“It’s getting close to as good as it gets,” Dimon told Wall Street analysts after announcing results for the second quarter of 2026. “We just don’t know how long it’s going to last.”

It was Dimon’s second warning of the day. Ahead of the call, in remarks tied to the bank’s earnings results, he said risk is “shifting below the surface like tectonic plates”, citing geopolitical wars, sticky inflation and global fiscal deficits, in particular.

But the results underpinning those warnings were the best JPMorgan has ever posted, including second-quarter net income of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 a share, lifted by a $4.6 billion gain on its Visa stake. Core profit, stripping out one-time items, was still $16.9 billion, or $6.14 a share, well above Wall Street’s $5.80 estimate. 

Rival Goldman Sachs beat even bigger, netting $6.63 billion and diluted earnings per share of $20.98—up 92% year over year—exceeding the $14.54 analysts expected. Its revenue of $20.34 billion jumped 39% higher than a year ago as well. Both banks played a role in SpaceX’s historic IPO, but Goldman CEO David Solomon told CNBC that SpaceX was “immaterial” to the bank’s earnings showing. 

The banks’ earnings landed on a market already on edge. 

Oil surged again Tuesday—Brent climbed to above $87 a barrel—after President Trump said the U.S. was “reinstating” a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a conflict that has run for more than a week and included U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. However, inflation slowed to 3.5%, beating expectations and offering some relief to consumers ahead of a momentous Federal Reserve decision in late July.  

Dimon’s warnings tap into growing fears of the AI boom mirroring historic financial crises

This wasn’t the first time the banking titan reacted uneasily to things going well. 

In late May, Dimon told a gathering of the leaders of the world’s largest companies and top-tier financial analysts that markets were “gung ho”, but that it reminded him of the same excitement before financial crashes like the 2008 recession.

“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon said. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” Needless to say, historic crashes followed each of those exuberant periods.

That same market activity of buoyant investors seemed to power JPMorgan and Goldman’s blowout quarterly results because exuberance often translates into revenue lines for those big banks. When clients trade more, issue stock, sell companies or chase financing, the two competing banks collect fees. That’s why Dimon’s caution cuts both ways: the same investor enthusiasm that can raise fears of an overheated market can also produce profits for JPMorgan and Goldman, which benefit when trading and dealmaking surge. 

The terms has echoed in financial history ever since former Fed chair Alan Greenspan uttered the phrase “irrational exuberance” in 1996, although he told Fortune all the way back in 1959 that “over-exuberance” was an issue of concern in markets.