For the first time since 2016, America’s homeownership rate has tipped into negative territory, signaling a subtle but profound shift in the nation’s housing dynamics, Redfin reports in its new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. In the second quarter of 2025, the number of U.S. homeowner households fell ever so slightly, by 0.1% year over year to 86.2 million, while renter households surged by 2.6% to 46.4 million—one of the largest increases in recent memory. It shows the inevitable result of the long flatline in the housing market as mortgage rates more than doubled between January 2021 and October 2023.
Redfin puts it bluntly: America’s homeowner population has stopped growing. Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, attributes this to “rising home prices, high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [which] have made it increasingly difficult to own a home.” Zhao also noted secular shifts in the economy that may be playing a role. “People are also getting married and starting families later, which means they’re buying homes later—another factor that may be at play.”
At first glance, a drop of 0.1% may seem small, but it marks a halt to a steady climb and suggests deeper challenges roiling the market. The median home sale price rose 1.4% year-over-year in July to $443,867, the highest July figure on record. Meanwhile, mortgage rates now stand at 6.56%, more than double the lows recorded during the pandemic—a time when homebuying seemed to be accessible for many. Redfin notes that this is costing millions of Americans key wealth-building opportunities, as choosing to keep renting rather than buying a home means they are forgoing home equity.
Ritholtz Wealth Management COO Nick Maggiulli talked to Fortune in early August about his new book, “The Wealth Ladder,” but also what he calls the “broken housing market.” His research shows that America has never had so many millionaire renters before, and while he didn’t disclose his personal income, he said he is one of the successful Americans deciding that renting is the right approach. “What that means for me personally is that I’m just gonna be renting for a lot longer,” Maggiulli said, “because it doesn’t make sense to buy, especially where rates are, prices, everything.” The current state of the housing market just “doesn’t add up” for his situation.
Renters surge as buyers hesitate
While homeowners flatline, the renter population is surging. An increase of 2.6% in renter households brings the total to 46.4 million—one of the biggest jumps seen in years. To be sure, Redfin flags that these are minor but notable shifts in a largely static wider picture, as the homeownership rate has remained relatively steady, 65% as of the second quarter, down from 65.6% a year earlier, while the rentership rate was 35%, up slightly from 34.4% a year earlier.
The Redfin report also highlights sharp geographic disparities. In several major metropolitan areas, homeownership lags far behind the national rate. Los Angeles posts a homeownership rate of just 46.4%, with renters comprising more than half the market (53.6%), and New York City is similar, at 49.4% and 50.6%, respectively. San Diego, Las Vegas, San Francisco, and San Jose have homeownership rates just above 50% but are similarly dominated by renters, exposing how affordability issues in urban centers are tilting the balance away from ownership.
By contrast, some regions buck the trend. North Port, Fla., boasts the highest homeownership rate among large metros at 79.5% (rentership 20.5%), while Baton Rouge, La., and Charleston, S.C., top 75% homeownership. Like much of the Sunbelt, these areas continue to attract buyers, often drawn by lower prices and robust housing supply.
Although mortgage rates have started to fall in recent weeks, easing slightly from the peak of over 7% earlier this year, affordability remains a central concern. Rising prices, high rates, and economic uncertainty are combining to keep many aspiring homeowners on the sidelines, while those looking for homes contend with intense competition and tight supply.
It’s part of a wider economic picture where President Donald Trump is attempting a bold restructure of the American economy with dramatically higher tariffs on many long-time trade partners, resulting in uncertainty for business and an increasingly frozen jobs market, especially as the legality of the tariffs seems headed for the Supreme Court. The tariffs also look to have driven up sticky inflation, with Trump pressuring Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, in great part to get the housing market moving again. All the while, much of the growth in the stock market is driven by tech and AI stocks, especially a massive nationwide investment in data centers, with many investors beginning to see signs of a bubble that may end up popping before any other shoes drop.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.