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Citigroup: Stock Market Will Fall if Donald Trump Is Elected President

November 5, 2016, 3:40 PM UTC
Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump Campaigns In Pennsylvania
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at the Giant Center on Nov. 4, 2016 in Hershey, Penn.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

If Donald Trump wins the presidential election on Tuesday, Citigroup predicts it will negatively affect the stock market because the result would come as a surprise to the financial industry.

The bank predicted Thursday that the S&P 500 would fall by 3% to 5% if Trump is elected, according to a note sent to clients, CNN Money reported. The bank predicted that stocks wouldn’t move significantly if Hillary Clinton wins.

Tobias Levkovich, Citi’s chief U.S. equity analyst, said a September survey of investors showed that Wall Street expects Clinton to be the next president. The bank predicts she has a 75% chance of winning, according to CNN Money.

“However, if Donald Trump were to win, that outcome would have been unexpected and thereby may cause a jump in the equity risk premium,” Levkovich wrote.