The housing market in Florida is in the midst of a major change: Inventory is down for the first time in 110 weeks, according to Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen. But it’s not for the reason you might think.
Florida’s housing market was one of the hottest during the pandemic due to the state’s appeal to remote workers, retirees, and investors who relocated from high-cost states like New York and California seeking more space, lower taxes, and lenient COVID restrictions. Between March 2020 and June 2022, prices rose a whopping 51%. Demand was high, so inventory was low.
But now, Florida’s inventory levels are dwindling for a very different reason. Experts say that it’s not revived demand, but rampant delistings and fewer new listings that are causing the change. Home prices are down about 5.4% year over year, according to Zillow data.
“Low prices and low demand are making people who aren’t in a hurry simply withdraw listings rather than sell at a low price,” Alexei Morgado, a Florida real estate agent and founder of real-estate exam prep company Lexawise, told Fortune. “Inventory is down, but not because of big sales, but rather because of [delistings] and slow demand. So it’s all a mixed bag.”
Realtor.com data for August show some parts of Florida saw nearly 60 homes delisted for every 100 newly listed homes. Miami had the highest delisting-to-listing ratio with about 59, while Tampa had 33 and Orlando had 28.
Overall, the number of single-family homes for sale in Florida fell from more than 100,000 in the spring to about 96,000, after years of rapid growth, according to Simonsen, who is also the founder and president of real-estate analytics firm Altos Research.
This downward trend is a signal the market is “clearing out” the would-be sellers, Jenna Stauffer, a Florida-based real-estate broker and global real estate advisor for Sotheby’s International Realty, told Fortune. The ones who needed to sell have most likely already done so, even if it meant lowering prices or offering concessions.
Stauffer said the pullback is “healthy,” though, because it helps reset home prices and balances out supply and demand.
“It also shows that sellers are becoming more in tune with market conditions,” she said.
Is the Florida housing market crashing or correcting?
While experts say Florida’s housing market is experiencing some major changes, they aren’t indicative of a crash—which would be a swift and severe decline in prices driven by an imbalance of supply and demand.
Rather, experts say the trend of inventory declines is a sign the Florida housing market is correcting itself.
“Higher inventory had been putting downward pressure on prices and giving buyers the upper hand,” Stauffer said. “Buyers had so many options, no urgency and plenty of time to negotiate.”
But now that inventory is tightening, the dynamic could start to shift, she said, because buyers will lose a little bit of that leverage they had and sellers could regain “a little” power.
Stauffer also said it’s “not a crash in Florida, but a reset.”
Sellers “have to recognize that this is a different market than a few years ago,” she added. “Demand isn’t the same and supply isn’t the same. It’s forcing everyone to a more realistic middle ground.”
And for that reason, it may not be the best time to sell your home in Florida, Morgado said—but it could be the right time to make a purchase.
“You can sell if necessary, of course, but wait if you can,” he said. “And for buying: You can get [a] good price, with lower rates and discounts, so take advantage of [that] now.”
