phasing out Huawei equipment (and that from other Chinese firms) in its telecoms networks, without any formal ban. A telecoms industry executive told the FT: "It's open now that the government is not going to allow Chinese equipment. There is now clarity…It's really game over." Financial Times

Huawei chips

U.S. efforts to starve Huawei of chips could end up having a major impact on European telecoms networks, many of which have long employed Huawei equipment. By some estimates, Huawei has ongoing contracts in every EU country except for Slovakia. Politico

AROUND THE WATER COOLER

Profits per employee

Financial tech firm Tipalti crunched numbers from the Fortune 500 list to figure out how much profit tech companies are making per employee. The results put Facebook, Apple, Alphabet and Microsoft at the top. Facebook's profit per employee is $411,308 and Apple's $403,328. Uber, meanwhile, is losing a whopping $316,208 per employee. Fortune

Mask up

A coronavirus-carrying woman visited a Starbucks in South Korea this month and infected 27 customers, but none of the outlet's four mask-wearing employees. Now the incident is being closely studied. Infectious diseases expert Ma Sang Hyuk: "Masks may not provide 100% protection, but there's nothing out there that's as effective." Fortune

Fauci caution

A coronavirus vaccine should only be used when it has been proven safe and effective, the U.S.'s top virus expert has warned. Anthony Fauci said rushing the release of a candidate vaccine, as President Trump is reportedly considering doing, could harm the development of other vaccines. Reuters

Vaccine hype

Wall Street analysts are not great at interpreting the early results coming from coronavirus vaccine trials—unsurprisingly, because in many cases even immunologists can't yet reach conclusions based on those results. John Mascola, head of vaccine research at the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases: "There’s really no substitute for a Phase III trial." Fortune

This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.