Global warming may have contributed to the extreme weather which led to the fatal sinking of a yacht off the Italian coast, the nation’s meteorological society president believes.
British-flagged yacht the Bayesian capsized and sank off the coast of Sicily on Monday.
One man has been confirmed dead while six others—including the boat’s owner, British tech tycoon Mike Lynch—are missing.
The boat had been carrying 22 people—15 of whom have now been rescued—and reportedly tipped when high winds broke the mast of the yacht, tilting it toward the water, which led to the vessel’s sinking.
Luca Mercalli, an Italian climatologist, believes the storm the Bayesian was caught in was caused by either a waterspout or a downburst.
A waterspout is a whirlwind of water and spray—essentially a tornado—over areas like the sea, while a downburst is an intense downward pressure of airflow that is often accompanied by thunderstorms or lashing rain.
Witnesses speaking to Italian news agency Ansa recounted battling high winds in the moments before the Bayesian vanished below the waves.
Mercalli said it is not yet clear whether the violent storm was caused by a waterspout or downburst, telling Reuters: “We don’t know which it was because it all happened in the dark, in the early hours of the morning, so we have no photographs.”
He added downbursts, in particular, may be connected to global warming, and he fears they will only get worse.
“The sea surface temperature around Sicily was around 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit), which is almost three degrees more than normal,” he explained. “This creates an enormous source of energy that contributes to these storms.
“So we can’t say that this is all due to climate change, but we can say that it has an amplifying effect.”
The world’s oceans have grown significantly warmer since scientists began keeping records.
Scientists measure heat in joules, but because the ocean is so large and heating so quickly, experts use zettajoules to calibrate their readings.
According to NASA, in 1959 the globe’s seas were measured at six zettajoules.
By 2021 this had increased to 360 zettajoules, with 90% of the world’s global warming happening at sea.
The data shows the ocean only continuing to heat further, so it’s perhaps no surprise that Mercalli believes the Bayesian tragedy will not be the last.
“Climate-driven catastrophes in Italy will become more frequent and more intense,” he added.
The Bayesian rescue effort
The group of 12 passengers and 10 crew were traveling the coast of Italy reportedly celebrating the recent acquittal of the boat’s owner, software millionaire Lynch.
Lynch had recently finished a criminal fraud case in the U.S. over the sale of his firm, Autonomy, to Hewlett-Packard.
Autonomy was sold for $11 billion in 2011, but that figure was reduced by $8.8 billion within the first year of HP’s ownership.
Following the battle with the Silicon Valley giant, the man dubbed “Britain’s Bill Gates” set sail with his wife—Angela Bacares, who is reportedly among those rescued—his 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, and his financial and legal advisors to celebrate the end of the case.
However, on Monday morning, the 184-foot sailboat reportedly sank within minutes of capsizing after it was hit by the sudden and ferocious storm.
Lynch and his teenage daughter are among those missing.
Rescue specialists are also searching for Morgan Stanley International bank chairman Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy, as well as Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo.
Speaking to the BBC on Monday, Francesco Venuto, a spokesperson for Sicily’s civil protection agency, said that rescue teams believed some bodies “must” still be in the boat.
“We’ve been searching all day with helicopters and boats, we’ve found nothing. That wouldn’t make sense. In these conditions, we should have found something by now,” he noted.
