• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

2

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

3

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic

1

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting

2

After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup

3

Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
CommentaryMoore's Law

What Apple’s Deal With Intel Says About the End of Moore’s Law

By
Howard Yu
Howard Yu
and
Bethany Cianciolo
Bethany Cianciolo
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Howard Yu
Howard Yu
and
Bethany Cianciolo
Bethany Cianciolo
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 18, 2016, 10:30 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Intel has been inside computers ever since the advancement of PCs. But for the first time, the company has jumped ship to mobile, as it announced last week that Apple (AAPL) will use Intel’s modem chips for the next iPhone, ditching Qualcomm (QCOM) in the deal. But this is not a cause for celebration, even for Intel. The imminent battle among high-tech firms has been caused by a deeper industry problem: Computers will soon stop getting any faster.

It is an open secret in the IT world that the microprocessor—the very heart that goes into motion when you turn on your computer—is approaching the fundamental limit of smallness. As smaller devices are more susceptible to manufacturing errors, ever-higher levels of precision are required. The cost of manufacturing equipment thus spirals upward astronomically, and major players have been shelling out billions just to keep the game going. But when that stops—that is, when computers stop running faster and faster as in the past—all the flurry of product hype, from virtual reality headsets to Internet of Things and artificial intelligence, may well grid to a halt. Machines, after all, won’t replace humans anytime soon.

In 1965, Intel (INTC) co-founder Gordon Moore made a bold prediction about the exponential growth of computing power. He observed that the number of transistors could be doubled every two years by shrinking their size inside of a microprocessor. And since transistor density correlates with computing power, computing power correspondingly doubles every two years. Intel has since delivered on that promise and immortalized it in the name of Moore’s Law.

 

 

Take an imaginary letter-size paper. Fold it in half, then fold it a second time, and then a third. The thickness of the stack doubles exponentially every time. If you are skillful enough to fold the same piece of paper 42 times, you will have a tower that stretches to the moon. That’s why a single iPhone today can command the equivalent computing power of the entire spacecraft for the Apollo moon mission in 1969. Indeed, without Moore’s Law, there would be no Google (GOOG), no Facebook (FB), no Uber, and no Airbnb. The entire Silicon Valley would be, well, just a valley.

Those 50 years of clockwork progress are rapidly slowing.

Just four months ago, Intel disclosed in a regulatory filing that it is slowing the pace in launching new chips. Its latest transistor is down to only about 100 atoms wide. The fewer atoms composing a transistor, the harder it is to manipulate. Following the existing trajectory, by early 2020, transistors should have just 10 atoms. At that scale, electronic properties will be messed up by quantum uncertainties, making any devices hopelessly unreliable. In other words, engineers and scientists are hitting the fundamental limit of physics.

Samsung, Intel, and Microsoft (MSFT) have been shelling out $37 billion just to keep the magic going. “From an economic standpoint, Moore’s Law is over,” said Linley Gwennap, who runs an analyst firm in Silicon Valley.

Fortunately, raw computing power is not everything. Think about what happened recently in the auto industry. The Tesla (TSLA) Model S doesn’t go any faster than a Toyota (TM) Lexus, but they are very different cars, with innovations ranging from electric engines to batteries and much else. In the IT world, despite 50 years of the staggering increase of computing brawn, commensurate development in software has taken a backseat. Charles Simonyi, a computer scientist who oversaw the development of Microsoft Word and Excel, said in 2013 that software had failed to leverage the advances that have occurred in hardware. It is too tempting to rely on hardware’s brute force to mask inelegant software design.

With the departure of Moore’s Law, the semiconductor industry will no longer have a tangible road map every two years to coordinate its hundreds of computer manufacturers and suppliers. The dismantling of an existing industry order will usher in a new era where innovation is more nuanced, less structured, and increasingly complicated. Software firms will dabble in hardware; hardware makers will make niche products. Facebook and Amazon (AMZN) are already designing their own data centers, Microsoft has started making its own chips, and Intel is now jumping into mobile.

[fortune-brightcove videoid=4879609129001]

 

The 50-year saga of Moore’s Law has not only delivered a world unimaginable a few generations ago, but also taught us an important lesson about industry dynamics. Industry competition looks less like a boxing ring. The pecking order among players doesn’t change much during normal times. But when disruption occurs, like in the onslaught of digitalization or the sharing economy, new windows of opportunity open.

The end of Moore’s Law will not be the end of the IT world, but it will demand new ways to make better machines. As for the rest of us, here is the really good news: The advent of super intelligent machines that “could spell the end of the human race,” as physicist Stephen Hawking recently put it, has now been postponed.

Howard Yu is professor of strategic management and innovation at IMD. He specializes in technological innovation, strategic transformation and change management. In 2015 Professor Yu was featured in Poets & Quants as one of the Best 40 Under 40 Professors. He received his doctoral degree at Harvard Business School.

About the Authors
By Howard Yu
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Bethany Cianciolo
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

Asia’s defense boom is rewiring the global arms supply chain
Commentaryarms, weapons, and defense
Asia’s defense boom is rewiring the global arms supply chain
By Chris OberoiJune 24, 2026
9 hours ago
steve
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Steve Case: America was built by entrepreneurs. Here’s how we keep that edge for the next 250 years
By Steve CaseJune 24, 2026
17 hours ago
t
CommentaryWhite House
Trump mistakes the bully pulpit for bullying leadership — history’s villains were never heroes
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven TianJune 24, 2026
18 hours ago
mg
CommentaryHealth
The ‘tech neck’ time bomb: why 43 million young Americans could cripple U.S. health care within a generation
By Michael GerlingJune 24, 2026
18 hours ago
sb
Commentaryclimate change
The climate policy triangle: why leaders can no longer choose between growth, security and sustainability
By Sebastian BuckupJune 23, 2026
1 day ago
brett
CommentaryManagement
Middle managers aren’t going extinct—they’re evolving into something more powerful
By Brett HurtJune 23, 2026
2 days ago

Most Popular

The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
Economy
The Pentagon said Iran War costs $29 billion, but the real cost is closer to $200 billion—and counting
By Jacqueline MunisJune 24, 2026
23 hours ago
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
Success
After forcing workers back to the office, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are now letting their staff work remotely—but only for the World Cup
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 23, 2026
2 days ago
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
Success
Now worth $200 million, Sarah Jessica Parker credits being ‘one of eight kids that struggled financially’ for her hunger, ambition, and work ethic
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 24, 2026
23 hours ago
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
Retail
Amazon's record Prime Day masks a darker truth: Americans are spending more and getting less
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
15 hours ago
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America ‘doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire’
Asia
Ray Dalio just finished a 10-day trip to China. He says global leaders know America ‘doesn’t have what it takes to fight to maintain its empire’
By Nick LichtenbergJune 24, 2026
16 hours ago
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of gold as of June 23, 2026
By Danny BakstJune 23, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.