The Economy Is in Code Yellow for a Recession Based on These 9 Metrics

August 16, 2019, 10:30 AM UTC

Opinions are split on whether the Federal Reserve responded to genuine concerns for the U.S. economy in cutting interest rates for the first time in 11 years in late July, or simply bowed to political pressure. But the warning signs of recession are showing themselves—and a majority of economists now believe the next cuts will come before the 2020 elections. We’re keeping an eye on these nine key metrics to judge the health of the economy.

Unemployment Rate

The U.S. unemployment rate is at historically low levels and is still trending downward.

Consumer Confidence

Consumers are bullish, and they’re getting more so.

Quits Rate

More Americans are leaving their jobs voluntarily, a mark of economic confidence.

Vehicles Sold

U.S. auto sales, a core economic indicator, peaked in 2017 and are trending down.

Stock-Price Valuation

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted P/E ratio index indicates low future returns.

Oil Prices

Anemic oil prices reflect weak industrial demand—a concerning sign.

New Building Permits

New housing construction is stalling—and never reached pre-crisis levels.

ISM Manufacturing Index

The index is approaching 50. Recessions tend to happen below that level.

The Yield Curve

Long-term bond rates are below short-term rates, another recession indicator.

Sources: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Conference Board; Bloomberg; Robert Shiller; Institute for Supply Management

A version of this article appears in the September 2019 issue of Fortune with the headline “Code Yellow for the Economy.”

More must-read stories from Fortune:

—This recession indicator is going off—but don’t use it to time the market
The death of trading: Why more big banks think the business is a losing bet
Business confidence is plummeting because of a “chaotic” environment
How are big banks doing when it comes to diversity? Congress isn’t impressed
“Negative” interest rates used to be unthinkable in the U.S.—not anymore
Don’t miss the daily Term Sheet, Fortune‘s newsletter on deals and dealmakers.

Read More

LeadershipCryptocurrencyInflationGreat ResignationInvesting