Decoupling from China is out; “de-risking” from China is in.
The G7, the collection of rich economies including the U.S., debuted a new approach toward China at the group’s annual summit in May, hoping to imply that the West was merely interested in reducing its dependence on the world’s second-largest economy, rather than trying to constrain Beijing more broadly.
But the CEO of Temasek Holdings, the Singaporean state-owned investor trying to navigate worsening tensions between Beijing and Washington, doesn’t see the two terms as all that different.
De-risking “overlaps” with decoupling, and so the difference “is just semantics, in some respects,” Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, CEO of Singapore-based Temasek Holdings, said on Tuesday in Singapore at a dinner leading up to the Fortune Global Forum in Abu Dhabi, Nov. 27–29.
Pillay has served as CEO of Temasek since October 2021; he was previously head of the state-owned investor’s international division. Temasek Holdings is Singapore’s state-owned investment company and is more active in managing its portfolio than most sovereign wealth funds. The company’s portfolio was worth $288 billion as of March 31, the end of its fiscal year.
The idea of “de-risking” from China has picked up steam over the past year, following Beijing’s tough pandemic controls and its crackdown on the private sector. Companies are trying to reduce their exposure to China by either diversifying supply chains or investing in other emerging markets. Investors are also timid toward China owing to new rules imposed by the U.S. and its allies, including a possible ban on U.S. entities investing in Chinese companies that operate in areas like semiconductors and quantum computing.
Meanwhile, rich economies are using subsidies, such as the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, to reshore domestic manufacturers looking for production hubs beyond China.
With the developed world more focused on “resilience and security,” Pillay warned, investors and consumers will now face “a more expensive world.”
“I don’t think the word ‘resilience’ and ‘security’ is ever associated with low costs,” he said. “It’s an insurance policy—you pay a premium.”
Temasek has narrowed its own investments in China over the years, cutting its share of holdings in the country from 26% in 2011 to 22% today. At the same time, its holdings in the Americas and EMEA regions—primarily in the U.S. and Europe—combined have increased from 11% to 33%.
More recently, Singapore’s state investor has tried to play it safe when it comes to investing in China. The firm “won’t invest in areas that are in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions,” chief investment strategist Rohit Sipahimalani said earlier this month during Temasek’s annual briefing. Nor is Temasek getting involved in China’s buzzy generative A.I. sector, the company’s China president told Caixin last week.
Earlier this month, Temasek reported its worst results since 2016, posting a negative 5% one-year returns to shareholders for its fiscal year ended March 31. The value of Temasek’s portfolio dropped to $288 billion, down from $304 billion the year before. The firm’s portfolio also included a few high-profile failures, like e-commerce startup Zilingo and crypto exchange FTX.
Around 53% of Temasek’s holdings were in unlisted equities, up from about 20% in 2011. If Temasek valued its private holdings according to market conditions, it would add around 18 billion Singapore dollars ($13.6 billion) to the value of its portfolio, the Temasek CEO says.
Clarification, July 27, 2023: This article has been updated to clarify the nature of Temasek’s recently announced financial results.
