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FinanceTerm Sheet

Mary Meeker: Internet user growth is slowing

By
Dan Primack
Dan Primack
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By
Dan Primack
Dan Primack
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May 28, 2014, 5:11 PM ET
© 2010 Bloomberg Finance LP

FORTUNE — Mary Meeker, the longtime Morgan Stanley (MS) tech analyst who now leads growth-stage investments for venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins, has released her annual Internet Trends report. She also is presenting her findings at the Code Conference in California.

Meeker’s top-line findings are that while both the number of Internet users and smartphone subscribers grew in 2013, the rate of growth is declining. Tablet user and mobile data traffic growth, however, are both ongoing rocket ships.

For tablets, the 52% shipment pickup in 2013 is a high rate of growth than ever seen for personal computers, which topped out at around 45% in 2007. More importantly, there is still lots of room for additional penetration, with both desktop and PC users still more than 50% higher than tablet users. As for mobile usage in 2014 (as a percentage of overall Internet usage), all global regions experienced double-digit growth. The low marks were Europe (16% vs 8% growth in 2013), South America (17 vs 6%), and North America (19% vs 11%), while the high mark were Africa (38% vs 23%) and Asia (37% vs 18%).

In terms of advertising, Meeker still sees huge opportunities for mobile — more than $30 billion in the U.S. alone — particularly given that mobile app revenue still beats out mobile ad revenue.

Meeker also addresses the issues of tech valuations, arguing that while there is indeed excess, it is not yet comparable to what we saw during the dotcom days of 1999 and 2000. For example, IPO issuance and venture capital investment volume are both much lower. So is the tech sector’s market value as a percentage of the S&P 500 (19% today vs. 35% in March 2000). One thing she does not address in her report, however, are rising private valuations — particularly for the types of pre-IPO companies that she invests in for Kleiner Perkins. Hopefully she’ll do so from the conference stage.

Here is her full report:

[slideshare id=35210772&doc=internettrends2014-052814-pdf-140528064345-phpapp02]

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By Dan Primack
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