Good morning.
The attack on Saudi oil fields over the weekend caused the biggest disruption of oil production since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. But it’s also a reminder of how much has changed since then.
In those days, Saudi Arabia was the largest producer of oil in the world. Last year, the United States took the honor, thanks to the wonders of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Moreover, the end of the world’s oil addiction is now within sight. McKinsey predicts “peak oil” will arrive in just a little over a decade–2030–not because of a lack of supply, as once feared, but because of a decline in demand.
While disruption in Saudi Arabia could cause prices to rise—indeed, they surged more than 10% on Sunday—any prolonged price increase above the mid-$60 level will unlock production in the U.S. It won’t happen overnight; shale producers need to know prices will stick, and need three to six months to bring new production on line. But it means the Middle East doesn’t have the chokehold on the U.S. economy it once did. Any economic effect will be temporary.
Even a temporary spike in oil prices, of course, can be disruptive, particularly at a time when the economy is already showing weakness from other causes. But the days when concerns about Middle Eastern oil drove U.S. economic and foreign policy should be over.
More news below. I’m still in Hong Kong this week, where protests ratcheted up a notch Sunday. Protestors were lighting fires and throwing gasoline bombs, and the police unleashed tear gas and water cannons. Air travel here is down 12% from last year, and hotel bookings are off 50%.
Alan Murray
alan.murray@fortune.com
@alansmurray
TOP NEWS
China Slowdown
China's economic slowdown got worse last month. Industrial production was at a 17.5-year low, retail sales were down, and analysts are calling for more stimulus from Beijing. South China Morning Post
GM Strike
General Motors workers are striking across the U.S., after union talks with management stalled—in part thanks to GM's decision to shutter four American factories. The United Auto Workers union told around 46,000 workers at 31 plants to stay home or walk out. Fortune
Purdue Bankruptcy
OxyContin maker Purdue has filed for bankruptcy as part of its attempt to settle the thousands of opioid-crisis lawsuits it faces. The board approved the Chapter 11 filing yesterday. The settlement that Purdue tentatively agreed with a series of states does not, of course, fully settle the matter of its alleged role in fuelling the crisis, as some states did not sign on. New York Times
Airbus Tariffs
Reuters is reporting that the WTO has approved a U.S. request to levy tariffs on European goods, in the context of the Airbus subsidies case. The news has hit the shares of the European plane-building consortium and other exporters. The EU has also won a partial victory over Boeing subsidies in the U.S., but as a matter of timing the U.S. gets to impose tariffs first. Reuters
AROUND THE WATER COOLER
Tech Tax
The EU's incoming economic commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, says the bloc will go it alone with a tax on tech giants if there's no agreement on the issue at the OECD or G20 level. At the moment, individual European countries are introducing disparate national taxes on the local revenues of Silicon Valley giants. Reuters
Car Protests
The future of the Frankfurt Motor Show is in doubt following massive environmental protests outside this year's event. Germany's VDA auto industry body won't say if the current format will survive in Frankfurt, as local politicians now want only eco-friendly transport to be showcased. The body's chief has quit, and industry bosses are apparently unhappy with political and societal pushback against the manufacturers. Financial Times
Lighting M&A
The German lightbulb giant Osram is advising its investors to agree to a $4.1 billion takeover by Austrian sensor maker (and Apple supplier) AMS, whose offer totals 10% more than a rival bid by Bain Capital and Carlyle Group. Bloomberg
Boeing Engineering
Boeing is reportedly set to revamp its engineering department as a result of the two fatal 737 Max crashes. According to the Wall Street Journal, top engineers would report to the chief engineer rather than airplane program managers. WSJ
This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer. Find previous editions here, and sign up for other Fortune newsletters here.
