• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’

2

The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families

3

Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026

1

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’

2

The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families

3

Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026
Finance

What Are the Odds of a U.S. Recession by 2020? Larry Summers Says They’re Pretty High

By
Lucas Laursen
Lucas Laursen
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lucas Laursen
Lucas Laursen
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 16, 2018, 5:58 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Harvard economist Larry Summers believes there’s an almost 50% chance the U.S. will fall into recession by 2020.

The former U.S. treasury secretary told CNBC Thursday that an economic retraction was a “near certainty” because of jitters within global finance, heightened political tensions worldwide and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

A survey this summer of business economists revealed that a majority also think the next recession will arrive by 2020.

If these theories are proved correct, it will bring an end to a lengthy period of economic expansion that started in June 2009. Indeed, should the U.S. economy continue to expand until July 2019, it would become a record-breaking streak, according to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research.

Summers was the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury during the administration of former U.S. President Bill Clinton, which also happened to be during the record-setting ten-year economic expansion from 1991 to 2001.

Summers has criticized the current administration’s economic policies, from trade to its unprecedented comments on the Federal Reserve, and repeated both points to CNBC. Still, he weighed in on Fed policy himself, noting that the risks of inflation might be preferable to the risks of choking growth prematurely.

He has also been advocating for more investment in infrastructure since before the current administration. In Thursday’s interview, he said, “It is crazy that a country that can borrow for 30 years at 3 percent in a currency that we print ourselves isn’t repairing its airports, our highways, and isn’t putting in place a modern infrastructure.”

 

About the Author
By Lucas Laursen
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Jalen Brunson
Arts & EntertainmentSports
The Knicks’ playoff run that ended in a championship and parade is worth at least $380 million to New York City
By Catherina GioinoJune 18, 2026
44 minutes ago
Singapore punches above its weight on the Southeast Asia 500, capturing a third of total revenue
AsiaSoutheast Asia 500
Singapore punches above its weight on the Southeast Asia 500, capturing a third of total revenue
By Angelica AngJune 18, 2026
1 hour ago
Comprehensive Car Insurance: What It Covers and When It Pays Off
Personal FinanceInsurance
Comprehensive Car Insurance: What It Covers and When It Pays Off
By Joseph HostetlerJune 18, 2026
2 hours ago
‘Iran just basically put its wish list into this’: the Trump-Iran agreement gives Iran a free pass on nuclear treaty violations pending final deal
Middle EastDonald Trump
‘Iran just basically put its wish list into this’: the Trump-Iran agreement gives Iran a free pass on nuclear treaty violations pending final deal
By Mia OsmonbekovJune 18, 2026
3 hours ago
Sanders stands at a podium with a poster that reads "fight oligarchy"
PoliticsBernie Sanders
‘Make AI work for ordinary people’: Bernie Sanders wants to pay you $1,000 every year from a government stake in AI companies 
By Jacqueline MunisJune 18, 2026
4 hours ago
Fortune 500 Power Moves: Which executives gained and lost power this week
C-SuiteFortune 500 Power Moves
Fortune 500 Power Moves: Which executives gained and lost power this week
By Fortune EditorsJune 18, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
Success
Anne Hathaway says she was spammed with ChatGPT-written thank you notes after hiring for a recent role: ‘Nobody on that list gets that job’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 18, 2026
15 hours ago
The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
Economy
The affordability crisis is so bad that, for the first time ever, both mom and dad are working full-time in most American families
By Jacqueline MunisJune 17, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 17, 2026
1 day ago
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
Big Tech
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
By Tristan BoveJune 15, 2026
3 days ago
'Work hard, stay loyal, and the system will reward you': the Boomer credo is a Gen X betrayal and a Millennial pipe dream
Success
'Work hard, stay loyal, and the system will reward you': the Boomer credo is a Gen X betrayal and a Millennial pipe dream
By Nick LichtenbergJune 16, 2026
2 days ago
Vanguard's alarming state of retirement in 2026: The average American has $167,970 in their account—or they have $44,115
Personal Finance
Vanguard's alarming state of retirement in 2026: The average American has $167,970 in their account—or they have $44,115
By Nick LichtenbergJune 17, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.