• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

2

Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026

3

Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates

1

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon

2

Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026

3

Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
FinanceQuarterly Investment Guide

The health of the economy in 7 charts

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 8, 2020, 6:00 AM ET

This article is part of Fortune‘s quarterly investment guide for Q2 2020.

Remember early February? The stock market was notching new highs, the unemployment rate was at a 50-year low, and the coronavirus was an emerging strain of disease halfway around the world.

The world couldn’t look more different now.

Now the question isn’t just how deep a recession will be, it’s whether we’re heading for the dirtiest word in all of economics: a depression.

To best judge which way the economy is going, Fortune canvassed seven top economic indicators. Because things are changing so rapidly during this pandemic, we looked only at indicators that include data as of mid-March, when the pandemic was substantially affecting the U.S. economy. (Some indicators like the unemployment rate and home construction are lagging, so we won’t see the full effects of the coronavirus on those till later this spring.)

More than 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending March 28. That is the highest number ever, topping the previous all-time record of almost 3.3 million unemployment claims, which was set the week ending March 21. Combined, that’s 10 million jobless claims in two weeks.

This surge in unemployment claims is so great that states are struggling to process everyone—meaning the total number of claims is actually higher.

Before these unemployment claims, a total of 7.1 million Americans were unemployed in the most recent jobs report through mid-March. But if you combine the number of Americans unemployed in the jobs report and the following two weeks of unemployment claims, then the country’s jobless amounts to above 17 million—which would be the highest in American history.

Back in August 2019 the yield curve inverted, which means long-term rates were temporarily lower than short-term rates. Historically, this usually happens before a recession. Since then, the inversion has receded. But the fact it inverted means there was already some concern in the economy even before COVID-19.

Consumer confidence dropped in March, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. The index was at 120, down from 132.6 in February. While this drop moves consumer confidence back to 2017 levels, it is still far above where it was during the Great Recession.

“March’s decline in confidence is more in line with a severe contraction—rather than a temporary shock—and further declines are sure to follow,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board in its press release.

Earlier this year the Shiller P/E ratio was starting to get historically high, indicating an overvalued stock market. Since then, we’ve entered into a bear market, and the index has dropped. But this drop might be less than it appears, considering earnings will be down significantly once we get earning reports—so current P/E ratios look lower since they’re based on previous higher profits. Either way, the P/E ratio is still above that of 2009, meaning the market still has room for bigger losses if the downturn deepens.

The past month has been brutal on Wall Street, as an 11-year bull run turned into a bear market. The S&P 500 dropped 34% from its February high of 3,386 to 2,237 in March. It has since recovered a bit, but this drop is a bad omen. In recent history, similar-size drops have usually been followed by recessions. One of the best examples is the Russell 2000 and other indexes that crashed in 2000 and were the red flag leading up to the 2001 recession.

Even before the coronavirus outbreaks, U.S. manufacturing was already lethargic, contracting several times late last year. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 49.1% in March, down from 50.1% in February. A PMI below 50% signals a contracting manufacturing sector—something that has happened six times over the past year. But that mild dip isn’t as bad as many other industries. The reason is that states like Ohio and Pennsylvania have deemed manufacturers essential and allowed them to stay open. And some manufacturers with ties to the health care industry are as busy as ever, as they ramp up production of items like masks.

The U.S. grew at 2.1%. in the final quarter of 2019. That modest growth could soon be upended by sharp decreases, according to Goldman Sach’s GDP forecast released March 20. And given the 10 million Americans who’ve claimed unemployment in the weeks since, that forecast might be too conservative.

Last quarter we provided a scorecard for the economic indicators (green=signaling growth, yellow=steady, and red=forewarning trouble). This quarter the data scream only one color: red or trending red.

The trajectory of the economy in 2020 is clearly pointing toward a recession. The specifics—how deep, how long—will dictate the damage done to the U.S. economy once the pandemic recedes.

More from Fortune’s Q2 investment guide:

—5 rules to guide your investing decisions during the coronavirus pandemic
—Market preview: What to remember as we move past a quarter to forget
—Chasing returns: Why ‘inside the tent’ assets like corporate debt may be poised to outperform
—Q&A: State Street’s Lori Heinel on where she sees beaten-down buying opportunities during coronavirus
—Best stocks to buy now: These 5 names will weather the coronavirus pandemic
—Why a bear market is the best time to ‘convert’ to a Roth IRA
—How to adjust your 401(k) during a bear market

Subscribe to Fortune’s Bull Sheet newsletter for no-nonsense finance news and analysis daily.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

scott
EconomySocial Security
‘We are rapidly running out of time’ Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
2 hours ago
The Gulf states are betting big on AI: who’s investing where?
Middle EastInvestment
The Gulf states are betting big on AI: who’s investing where?
By Melissa HancockJune 9, 2026
3 hours ago
Teenage boy on laptop
SuccessJobs
Around 22 million teenagers are making their pocket money on video games, online reselling, and in-game platforms like Roblox
By Emma BurleighJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago
View of the White House lawn and grounds
PoliticsWhite House
Lockheed, Palantir, and Amazon helped fund Trump’s White House ballroom. They also share more than $50 billion in federal contracts
By Catherina GioinoJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago
Traders sitting at computers react
InvestingStock
AI stocks are recovering after suddenly tanking last week as oil prices drop more than 3%
By Stan Choe and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago
A for sale sign in front a Spanish style house
Real EstateHousing
Home sales are finally recovering and outpacing economists predictions even as mortgage rates remain high
By Alex Veiga and The Associated PressJune 9, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
Environment
Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change fake, is now threatening Brazil with tariffs over the deforestation of the Amazon
By Sasha RogelbergJune 8, 2026
22 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 8, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
Success
Gen Zers are arriving at college unable to even read a sentence—professors warn it could lead to a generation of anxious and lonely graduates
By Preston ForeJune 7, 2026
2 days ago
'We didn’t see this coming': Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off globally on fear of AI bubble ahead of SpaceX IPO
Economy
'We didn’t see this coming': Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off globally on fear of AI bubble ahead of SpaceX IPO
By Jim EdwardsJune 8, 2026
1 day ago
'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
Economy
'The golden years are not golden': Boomers are hoarding most of America's wealth and power because they're terrified of outliving their money
By Nick LichtenbergJune 7, 2026
2 days ago
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
19 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.