Confidence is a very multi-faceted word, if you think about it.
It can be an adjective describing someone who’s assured in their value and abilities. It can also refer to “keeping confidence,” the idea of holding someone’s trust or keeping something private. Confidence can describe a general feeling of certainty, and there are also confidence (con) men, who create trust, only to exploit it.
I’ve been thinking about the sort of prismatic quality of the word as I’ve been looking through the results of Semaphore’s 17th annual confidence survey of private equity, venture capital, hedge fund, and other professionals. (Semaphore is a firm that takes over troubled private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds on behalf of limited partners.)
In terms of “sense of certainty,” it’s not a rousingly confident time for dealmakers assessing the world around them. At least—according to this survey with 910 respondents across the private markets—there’s limited confidence in the wider political and economic landscapes; and for many respondents, in their ability to even form an opinion at all. (In the responses below, neutral responses make up the difference between those who are and who are not confident.)
Some key results on how dealmakers are thinking about the broader climate:
– 8% of dealmakers said they had confidence in Congress, versus 64% who said said they are not confident
– 14% of dealmakers expressed confidence in Trump’s economic team, compared to 52% who said they are not confident
– 38% of dealmakers said they’re confident about the U.S. economy, while 25% were not confident
– 8% of survey respondents said that they’re confident in the international economy, while 29% said they’re not confident
Here are some of the specific things respondents had to say:
Great opportunities in the U.S. and select regions like the Middle East across the value chain. Strong U.S. economic indicators and low unemployment. Local high demand for services and consumables.
You quoted me and the Beatles last year. The economy got better and better, but I’m not sure our nation will survive long enough for me to enjoy it!
I think our industry is stable because it’s regulated and reputations matter. I’m wary of Trump economic and foreign policies driving inflation, including pushing for rate cuts.
I absolutely think AI needs to be seriously managed—it’s not the answer for everything.
This year’s survey also provides a useful temperature check on some hot-button issues that have become even hotter in the first few weeks of the Trump administration.
Take the carried interest tax “loophole,” beloved by VCs, PE, and hedge fund managers, and which Trump unexpectedly flagged as one of his targets for tax reform. While the survey was conducted before Trump’s surprise announcement on carried interest on Thursday, the results give a sense of where many industry insiders stand on the issue:
– 49% of dealmakers said that favorable tax treatment of carried interest income should be eliminated, while 51% say it shouldn’t be.
As companies roll back DEI policies, a decisive majority of dealmakers appear to be believe that the root issues behind DEI efforts remain a problem:
– 72% of dealmakers said yes, that “sexual misconduct, harassment and gender bias [are] a problem in our industry,” while 28% said no.
– 60% of dealmakers said yes, “structural racism [is] an inherent problem in our industry,” while 40% said no.
And, of course, there’s “first buddy” Elon Musk:
– 81% of dealmakers said yes, “Elon Musk [has] undue influence on American domestic and foreign policy,” while 9% say no.
ICYMI…Speaking of Musk, the world’s richest man has reportedly led a group of investors in a $97 billion bid for OpenAI—which was promptly and publicly rejected by Sam Altman on X. We’ll no doubt be reading more about this is-it-real-or-is-it-troll bid in the days ahead, but in the meantime you can read up on the first chapter here.
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
X:@agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Nina Ajemian curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.Subscribe here.
VENTURE DEALS
- Stellaromics, a Boston-based 3D spatial biology technology developer, raised $80 million in Series B funding. Catalyst4 led the round and was joined by Stanford University Ventures.
- Epicore Biosystems, a Cambridge, Mass.-based sweat-sensing wearable technology developer, raised $26 million in Series B funding from the Steele Foundation for Hope.
- Superlogic, a Miami-based experiential rewards platform, raised $13.7 million in Series A funding. Powerledger led the round and was joined by Sangha Capital, 10SQ, Nima Capital, and others.
- Pendulum, a Seattle-based AI-powered supply chain planning platform, raised $11 million in funding from Lowercarbon Capital, Cross Border Impact Ventures, Decisive Point, and others.
- Nirmata, a San Jose-based security, policy, and governance solutions provider, raised $9.6 million in funding. Peak XV Surge led the round and was joined by Dallas Venture Capital, Dreamit Ventures, and existing investors Z5 Capital and Uncorrelated Ventures.
- Datalign, a Cambridge, Mass.-based AI-powered financial advisors matching platform, raised $9 million in seed funding from Link Ventures.
- Human.org, a San Francisco-based human and AI interaction safety lab, raised $7.3 million in pre-seed funding from HF0, Soma Capital, Spearhead, angel investors, and others.
- ETFbook, a Zurich-based exchange-traded fund data and analytics platform, raised €4 million ($4.1 million) in Series A funding from BlackFin Capital Partners.
- Self Inspection, a San Diego-based AI-powered vehicle inspections platform, raised $3 million in seed funding. Costanoa Ventures and DVx Ventures led the round and were joined by Westlake Financial.
- Future AGI, a San Francisco-based AI evaluation and optimization platform, raised $1.6 million in pre-seed funding. Powerhouse Ventures and Snow Leopard Ventures led the round and were joined by Angellist Quant Fund, Swadharma Source Ventures, Saka Ventures, angel investors, and others.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- FTV Capital invested $45 million in Validus Risk Management, a London-based financial risk management platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Arcadia, backed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Sustainable Growth Equity Team and others, acquired RPD Energy, a Houston-based renewable energy company. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Gemspring Capital Management acquired Creative Labs, an Eagan, Minn.-based haircare and skincare products developer. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- J.C. Flowers acquired a majority stake in Infinite Investment Systems, an Ontario-based wealth management solutions provider. Financial terms were not disclosed.
EXITS
- Columbus McKinnon agreed to acquire Kito Crosby, an Arlington, Texas-based lifting and securement solutions provider, from KKR for $2.7 billion in cash.
OTHER
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
- Thomson Reuters, a Toronto-based news and technology company, raised $150 million for its second corporate venture capital fund focused on technology companies in sectors including legal technology, tax and accounting, fintech, and more.
PEOPLE
- Clearvision Ventures, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based growth equity firm, promoted Thomas Englis to partner.
- Yellow Wood Partners, a Boston-based private equity firm, promoted Ammu Mandalap to principal.
