Stripe will never go public.
Gotcha, see, now you’re reading. I actually don’t know if Stripe will go public in 2024 or not, but it certainly seems like everyone under the Silicon Valley sun is hoping that a Stripe IPO is imminent. But for now, investors have to settle for the secondary markets—where recently the sprawling fintech company’s shares have been soaring.
In January, and especially over the last two weeks, Stripe shares have been in massive demand, three secondary markets insiders tell Fortune.
“I have bidders at $29,” said Rainmaker Securities CEO Glen Anderson. “Activity is definitely up for Stripe and, importantly, the price is on the rise.”
Rolling back the clock—on Jan. 18, 2023, Stripe was trading at an average of $22 a share, implying a valuation of almost $55 billion, according to Rainmaker data. On Jan. 28 of this year, Stripe shares were trading at an average of $28 a share, suggesting a valuation glow-up to nearly $70 billion.
Nice as it sounds, $70 billion remains way off from the $95 billion Stripe was valued at in 2021, crowning it for a brief moment as the U.S.’s most valuable startup. Last year, the company did a down round, raising $6.5 billion to the tune of a $50 billion valuation.
“The stock was very depressed for a while,” said Next Round Capital founder Ken Smythe. “Previously, they did that $95 billion round, and then on the secondary markets, they ramped up to $200 billion for a while.”
But by 2023, as the economy soured, Smythe saw Stripe shares priced at a 75% discount “to what we could have bought it for three years ago.”
Now, in 2024, the Stripe sale is over, and Smythe has seen sellers looking to move Stripe shares at a little over $30 a pop. This level of rising demand over such a short period is uncommon, experts tell me. So, for whatever reason, Stripe bullishness is back.
“In January alone we saw more secondary market buyer interest in Stripe than in all of Q4 2023,” Caplight CEO and cofounder Javier Avalos told me via email.
Stripe declined comment for this piece, but someone over there knows these trades are happening—the company does have to approve them, as is common practice. Which begs the question: What is Stripe up to?
The good news is that something is probably happening, since the secondary markets tend to be events-driven. Investors try to get in ahead of news or build a position before big announcements drop. Theoretically, the company could be pursuing a fundraise or a tender offer, it could be an acquisition target, or Stripe could be, at long last, at the public markets’ door.
Now, here’s the bad news: We have no idea which of those three it is that could be driving Stripe’s secondaries spike right now (if any at all). For my part, I’m bearish on Stripe going public this year—the 2024 IPO window will be narrowed by the election, and I don’t see even worst-case-scenario Stripe as cash-strapped enough to rush—but who knows.
Maybe Stripe will go public after all.
See you tomorrow,
Allie Garfinkle
Twitter: @agarfinks
Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com
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Joe Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.
VENTURE DEALS
- Züm, a Redwood City, Calf.-based transportation service for students, raised $140 million in Series E funding. GIC led the round and was joined by Climate Investment, Sequoia, and SoftBank Vision Fund 2.
- Harbor, a Dallas, Texas-based developer of infant care technology including baby monitors, raised $3.7 million in seed funding. Trust Ventures led the round and was joined by Morrison Segar, Capital Factory, and others.
- Velar, a Panama City, Panama-based bitcoin DeFi platform, raised $3.5 million in funding from Bitcoin Startup Lab, CMS Holdings, Black Edge Capital, GBV, Cypher Capital, and others.
PRIVATE EQUITY
- OpenGate Capital acquired Player One Amusement Group, a Toronto, Canada-based amusement services provider, from Cineplex, for CAD $155 million ($115.2 million).
- Avathon Capital acquired Magical Beginnings, a Boston, Mass.-based network of early education centers. Financial terms were not disclosed.
EXITS
- Instructure Holdings (NYSE: INST) acquired Parchment, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based network for exchanging academic and professional credentials, from Brentwood Associates for $835 million.
- Ryder System acquired Cardinal Logistics, a Concord, N.C.-based provider of fleet services and transportation management, from H.I.G. Capital. Financial terms were not disclosed.
OTHER
- Guardian Capital (TSE: GCG) acquired Sterling Capital Management, a Charlotte, N.C.-based provider of investment advisory services, from Truist Financial Corporation (NYS: TFC). Financial terms were not disclosed.
IPOS
- BBB Foods, a Mexico City, Mexico-based grocery store operator, plans to raise up to $463.7 million in an offering of 28.1 million shares priced between $14.50 and $16.50. The company posted $2.4 billion in revenue for the year ending September 30, 2023. Quilvest Capital Partners and BBB Investments Group back the company.
- Alto Neuroscience, a Los Altos, Calif.-based biopharmaceutical company developing depression and schizophrenia treatments, raised $129 million in an offering of 8 million shares priced at $16.
- Fractyl Health, a Lexington, Mass.-based developer of type 2 diabetes and obesity therapies, raised $110 million in an offering of 7.3 million shares priced at $15.
FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS
- Generate Capital, a San Francisco-based investment firm, raised $1.5 billion for its fund focused on sustainable infrastructure projects.
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