Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, helped plan and execute Operation Absolute Resolve, a daring mission that saw the U.S. Army capture former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. His superiors, however, were unaware that Van Dyke had more riding on the mission than just the abduction: He had also secretly placed 13 wagers on the prediction markets site Polymarket that the U.S. would invade or that Maduro would be captured prior to January 31.
Van Dyke’s wagers won him $409,881, according to the U.S. Justice Department, but now the soldier’s wagers have earned him something else: a series of criminal charges related to insider trading that come with the prospect of decades in prison.
“Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain,” said FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr., in a statement announcing the charges, which cited unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction.
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke used classified information he acquired as part of planning for the mission to place his successful bets. He did so despite signing non-disclosure agreements that forbade him from divulging sensitive information related to military operations.
Polymarket is a platform where users take positions in so-called events contracts that offer shifting odds on a wide variety of real life scenarios ranging from elections to sports games to the weather, and where users take “yes” or “no” positions on the contract. In the case of Van Dyke’s wagers, he took the Yes position on wagers like “U.S. Forces in Venezuela . . . by January 31, 2026”, “Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026”, “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by . . . January 31,” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by . . . January 31.”
In the days following Maduro’s capture, a series of reports appeared in the press highlighting the unusual wagers. In response, Van Dyke sought to cover his tracks by deleting his account from Polymarket and changing the email account tied to a cryptocurrency exchange where he had initially parked his winnings.
According to Polymarket, the company identified suspicious behavior and contacted federal authorities.
“Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works,” said a spokesperson.
As prediction markets have exploded in popularity, reports of insider trading are becoming more common. In February, for instance, Polymarket’s chief rival Kalshi announced it had banned a Mr. Beast employee who had made bets based on insider information tied to his jobs, and this week the company announced it had done the same for several political candidate who had wagered on their races.
