• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns

2

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

3

Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday

1

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns

2

Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983

3

Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday
Commentary

The Real Reason Investors Can’t Get Enough of Tesla

By
W Rocky Newman
W Rocky Newman
and
Bethany Cianciolo
Bethany Cianciolo
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
W Rocky Newman
W Rocky Newman
and
Bethany Cianciolo
Bethany Cianciolo
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 20, 2017, 12:09 PM ET

When someone buys a stock at any price, they are betting it will rise in value over time. When someone sells a stock, they’re assuming the price is going to go down at some point. The side with greater numbers usually determines which side wins the day. And currently, there are a lot more buyers for Tesla than sellers.

In fact, Tesla surpassed General Motors (GM) last week as the most valuable automaker in the United States, and the two have been neck and neck since. Tesla stock is now trading just a sliver over $300 per share (up from a previous 52-week low of $178), while GM is about $33.70 per share (up from a 52-week low of just over $27). This puts the market capitalization of both companies at about $50 billion.

From the standpoint of making cars today, GM has had a great year. It has come back from near disaster a few years ago to hit all of the marks investors typically look for in buying a stock: record profits, plenty of cash, strong earnings, and solid dividend performance. In fact, GM made about 10 million cars in 2016 while Tesla made 76,000. GM earned a profit of more than $9 billon, or about $900 per car, while Tesla (TSLA) lost $773 million, or about $10,200 on every car it made, making earnings and dividends impossible. Yet its market capitalization has more than doubled over the past three years.

So what makes Tesla the most valuable?

The answer may be as simple as the concept of a “story stock,” or a stock whose value is less reflective of its past performance in a more traditional way (earnings, dividends, profits, assets, and past growth) and more indicative of future potential defined in a nontraditional way. Story stocks gain their value looking forward rather than backward. They generate excitement or allure with something new and significant that investors want to be part of. Traditionalists would suggest that story stocks can be manipulated by media hype when circumstances are bullish, and tend to shrink away in a bearish market.

As superficial as the possibility of a media-hyped story stock’s valuation sounds, trading based solely on extrapolating aggregated metrics of past performance that mostly ignores the future is a lot like when Sheldon Cooper of The Big Bang Theory was asked to guess the name of the person NASA had picked to go to the International Space Station. He responded “Muhammad Lee,” explaining that since he didn’t know the right answer, his guess had the best statistical probability of answering the question correctly since Muhammad was the world’s most popular first name and Lee the world’s most popular last name.

To be clear, Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk have a story. Rocket launches and high-speed trains in tubes sound cool and draw attention. But there might be more to the plan than a story to be hyped in the media. Many see batteries’ falling costs and increasing performance as the key to electric vehicles overcoming the internal combustion engine. It could be argued that Tesla building the Gigafactory to produce its own batteries adds synergy to this developing puzzle.

 

Acquiring SolarCity, while sucking cash in the short term, will likely generate more synergy with Musk’s Powerwall, a battery storage system for homes and businesses. If that pulls more battery demand from the Gigafactory, then Tesla’s engineers will have more opportunities to move down the learning curve and find ways to make batteries cheaper and more powerful. As that happens, Musk and Tesla will look more like that contestant on the Wheel of Fortune who sees the puzzle solution early in the game, while the rest of us are guessing to fill in the missing letters.

To be clear, Tesla may not stay ahead of GM for long and yes, those buyers pushing the value of Tesla up to whatever level it gets to are looking very much to the future. An analyst recently suggested that buyers of Tesla stock are about beliefs rather than evidence, and faith, rather than things that are seen. I don’t disagree. But belief only in traditional forms of evidence, decisions based on incremental steps rather than the big picture, and believing in only what can be seen can be costly to the most narrowly focused investors. Like Wheel of Fortune, some people “see” the answer before the rest of us do.

W. Rocky Newman is a professor at Miami University’s Farmer School of Business in Oxford, Ohio.

About the Authors
By W Rocky Newman
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
By Bethany Cianciolo
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Commentary

Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
CommentaryVietnam
Vietnam has bold plans for its economic future. It will need U.S. tech, capital, and speed to make them happen
By Brian McFeeters and Vu Tu ThanhJune 14, 2026
34 minutes ago
t
CommentaryTariffs
A quartz countertop tariff could double your kitchen renovation cost — and kill 13 jobs for every one it creates
By Steve SwedbergJune 14, 2026
12 hours ago
nexstar
CommentaryAntitrust
Nexstar CEO: big tech swallowed local newspapers. Local TV could be next
By Perry A. SookJune 14, 2026
13 hours ago
ravi
CommentaryWeather and forecasting
I spent 8 years flood-proofing a city. Capital markets are running out of time to take El Niño seriously
By Ravi S. BhallaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
herrin
CommentaryInfrastructure
America just committed $1.2 trillion to fix its infrastructure. We’re still flying blind
By Gregg HerrinJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
cyber
Commentarycyber
Accenture cyber leads: why hiring more people won’t solve the cybersecurity talent gap
By Harpreet Sidhu and Vikram DesaiJune 13, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
Real Estate
Gen Z fled San Francisco for Texas and Florida. Now they’re turning ‘welcomer cities’ into the next big tech towns
By Sydney LakeJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
Personal Finance
Social Security's 2032 deadline puts a 22% cut on the table — but Washington has way less room to negotiate than 1983
By John W. Diamond and The ConversationJune 12, 2026
2 days ago
Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday
Middle East
Trump expects to sign a deal with Iran on Sunday, but Tehran may want to avoid giving him a gift on his birthday
By Jason MaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
AI
'It's not a jailbreak' — Research leading to U.S. export restrictions on top Anthropic models was for defense, cybersecurity CEO says
By Jason MaJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
Melinda French Gates' advice to new IPO millionaires: 'Give half your money away'
Startups & Venture
Melinda French Gates' advice to new IPO millionaires: 'Give half your money away'
By Emma HinchliffeJune 13, 2026
1 day ago
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
Success
CEO of $20 billion AI firm Perplexity says the secret to success is ‘sleeping with that fear’ that your competitor will steal your idea
By Preston ForeJune 13, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.