The first Democratic debates will take place this week, but all of the leading polls are in agreement about one thing: former Vice President Joe Biden is the top-polling Democratic candidate.
Polling from 26% at the low end and as high as 38% in polls from the start of June, the top-rated polls, according to FiveThirtyEight—Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, and Fox News—put Biden at 32%, 30%, and 32%, respectively.
Depending on who you ask, Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren is polling second: Monmouth puts Warren just slightly ahead of Sanders with 15% to his 14%. Quinnipiac, meanwhile, puts Sanders at 19% and Warren at 15%, and according to Fox, Sanders is at 13% and Warren 9%.
Most polls, including Monmouth, show Sen. Kamala Harris behind Biden, Sanders, and Warren, polling consistently in the high single digits. But in some cases, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is catching up—or has even surpassed Harris. Quinnipiac puts Buttigieg at 8% and Harris at 7%, while Fox has the two candidates tied at 8%.
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Cory Booker are the only other candidates that regularly break 1% in the polls—the remaining 18 candidates are hovering somewhere between 0% and 1%.
While several of the 2020 candidates will not be appearing on the debate stage this week, these polls are not necessarily a death sentence. The nominating contests don’t even begin until the Iowa caucuses start in early February—and polls can change (and even be wrong, as history tells us.)
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