The Pandemic Housing Boom finally met its match this spring: spiked mortgage rates. As the Federal Reserve moved into inflation-fighting mode, financial markets quickly put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Those elevated mortgage rates—which topped out at 6.28% in June—coupled with sky-high home prices, threw cold water onto the housing boom. Home shoppers simply had enough.
We’ve already seen a substantial decline in home sales—marking the swiftest U.S. housing market contraction since 2006. This homebuyer pullback also marks the “rolling over” of the housing cycle that started in 2012. While industry insiders don’t think this is 2008 all over again, many housing economists warn that continued weakening could see home price corrections hit some regional housing markets.
To find out which housing markets are poised for home price declines, Fortune reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. Economists at the financial intelligence firm calculated how house prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023. They also forecast home price shifts between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024.
Let’s start by looking at 2023.
Nationally, Moody's Analytics predicts U.S. home prices will rise 0% next year. That's a dramatic deceleration from the 19.7% home price uptick we saw over the past 12 months. It would also mark the lowest rate of home price growth since 2012.
But on a regional level, Moody's Analytics thinks it'll vary—a lot.
Among the nation's 414 largest housing markets, Moody’s Analytics’ forecast model predicts that 183 markets will see a year-over-year home price increase in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2023 home price jumps are in Albany, Ga. (4.12%); New Bern, N.C. (4.12%); Augusta, Ga. (3.84%); Hartford, Conn. (3.73%); and Casper, Wyo. (3.29%).
Another 231 markets, Moody's Analytics predicts, are likely to see home prices drop in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2023 home price drops are in The Villages, Fla. (-6.96%); Punta Gorda, Fla. (-6%); Reno (-5.57%); Honolulu (-5.56%); and Spokane, Wash. (5.52%).
While Moody’s Analytics’ forecast is far from a housing crash, it also isn't a rosy outlook. This summer, markets like Austin and Las Vegas are experiencing a stare-down between buyers and sellers. That could soon change. If Moody's Analytics’ forecast is right, sellers in markets like Austin and Las Vegas will begin to cave in 2023.
Now let's look at 2024.
Among the nation's 414 largest housing markets, Moody's Analytics predicts that 236 markets will see a year-over-year home price increase in 2024. The biggest forecasted 2024 home price jumps are in Albany, Ga. (5.5%); Casper, Wyo. (4.52%%); Columbus, Ga. (4.09%); Rocky Mount, N.C. (3.97%); and San Jose (3.83%).
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics predicts 178 regional housing markets are likely to see home prices decline in 2023. The biggest forecasted 2024 home price drops are in The Villages, Fla. (-6.33%); Punta Gorda (-5.71%); Cape Coral, Fla. (-4.58%); Lake Havasu, Ariz. (-4.26%); and Spokane, Wash. (-4.11%).
Many of these at-risk housing markets are already experiencing the swiftest 2022 slowdowns. Just look at Austin, where the number of active homes for sale in July is 350% higher than it was in January.
Why are markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Las Vegas more likely to see home price declines? It boils down to fundamentals. The Pandemic Housing Boom saw regional housing markets like Austin become significantly detached from underlying economic fundamentals. Once historically low mortgage rates disappeared this spring, would-be buyers began to feel the full weight of record home price appreciation.
Simply being overvalued relative to underlying economic fundamentals doesn't guarantee a home price correction. However, significantly "overvalued" housing markets are usually the very places that see the biggest home price declines once the housing cycle "rolls over."
There's a bit more bad news for markets like Austin and Las Vegas: This forecast assumes the U.S. doesn't enter into a recession. If a recession does come, Moody's Analytics predicts significantly "overvalued" housing markets are likely to see home prices decline between 15% to 20% over the next two years.
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