Good morning.
Kudos to the Wall Street Journal for the headline of the week: “Why the Next Recession is Always Six Months Away.” And so it has been for the last year. Everyone predicts it, the numbers defy it, and it gets delayed, again and again.
Why is this happening? There’s no great mystery here. CEOs, economists, and others have been predicting a recession because there is little history of conquering an inflationary surge like the one we are experiencing without recession. But it keeps getting delayed because government stimulus has left consumers flush, and capital for investment remains plentiful and historically cheap—with most interest rates still below the rate of inflation.
Which gets to the key lesson of history: the longer the recession gets delayed, the more inflation gets baked in, and the harder it will be to defeat it. I don’t wish hard times on anyone. But I do remember the 1970s.
Separately, it’s book week at CEO Daily, and Richard Haass, who is stepping down after nearly 20 years running the Council on Foreign Relations, has one worthy of your attention, called The Bill of Obligations. It’s not about business, or even about foreign relations, but about something that is fundamental to both: the breakdown of American civic and political culture. We get the government we deserve, he says, but not the one we need. And the burden of fixing that falls partly on us as citizens. Writes Haass: “American democracy will endure only if obligations join rights at the core of a widely shared understanding of citizenship.” He offers a list of ten obligations. Given my short space, I’ll share the two he says are most important: No. 1, “Be Informed,” and No. 10, “Put Country First.” I’d also put a plug in for No. 9, which is to “Support the Teaching of Civics in School.” It’s a short book, and well worth the time.
More news below. And check out this story on the crossfire Walgreens is taking in the U.S. culture wars. The pharmacy company said it won’t sell the abortion pill mifepristone in 20 states where Republican attorneys general threatened lawsuits, and in response California Gov. Gavin Newsom asked his Department of Health and Human services to review all relationships the state has with Walgreens.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
TOP NEWS
JetBlue/Spirit antitrust case
JetBlue's $3.8 billion acquisition of Spirit Airlines is expected to be blocked by the Justice Department and Department of Transportation. The Justice Department is expected to file an antitrust lawsuit asserting that the elimination of Spirit would lead to higher ticket prices and reduced options for travelers. Meanwhile, the Department of Transportation is expected to impede the transfer of Spirit's airline operating certificate, an authority it has not exercised over major airlines since deregulation in 1978. Bloomberg
South Carolina’s EV plant
The governor of South Carolina is seeking approval for almost $1.3 billion to establish a new electric vehicle plant in the state. VW-backed Scout Motors and South Carolina officials have announced their intention to construct electric Scout vehicles, and the $2 billion plant is expected to hire 4,000 workers. South Carolina is vying with other states, including Georgia and North Carolina, for electric vehicle plant projects by providing incentives worth billions of dollars in taxpayer support. The Associated Press
Stripe’s $3.5 billion tax bill
Stripe has reportedly revealed plans to use a portion of its latest fundraising to cover an estimated $3.5 billion tax bill. According to an investor document obtained by Bloomberg, Stripe intends to raise around $2.3 billion to cover tax withholdings in Q1, with an additional $500 million and $700 million planned for later in the year and in 2024, respectively. Bloomberg
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
Binance once tried to hire current SEC Chair Gary Gensler to advise on regulations by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
‘It’s like a building where all the pieces are on fire’: Twitter engineer says layoffs created chaos and Elon Musk works in the office with 2 bodyguards by Prarthana Prakash
JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon says he’s worried about the war in Ukraine and ‘our relationship with China’ by Hannah Levitt, Ed Hammond, and Bloomberg
CFO as a service: This company matches startups with remote C-suite talent by Alyssa Newcomb
A top tech analyst just warned that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments this week could spark a selloff by Will Daniel
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by Jackson Fordyce.
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