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Good morning. The global markets have spoken. Stocks across Asia and Europe, plus the U.S. futures, have been on the ropes all morning following last night’s combative presidential debate. It wasn’t the insults or shouting that put the markets into a risk-off mood. It’s the growing concerns that that pillar of democracy—the United States—is headed for a disputed general election. “Given the importance of international investors to US markets, this may add volatility” in the weeks to come, warns UBS economist Paul Donavan in a morning note to investors.
Stay tuned to Fortune‘s political coverage for more post-debate analysis.
Let’s see what’s driving markets.
Markets update
Asia
- The major Asia indexes are mostly down in afternoon trading, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng the best of the bunch, up 0.8%.
- China’s economic recovery continues to roll on as the latest manufacturing data came in this morning above expectations, a sign global demand is picking up.
- Elsewhere, 2020 will be a year of crisis for many. The pandemic will send 38 million people into poverty across East Asia and the Pacific as the region’s collective economy grows at its slowest pace in 50 years.
Europe
- The European bourses are a blur of red with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.7% out of the gates.
- Make-or-break negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal got off on a bad foot yesterday as the two sides remain far apart on how the U.K. plans to use state aid to help strategic companies and industry sectors.
- Shares in Royal Dutch Shell were up 0.7% in morning trade after the oil-and-gas giant announced up to 9,000 job cuts in a cost-cutting move as oil demand collapses.
U.S.
- U.S. futures are solidly in the red, though off their overnight lows.
- Shares in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals were up more than 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday after the company disclosed promising trial results from its COVID antibody “cocktail” treatment.
- The Walt Disney Co. announced on Tuesday it plans to lay off 28,000 workers in its COVID-slammed parks division in Florida and California. Pre-market shares are down 1.3%.
Elsewhere
- Gold is falling, trading around $1,890/ounce.
- The dollar is up.
- Crude is down, with Brent trading around $41/barrel.
***
On stocks and wealth
I’m going to stay away from politics this morning in this space, and instead talk about wealth management. The Allianz global Wealth Report is now out and it shows there was a record jump in the holdings of gross financial assets last year, led primarily by stocks.
I scrolled though the report to get to the part about the COVID impact on global wealth. The verdict? The worst appears to have passed.
“Our estimates suggest that private households have been able to recoup their losses of the first quarter, recording a slight +1.5% increase in global financial assets by the end of the second quarter of 2020,” the co-authors write, concluding “it’s very likely that private households’ financial assets could end 2020 in the black.”
Securities have become the main driver in global wealth over the past decade. That should hardly come as a surprise with the boom in stocks, ETFs and mutual funds.
By the end of 2019, gross financial assets held by the world’s wealthiest households grew nearly 10% to €192 trillion ($225 trillion) at the end of 2019. It was the largest year-on-year rise since 2005.
“The buoyant stock market performance led to an increase of the asset class of securities (shares, bonds and invest- ment funds) by +13.7%, by far the highest growth rate of the three main asset classes in private households’ portfolios,” the authors wrote, noting that €77 trillion, or 40%, of gross financial assets were in the form of securities.
The out-performance of U.S. equities in particular is making Americans richer relative to households around the world. As the next chart shows, the Dow and S&P over the past decade have well outperformed their global peers over the past decade.
This trend has continued in recent months, with at least one exception. Germany’s Dax has been one of the best performing indexes over the past two months, performing more or less in line with the Dow. London’s FTSE, meanwhile, is being dragged down by COVID and Brexit jitters. It’s trading like an emerging market index these days.
The big takeaway from the Allianz report may not sound all that surprising to readers of Bull Sheet. Still, it’s worth noting that equities has powered a significant surge in wealth creation since the global financial crisis, and that those assets have proven remarkably resilient during the COVID crisis as well.
***
Have a nice day, everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
As always, you can write to bullsheet@fortune.com or reply to this email with suggestions and feedback.
Today's reads
Déjà vu. State Street Global Advisors' Michael Arone didn't trust the presidential polls in 2016, and he's just as unconvinced today. "We're exactly in the same spot now, including with investors," Arone tells Fortune's Shawn Tully. The CIO also laid out which candidate would be best for stocks.
October surprise? As the calendar flips to a new month (and new quarter), the investment pros are looking ahead to handicap what expect investors may encounter in the final month before Election Day. The consensus seems to be: choppy trading ahead. But that could also spell investment opportunities. Here's why.
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Market candy
Quiz time
After a rough stretch in the first half of September, gold trading in a range just below $2,000/ounce. How much higher would the inflation-adjusted price of spot gold need to climb to hit an all-time high?
- A) $10
- B) $100
- C) $250
- D) $800
The answer is D. Gold would have to cross $2,800 to top the inflation-adjusted all-time price it hit in January, 1980.