Donald Trump is taking responsibility for this year’s forecasted record-high holiday spending.
On Monday, the President-elect tweeted that the “world was gloomy before [he] won,” and that, since the election, “the market is up nearly 10% and Christmas spending is over a trillion dollars.”
Trump didn’t cite sources for these figures and his representative did not respond to Fortune‘s request for comment, but here is how his claims check out.
Christmas spending is over $1 trillion
Holiday sales data is not actually available yet, so it is impossible to fact-check Trump’s claim. However, it is true that estimates for this season indeed hover around $1 trillion, based on a Deloitte University Press survey from October of this year. This number represents a 3.6%–4% percent increase year-over-year in holiday sales from November through January.
Deloitte’s research was completed before Election Day, so the idea that the world was “gloomy” before Trump won and is now suddenly less so is a stretch, particularly if you consider that 75% of Deloitte’s 2016 survey respondents perceived their current situation to be the same or better than this time last year. Meanwhile, only 36% of consumers believe that their financial situation has improved since last year (as of October).
Markets are up nearly 10%
Again, Trump did not cite the source of his claim, nor did he specify the time frame to which he is referring. Fortune looked at market gains since the election gains and since this time last year. Since Election Day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 8.7 %, the S&P 500 is up 5.8% and Nasdaq is up 5.2%—all of which fall short of Trump’s 10% claim.
Moreover, the so-called “Trump Bump” isn’t all that extraordinary when put into historical context. As Fortune‘s Stephen Gandel wrote earlier this month, the stock market rises most of the time following elections (63% of the time over the past 22 elections).
