The UBS Preview Club in Union Square is a red leather couch-mahogany wood place, and as good a spot as any to inhale coffee at 9 AM.
Since moving back to New York, I’ve resolved to cover private equity more (after all, New York is the private equity capital of…everywhere). So, that’s how I landed at the PitchBook’s 2026 Private Equity Outlook event earlier this week.
And a couple things are really clear: First, that the last couple years in private equity have been complicated, and that heading into this year there’s a lot of “there’s good news, and there’s bad news.”
The good news: Exits are up, with 2025 coming in as the second-best year for exits ever surpassed only by 2021, according to PitchBook data. That amounts to just over 1,600 exits, and nearly $730 billion in terms of exit value.
“While it’s a really nice rebound, you really need to see that momentum sustained in the year ahead to make up for that lost time from 2022 through 2024,” said Kyle Walters, PitchBook private equity research analyst. “A lot of sponsors remained on the sidelines, waiting for what they deemed to be a better exit environment, and now it finally seems that that exit environment has arrived.”
On the other hand, fundraising is down. In fact, 2025 marked the worst year for capital formation since 2020, Walters told the audience. “We kind of call it the success of the few and the challenges of the many,” he said.
In short, though exits are up, there are still too many PE-backed companies that are rapidly maturing—and need to find an exit in order for their backers to raise their next round. (Remember: Unlike venture capital, private equity isn’t a system structured to assume failure—for a small firm, one default may mean you can’t raise again, full stop.)
Some sectors to watch out for, as Ron Kahn, Lincoln International managing director, pointed out include software where “ARR is not materializing” as expected, and energy. Power and energy could see big wins, or losses, he told the audience.
“People have made big bets on power and energy,” said Kahn. “I don’t know where that’s going to go, but it’s one way or another. It’s probably binary.”
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
X: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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VENTURE CAPITAL
- ElevenLabs, a London, U.K.-based AI lab, raised $500 million in Series D funding. Sequoia Capital led the round and was joined by a16z, ICONIQ, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and others.
- Bedrock Robotics, a San Francisco-based developer of autonomous technology designed for the construction industry, raised $270 million in Series B funding. CapitalG and the Valor Atreides AI Fund led the round and were joined by Xora, 8VC, Eclipse, Emergence Capital, Perry Creek Capital, and others.
- Third Arc Bio, a Philadelphia, Pa.-based antibody therapeutics company, raised $52 million in a Series A extension. a16z and Omega Funds led the round and were joined by others.
- Adaption Labs, a San Francisco-based developer of AI models designed to learn and adapt continuously, raised $50 million in seed funding. Emergence Capital Partners led the round and was joined by Mozilla Ventures, Fifty Years, Threshold Ventures, and others.
- Nomagic, a Warsaw, Poland-based warehouse robotics company, raised $10 million in a Series B extension. Cogito Capital Partners led the round.
- Apeiron Labs, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of autonomous observation networks designed for collecting ocean data, raised $9.5 million in Series A funding. S2G Investments, RA Capital Management, and DYNE Ventures led the round.
- Fibr AI, a San Francisco-based developer of an AI platform designed to autonomously adapt websites for users, raised $7.5 million in seed funding. Accel led the round and was joined by WillowTree Ventures, MVP Ventures, and others.
- Expert Intelligence, a Santa Clara, Calif.-based developer of AI systems designed to automate decision-making in laboratory environments, raised $4.7 million in seed funding. Sierra Ventures led the round and was joined by TSVC and Acorn Pacific Ventures.
- Linda AI, a London, U.K.-based developer of agentic AI technology for dental practices, raised £2.3 million ($3 million) in pre-seed funding. 6 Degrees Capital led the round.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- Prime Matter Labs, a portfolio company of Monogram Capital Partners, acquired Mana Products, a New York City-based beauty products manufacturer. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Superior Health Holdings, a portfolio company of Renovus Capital Partners, acquired Pulse Home Health and Hospice, a Covington, La.-based home health and hospice care provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOS
- Clear Street Group, a New York City-based capital markets firm, plans to raise up to $1.047 billion in an offering of 23.8 million shares priced between $40 and $44 on the Nasdaq. Prysm Capital backs the company.
- Veradermics Therapeutics, a New Haven, Conn.-based hair loss treatment company, plans to raise up to $256.7 million in an offering of 15.1 million shares priced at $17 on the New York Stock Exchange. Longitude Capital, SR One Capital Management, J.W. Childs Associates, Suvretta Capital, Viking Global, and Citadel back the company.
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
- BayHawk Capital, a Boston, Mass.-based private equity firm, raised $616 million in funding for its first fund focused on tech and essential services businesses.
- Shore Capital Partners, a Chicago, Ill.-based private equity firm, raised $400 million for its second fund focused on companies in the industrial sector.
- SNAK Venture Partners, a Chicago, Ill.-based venture capital fund, raised $50 million for its first fund focused on marketplace companies.
PEOPLE
- San Francisco Equity Partners, a San Francisco-based private equity firm, promoted Andrew Poley to principal and Marc Berbert to vice president.
