Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was elected as Mexico’s first left-wing president in recent times, riding a public revolt against rampant crime, corruption and poverty and handing a crushing defeat to the business-friendly parties who’ve run the country for decades.
The earliest figures announced by the electoral board gave Lopez Obrador 53% of the vote. Ricardo Anaya, leader of a right-left coalition, had about 22% and Jose Antonio Meade, the candidate of the incumbent PRI party, took 16%.
Long before those official results began to emerge, exit polls had showed Lopez Obrador so far ahead of his two main rivals that they conceded defeat — and congratulations had begun to pour in from foreign leaders, including Donald Trump. “I look very much forward to working with him,” the U.S. president said on Twitter.
Congratulations to Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on becoming the next President of Mexico. I look very much forward to working with him. There is much to be done that will benefit both the United States and Mexico!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 2, 2018
In a televised address later on Sunday, Lopez Obrador promised “deep changes” and said that while he’ll respect all Mexicans, “we’ll give preference to the poorest, and to the forgotten.” But he made a point of allaying market concerns too, promising to respect the central bank’s autonomy, avoid raising taxes in real terms, and stay within “legal channels” as he reviews oil deals approved under the outgoing president, Enrique Pena Nieto.
Then he climbed into a white SUV and headed for Mexico City’s historic center, where a huge crowd of jubilant supporters was waiting for him. “We’ll fulfill all our promises,” he told them. “We won’t fail you.”
‘In Question’
Defeated in the last two presidential votes, Lopez Obrador now has a mandate unmatched by recent Mexican leaders to take the country in a new direction. He’s promised to govern as a pragmatist and says he won’t nationalize companies, or quit Nafta. Still, his procession toward victory has alarmed many investors and business leaders.
They worry that the privatization of the energy industry will be rolled back, and spending on social programs will push the country into debt. Lopez Obrador says his program can be funded without deficit spending, with the money saved by eliminating graft. Economists are skeptical. And looming over Mexico’s sea-change is the specter of left-populist governments, from Brazil to Venezuela, that ran their economies into the ground.
“This will be a new era,” said Alonso Cervera, chief Latin America economist at Credit Suisse. “The continuity of the economic model is in question.”
Not Like Trump
The current model, overseen by U.S.-educated technocrats and centered on tight budgets and foreign trade, has won investment-grade credit ratings for Mexico. It’s been less successful at delivering growth in the $1.2 trillion economy, or higher living standards for ordinary Mexicans. About half of the country’s 125 million population live in poverty — and they’re Lopez Obrador’s base.
His victory fits into a wider pattern of anti-establishment politicians appealing to voters left behind by globalization — though Lopez Obrador, who cut his political teeth as an activist defending the rights of indigenous peoples, has little in common with Trump or the right-wing populists who’ve gained power in Europe.
Markets have had plenty of time to prepare for an AMLO win. The peso has declined since mid-April as his poll lead widened. After early gains in election-night trading, it was down 0.6% to 20.03 per dollar at 12:05 a.m. in Mexico City.
One-Man Rule?
Investor jitters may return if Lopez Obrador’s Morena party wins both houses of Congress, something that’s within reach according to some polls, though final results may not be clear for days. Majorities in the legislature would make it easier to advance an agenda that includes building new refineries and railways, and auditing energy contracts from Pena Nieto’s term.
Even before Sunday night’s electoral landslide, one of Mexico’s most prominent historians was worrying about one-man rule. The presidency is already enormously powerful, and Lopez Obrador’s personal charisma will make it even more so, Enrique Krauze said in an interview. “We could face a concentration of power in one person not seen in Mexico for, I would really think, actually, never.”
Only two parties have run the country in modern times: Pena Nieto’s PRI, and Anaya’s PAN. Voters decisively turned their backs on both.
Murder Rate
On the campaign trail, many voters said physical security was their top concern. A decade-long war on drug cartels has pushed the murder rate to record levels (politicians haven’t been spared: more than 120 were killed during the campaign.)
Corruption was also much-cited. Pena Nieto’s allies and family were tainted by a string of scandals. He began his six-year term hailed as an economic reformer and a fresh face, and is ending it with some the lowest approval ratings in the history of the presidency.
Pena Nieto will remain in office until December, because Mexico has a five-month gap between elections and inauguration. But already on Sunday night, as crowds thronged into the streets of Mexico City, there was a sense that power was shifting.
‘Things Will Change’
In the Zocalo, the historic city-center framed by palaces and cathedrals built under Spanish rule, Lopez Obrador’s supporters jammed the streets, dancing to a mariachi band as they waited for the election winner.
The Zocalo is where Lopez Obrador plans to govern from. He says he’ll move the presidential office there from Los Pinos, the palatial compound in an upscale neighborhood where Pena Nieto and his predecessors have been based. The historic square is also where hundreds of thousands of Lopez Obrador’s supporters camped out in the summer of 2006, to protest alleged vote-rigging after his first, failed bid for the presidency.
Among the crowd there toward midnight on Sunday was Monica Angel Pachuca, who had tears in her eyes. “I’ve been waiting for this for 12 years,” she said. “Our children are suffering. They’ve had such a hard life. Now, things will change.”
