When it comes to the 2019 Academy Awards, there are only three etched-in-stone certainties about the big night: 1) The show will be held Sunday, Feb. 24, on ABC; 2) it will start at 8 p.m. Eastern Time; and 3) Glenn Close is finally going to take home a statue.
At least, that’s the consensus among several long-time Oscar-watchers, all of whom believe seven-time nominee Close will win a long-deserved Best Actress statue for her role in The Wife. She’s one of a handful of sure-things in a night that’s sure to be full of surprises: Will Netflix’s Roma become the first foreign language film to win Best Picture—and solidify the streamer’s takeover of Hollywood? Will Rami Malek, star of the king-sized Queen-biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, be among the night’s champions? And will the show’s producers be able to hand out all 24 awards in just three hours, even without a host? (Answer: Probably not.)
For a sense of who will emerge victorious on Sunday night, Fortune surveyed the picks of many high-profile experts, including writers and columnists for The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, The Ringer, Entertainment Weekly, and GoldDerby.com. Then we ran their best guesses through our own internal Oscar-prediction machine—aka a slightly doughy guy sitting on a couch in suburban Burbank—to synthesize who will win on the big night. Feel free to use the below conclusions for your own office pool or Oscar-party ballot, but keep in mind the words of William Goldman, the two-time Oscar-winner (and Academy Awards obsessive) who passed away last year. When it comes to the movie industry, Goldman famously wrote, “Nobody knows anything.” That goes double for the Oscars.
Best Picture
Black Panther
BlackKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
THE BEST BET: Only a few months ago, the idea of some more conservative members giving a Netflix movie a major prize seemed like a long-shot. But Bohemian Rhapsody is likely too controversial for a Best Picture win; Green Book is well-liked by many, but has had an at-times rough awards-season campaign; and while the other films all have their supporters, it’s Roma—a patient, gorgeous, and often stirring black-and-white tale of life in 1970s Mexico—that feels the most Best Picture-y. It helps, of course, that Netflix has reportedly spent at least $25 million promoting the film’s release (and that’s not even counting the billboards the company purchased last year). Yet while nearly all of the pundits agree that Roma will take home the top prize, don’t count out a quiet movie-biz backlash against the streaming company, which could lead to an upset in the form of the beloved, billion-dollar-grossing Black Panther.
Best Director
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)
THE BEST BET: Alfonso Cuarón has already won most of the other big directing prizes this season, and the fact that he also served as Roma‘s cinematographer and screenwriter only reinforces his rep as one of the era’s most gifted filmmakers. Of course, there’s also lots of love for Lee, which brings us to…
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
THE BEST BET: BlacKkKlansman‘s Spike Lee, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, and Kevin Willmott are the ones to watch here. Lee’s only Academy Award is a (well-deserved) honorary Oscar, but BlacKkKlansman will finally give the filmmaker a statue in competitive category, 30 years after his Do the Right Thing became a global phenomenon.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
THE BEST BET: The Favourite is the favorite. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara’s script faces formidable competition from the legendary Paul Schrader (First Reformed) and the team behind Green Book. But the consensus-favorite is The Favourite, with its biting one-liners and oh-so-withering retorts.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
THE BEST BET: Glenn Close. It’s not even close.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
THE BEST BET: Pick Regina King, though if you’re feeling risky—and perhaps looking for one of those surprise upsets that could put your ballot ahead of your office-mates—Weisz could also be a wise choice.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
THE BEST BET: Count on Rami Malek, who charmed audiences, and overcame a difficult production, to inhabit the late Freddie Mercury. If you don’t believe us, talk to the Los Angeles couple that’s seen Rhapsody 24 times…and counting.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
THE BEST BET: While nearly all of the pundits have gone with Mahershala Ali, don’t discount the Academy’s large percentage of British voters, who might help the delightful Richard E. Grant win his first-ever Oscar.
Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
THE BEST BET: In what comes down to a proxy war between two streamers—Roma is from Netflix, Cold War from Amazon—Roma will likely come out ahead, thanks to its Best Picture momentum. But Cold War is beloved by many in the Academy, as evidenced by its nominations in the Directing and Cinematography categories.
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
THE BEST BET: It wasn’t as successful at the box-office as some of its competitors, but Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse felt like a big swing forward in animated storytelling—and will likely be rewarded for it.
Best Original Song
“All The Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
THE BEST BET: “Shallow,” by a sha-la-la-la-la-la-la-la-long stretch.
Best Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
THE BEST BET: If Beale Street Could Talk is the top pick among the experts, though the Grammy-winning Black Panther score prove to be a come-from-behind Marvel.
Best Documentary
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
THE BEST BET: An appropriately up-in-the-air category: The high-climbing doc Free Solo and the supremely popular Ruth Bader Ginsburg account RBG were both box-office hits—and this a category that reliably goes to well-known films (and well-known subjects, like Ginsburg). Most pundits have Free Solo in their sights, though voters’ affection for Ginsburg might be big factor. One possible underdog: Hulu’s youth-in-crisis tale Minding the Gap is one of the best-reviewed movies of last year in any category; if RBG and Free Solo split the vote, watch the </em><em>Gap emerge as a genuine surprise winner.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
THE BEST BET: Good luck with this one! Nearly all of the pundits are split on this one, though Period. End of Sentence.—about women in rural India who must manufacture their own menstrual pads—has urgency, admirers, and the backing of Netflix.
Best Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
THE BEST BET: All the stars are aligning for
Black Panther‘s super threads.
Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born
THE BEST BET: Another sure-fire win for team Roma.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
THE BEST BET: You can’t spell “victorious prosthetics” without VP, so expect Vice‘s transformation of ex-Batman Christian Bale into Dick Cheney to win the night.
Best Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
THE BEST BET: Another toughie: The jittery Vice is on many experts’ lists, but the well-known behind-the-scenes struggles of Bohemian Rhapsody—which went through two directors, representing a substantial editing challenge—might endear the Queen biopic to voters. It’s a close race, so, in the words of Vanilla Ice: Vice, Vice…maybe?
Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
THE BEST BET: The difficult task of bringing Freddie Mercury’s vocals to life will give
Bohemian Rhapsody the Oscar in a
flash.
Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
THE BEST BET: The technical feats of First Man are widely admired within the industry, giving it a moon-sliver-sized edge over Bohemian Rhapsody.
Best Live-Action Short Film
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
THE BEST BET: This is always one of the toughest to call, though in a year full of somber shorts, many experts are betting on the relatively upbeat Marguerite—a French short about an unlikely friendship—to be the night’s winner.
Best Animated Short Film
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
THE BEST BET: The poignant, Pixar-produced Bao—which got a boost from playing in front of last year’s hit Incredibles 2—is a safe bet here.
Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
THE BEST BET: The lavish and lovely 18th-century sets of The Favourite will likely woo the most voters.
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
THE BEST BET: Another divisive race, as awards-predictors alternate between First Man and Avengers: Infinity War. We’re guessing Avengers: Infinity War will win it in a snap.
