Economist Nouriel Roubini warned that the global economy is at risk of a “hard landing” due to central bank efforts to gain control over persistently high inflation in advanced economies.
Central banks will have to raise interest rates much higher than originally expected to bring inflation back down to targets, Roubini said Tuesday at a business summit held by the Australian Financial Review.
“Inflation is going to remain high because commodity prices are going to remain high this year,” said Roubini. Factors such as a worsening of the Russia-Ukraine war and growing Chinese demand for commodities amid a return to growth will fuel inflation, he added.
Roubini, who has earned the nickname “Dr Doom” for his prolonged bearish views of the global economy, said inflation in the US, Europe and Australia had been more persistent than markets and central banks had anticipated. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates for the 10th consecutive month on Tuesday.
Peter Costello, chairman of Australia’s Future Fund, said the RBA needed to convince the public that it would see through its plan to bring down inflation and said the Federal Reserve was talking “much tougher” than local policymakers.
“The worst thing that could possibly happen is if central banks announce they go on a policy of breaking inflation, and they don’t follow through because then we take the rate rises without the benefit,” Costello told the AFR summit in Sydney.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe has come under pressure over his ability to communicate a consistent message on policy, after indicating during the pandemic that rates would likely be on hold at a record low until 2024.
Economists are expecting the RBA to lift the cash rate by another 25 basis points to 3.6% at Tuesday’s meeting.
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