“One of the Fed’s reasons for existing is to promote financial stability,” he told me. “But when the Fed moves real and nominal rates around, that has a spillover effect on financial institutions and their borrowers that the Fed better not ignore. The Fed left rates too low for too long with no spinouts going around the track. Now, they have to ease on the brakes. But if they slam on the brakes, they will cause a crash.” 

Fast forward five months and here we are. I was curious what Diamond thinks now that his prediction—in the form of the precipitous fall of Silicon Valley Bank—has come to pass. In the full story, which you can read here, he gives the clearest blow-by-blow account I’ve seen of how exactly the SVB disaster played out. Some highlights:

In our hour-long interview on the SVB debacle, Diamond stated that though Fed policy hurt, it wasn’t the main reason for the implosion. Nor did SVB suffer the classic “sound bank wrecked by a stampede” scenario. Instead, SVB deployed just about every bad policy on both the asset and liabilities sides of its balance sheet. For Diamond, SVB is a case study in how setting a rickety structure to enable breakneck expansion created daunting risks that prudently-run banks, despite the Fed’s huge runup in rates, have avoided.

(Here, he gets into the accounting nitty gritty and the trap SVB found themselves in with AFS vs. HTM bond accounting.)

Diamond posits that even before the 8-K announcement ignited the run, SVB was close to insolvent, and rapidly heading for failure. “As their cost of ‘funding,’ meaning the interest they had to pay on deposits, kept rising to 4% and higher, they’re forced to pay that higher interest needed to keep their customers. But their bond portfolio, where the money comes from, is paying them less than 2%,” he says. “Put simply, you’re getting less than 2% on your assets and paying out, say, 5% on your liabilities.” That deficit of interest coming in and out meant that SVB was destined for big operating losses.

A few things stunned Diamond. First, SVB saw no risk in its ultra-concentrated tech clientele and did not try to diversify beyond that base. Second, that the bank apparently did little to no interest rate hedging, a standard practice at bigger banks. Third, the so-called stress tests weren’t actually very stressful: “I looked at the stress test for 2022, and the Fed was assessing how the banks would perform at rates from 0% to 2% as if 2% was as high as they’d ever go. So almost any bank would pass. The standard should have been 0% to 7%,” he told me. 

You can read his full assessment here. 

Shawn Tully
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Jackson Fordyce curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.

VENTURE DEALS

- Mediar Therapeutics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based fibrosis therapeutics developer, raised $85 million in Series A funding. Novartis Venture Fund and Sofinnova Partners co-led the round and were joined by Pfizer Ventures, Mission BioCapital, Gimv, Pureos, Bristol Myers Squibb, and others. 

- FIRE1, a Dublin-based heart failure management company, raised $25 million in funding. Andera Partners and Novo Holdings co-led the round and were joined by Gilde Healthcare, Gimv, the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, Lightstone Ventures, Medtronic, New Enterprise Associates, and Seventure Partners.

- Maribel Health, a Hanover, N.H.-based home and community care models designer for health systems, raised $25 million in Series A funding led by General Catalyst. 

- Wingspan, a New York-based payroll platform for managing freelance workforces, raised $14 million in Series A funding. Andreessen Horowitz led the round and was joined by Distributed Ventures, Long Journey Ventures, Ludlow Ventures, 186 Ventures, and others.

- Fount, a Los Angeles-based health and performance optimization startup, raised $12 million in Series A funding. Amity Ventures led the round and was joined by Elysian Park Ventures, Not Boring Capital, Allen & Co, Champion Hill Ventures, and other angels. 

- Protai, a Tel Aviv-based drug discovery startup, raised $12 million in seed funding. Grove Ventures, Pitango HealthTech, and Maj Invest Equity Fund invested in the round.

- Zed Industries, a San Francisco-based collaborative code editor developer, raised $10 million in Series A funding. Redpoint Ventures led the round and was joined by Root Ventures and other angels. 

- Genpop, a Los Angeles-based independent game studio, raised $6.5 million in seed funding. Makers Fund led the round and was joined by 1Up Ventures and Good Smile Company.

- Gener8, a London-based data control and payment platform, raised £5.1 million in ($6.14 million) funding. Ex-cricket captain of the West Indies, Chris Gayle, former chief executive of the British Olympic Association, Simon Clegg, and investor Shane Ryan invested in the round.

- ALEX, a Singapore-based open-source DeFi primitives platform, raised $2.5 million in funding. Gossamer Capital, Trust Machines, and others invested in the round. 

- Captain Experiences, an Austin-based outdoor sports guide booking platform, raised $2 million in funding. Bullish led the round and was joined by TechNexus Venture Collaborative, Cartograph Ventures, Carnrite Ventures, Victorum Capital, Riverside Ventures, Mana Ventures, and other angels.

- Staging Labs, a Miami-based crypto security startup, raised $1.1 million in pre-seed funding. The General Partnership, Flourish Ventures, AlphaGrep, and NGC Ventures invested in the round.

PRIVATE EQUITY

- Iten Defense, an Edgewater Capital Partners portfolio company, acquired Transparent Armor Solutions, a Santa Ana, Calif.-based armor solutions provider for the defense industry. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- Patuxent Roofing & Contracting, backed by New State Capital Partners, acquired L.D. Tebben Company, an Austin-based commercial re-roofing contractor. Financial terms were not disclosed. 

OTHER

- 3Z Brands acquired Leesa Sleep, a Virginia Beach, Va.-based direct-to-consumer mattress brand. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- PointClickCare acquired Patient Pattern, a Buffalo, N.Y.-based digital health care management platform. Financial terms were not disclosed.

- TransDigm agreed to acquire Calspan Corporation, a Buffalo, N.Y.-based testing and technology development services and systems provider for the aerospace and defense industry. Financial terms were not disclosed.

PEOPLE

- Turnspire Capital, a New York-based private equity firm, hired Ahdiv Nathan as vice president. Formerly, he was with DestinHaus Capital.