• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy

2

CEO says anyone who works from home is grabbing groceries or at the vet 30% of the time—and shows off his busy office at Friday 5 p.m. to prove it

3

Current price of oil as of June 3, 2026

1

Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy

2

CEO says anyone who works from home is grabbing groceries or at the vet 30% of the time—and shows off his busy office at Friday 5 p.m. to prove it

3

Current price of oil as of June 3, 2026
FinanceHousing

These bubbly housing markets look like busts—and they just sank Redfin’s flipping business

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 10, 2022, 6:14 AM ET
Phoenix skyline framed by saguaro cactus and mountainous desert
Getty Images

Redfin is throwing in the towel.

On Wednesday, Redfin told shareholders that it plans to shutter its homebuying program. As it does so, it will lay off 862 employees—or 13% of its workforce.

What’s going on? While the ongoing housing correction has hit the entire country, it’s particularly sharp in bubbly housing markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas. Those markets have gone straight from Pandemic Housing Boom to Pandemic Housing Bust. They’re also the places where iBuyers like Redfin and Opendoor have significant exposure.

These so-called iBuyer programs don’t operate like normal flippers. Instead of creating value through renovating homes, they instead use algorithms to make speedy offers directly to sellers, the service being that it reduces the hassle for sellers. As long as iBuyers can quickly resell the home, things should go smoothly. However, if home prices begin to fall, things can go south very fast.

That downside scenario, of course, is here.

“We notice immediately when fewer people are on our website and fewer are signing up for tours… We’re sitting on $350 million worth of homes for sale that we bought with our own money, or worse bought with borrowed money. And what we always told investors is that we would protect our balance sheet by acting quickly. We don’t have hope as a strategy. We immediately started marking down things,” Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman recently told Fortune.

By the end of January 2023, Redfin expects to reduce its portfolio of homes down to $85 million. And by the end of the second quarter of 2023, all of its homes should be sold off.

Nationally, the lagged Case-Shiller Index shows U.S. home prices fell 1.3% between June and August. However, in pandemic boomtowns, that home price correction is much greater. According to the Burns Home Value Index, Phoenix home values have already fallen 10% from their 2022 peak.

On one hand, iBuyers are getting pinched by housing busts in markets like Phoenix. On the other hand, iBuyers are also helping to accelerate housing busts in markets like Phoenix.

"These iBuyers adjust [home] prices almost like clockwork if a home doesn't sell. So in submarkets where they have a presence they are also price setters in a faster way than past cycles," Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune.

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman agrees that iBuyers, along with other investors who piled into the market during the boom, are helping to drive home prices down faster this time around.

“When the shiitake mushrooms hit the fan, you [investors] want to get out first. The way to do that is to figure out where the lowest sale is, and be 2% below that. And if it doesn’t sell in the first weekend, move it down [again],” Kelman recently told Fortune. “My take is that because builders and iBuyers account for more inventory, that leads to a faster correction."

Not long after the Federal Reserve kicked into inflation-fighting mode, unsold housing inventory began to climb across the country. As of October, inventory levels are up 33% on a year-over-year basis. However, in bubbly markets where iBuyers are exposed, inventory growth is much more pronounced. In Phoenix, active listings for sale on realtor.com are up 173% on a year-over-year basis; markets like Austin and Salt Lake City are up 136% and 117%, respectively.

For most sellers, there's a psychological aspect to home prices: They don't want to lower their price tag unless economics forces their hand. That's just not how algorithm-run iBuyer programs work. They want out first, and they aren't afraid to cut aggressively in order to do so.

Look no further than this three-bedroom home in Las Vegas. In April, Redfin bought the home for $600,000. Just weeks later, Redfin listed it for sale in at $624,900. But it was too late: The Las Vegas housing market had already moved into correction mode. Fast-forward to November, and the listing just got taken off the market after a series of price cuts brought its list price to $524,900.

Even after all these aggressive price cuts, iBuyers still have a tremendous amount of inventory to offload in bubbly markets. In Phoenix alone, Parcl Labs estimates, iBuyers still own around $1 billion worth of units.

"Their [iBuyers] sales transactions alone accounted for nearly 10% of all Phoenix sales activity in September. As more pressure builds for them to exit their positions, they will likely become more aggressive in their pricing; this will continue a downward spiral until prices reach a point where demand enters to stabilize it," Jason Lewris, cofounder of Parcl Labs, tells Fortune. "All of the conditions are there for a crash [in Phoenix]."

Why are markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas rolling over so fast? Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi points to detached fundamentals. Nationally, Moody's calculates, the typical U.S. housing market is "overvalued" by around 23%. However, the firm says markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas are "overvalued" by over 50%. For comparison, Phoenix and Las Vegas were "overvalued" by 51% and 54% respectively just as the housing bubble peaked in 2006.

Heading forward, Zandi expects U.S. home prices to decline by around 10% from peak to trough. But in "significantly overvalued" markets like Phoenix, he estimates prices will fall between 15% to 20%. And if a recession hits, he says, that decline in "significantly overvalued" markets could be between 25% to 30%. (You can find Moody's forecast for 322 housing markets here.)

Ironically, Redfin's iBuyer woes might make Zillow executives feel smart—or at least lucky.

Back in November, Zillow announced it'd halt its failed iBuyer program—which was notoriously overpaying for homes—and sell off its remaining homes through early 2022. It turns out, Zillow sold off its homes at the peak of the Pandemic Housing Boom. While Zillow lost a lot of money, it could've lost a lot more.

Hungry for more housing data? Follow me on Twitter at @NewsLambert.

Sign up for the Fortune Features email list so you don’t miss our biggest features, exclusive interviews, and investigations.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

SpaceX and Anthropic are about to go public—and your 401(k) may be forced to buy in
InvestingSpaceX
SpaceX and Anthropic are about to go public—and your 401(k) may be forced to buy in
By Catherina GioinoJune 4, 2026
2 hours ago
What Christie’s $1.45 billion blockbuster art auction tells us about the ‘Great Wealth Transfer’
InvestingWealth
What Christie’s $1.45 billion blockbuster art auction tells us about the ‘Great Wealth Transfer’
By Phil WahbaJune 4, 2026
3 hours ago
Elon Musk, wearing all black, smiles and looks to the side.
InvestingSpaceX
A dying satellite company sold spectrum to Elon Musk—and turned $11.1 billion in SpaceX stock into the Fortune 500’s best shareholder return
By Sasha RogelbergJune 4, 2026
3 hours ago
American Airlines is suspending some summer routes thanks to the cost of jet fuel
Travel & LeisureAmerican Airlines Group
American Airlines is suspending some summer routes thanks to the cost of jet fuel
By The Associated Press and Wyatte Grantham-PhilipsJune 4, 2026
3 hours ago
US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent testifies during a Senate Finance Committee hearing concerning the fiscal year 2027 budget for the Treasury Department, on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on June 3, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
Economynational debt
10,000 Boomers a day, $39 trillion in debt, and no benefit cuts: Bessent stakes Social Security on the Trump economy
By Nick LichtenbergJune 4, 2026
3 hours ago
Isolated Gen Z worker in office
SuccessGen Z
Gen Zers are more disconnected and distrustful of coworkers than their older colleagues—and they’re so lonely they’re taking days off work
By Emma BurleighJune 4, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy
Cybersecurity
Ohio city workers are covering automated license plate readers with trash bags as officials sound the alarm on 'egregious violations' of privacy
By Sasha RogelbergJune 3, 2026
1 day ago
CEO says anyone who works from home is grabbing groceries or at the vet 30% of the time—and shows off his busy office at Friday 5 p.m. to prove it
Success
CEO says anyone who works from home is grabbing groceries or at the vet 30% of the time—and shows off his busy office at Friday 5 p.m. to prove it
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 4, 2026
12 hours ago
Current price of oil as of June 3, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 3, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 3, 2026
1 day ago
A single new sentence in SpaceX's amended IPO filing could signal the biggest merger in history
Startups & Venture
A single new sentence in SpaceX's amended IPO filing could signal the biggest merger in history
By Shawn TullyJune 4, 2026
12 hours ago
Erin Brockovich, the activist who defeated a utility giant and inspired a Julia Roberts film, is pushing data centers to be more transparent
Environment
Erin Brockovich, the activist who defeated a utility giant and inspired a Julia Roberts film, is pushing data centers to be more transparent
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 1, 2026
3 days ago
Southwest exec says the free bag and assigned seating overhaul is already paying off
Travel & Leisure
Southwest exec says the free bag and assigned seating overhaul is already paying off
By Preston ForeJune 2, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.