Mortgage rates forecast to hit 4% next year

As if the housing market weren’t complicated enough these days, the Mortgage Bankers Association says higher rates are on the way—and homebuyers at the end of 2022 could be paying nearly 30% more for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

A new survey from the MBA predicts 30-year rates, which hit record lows last July, will average 4% by the fourth quarter of next year. (That compares with 3.1% now.) It doesn’t look to be a short-term increase, either. Heading into 2023, rates could potentially go as high as 4.3%—a 39% jump from where they are today.

The news comes as builder confidence is on the rise in October. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose four points to 80 this month. Anything over 50 is considered positive—and this number is 10 shy of the record set last November.

“Mortgage lenders and borrowers should expect rising mortgage rates over the next year, as stronger economic growth pushes Treasury yields higher,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology at the MBA in a statement. “Robust homebuyer demand from millennial households, households seeking more space, and still-low mortgage rates are favorable tailwinds for the housing market in 2022 and are behind MBA’s expectations of record purchase originations over the next two years.”

Rising mortgage rates could make it harder for people to afford a home, though. Earlier this month, Zillow rolled out its 12-month forecast, calling for an 11.7% appreciation in U.S. home values, a figure that’s lower than the past year’s, but still considerably higher than expected salary raises.