Skip to Content

This Key Predictor Says Hillary Clinton Will Win the Election

The tiny U.S. territory of Guam just picked Hillary Clinton to win the election.

The Pacific island is 15 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time, meaning Guam’s results were the first to come in. According to USA Today, Clinton won 71.63% of the vote there.

Republican candidate Donald Trump received 24.16%, and Socialist candidate Emidio Soltysik—the only third-party candidate on the ballot— received 4.22%. Overall, 32,071 people cast ballots there.

But there’s a catch: Even though the voters who live in Guam are American citizens, their votes in the presidential race don’t count because Guam has no representation in the Electoral College, USA Today notes. Guam residents are also not allowed to vote absentee from states, unlike U.S. citizens who live abroad.

Even though Guam doesn’t have any influence on the election, the island is still a good indication of how the rest of the nation may vote. After all, Guam has correctly chosen the winner of each presidential race since 1980, USA Today notes.

• In 2012, President Obama received 72.4% in Guam vs. 26.5% for Republican Mitt Romney.

• In 2008, Obama won the island with 57.3% of the vote, compared with 34% for the GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain.

• In 2004, President George W. Bush won with 64% of the vote, while Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry won 35.1%.

1980 was the first time the straw vote was conducted in Guam, according to USA Today. Since then, there has only been one upset: In 1996, a typhoon delayed voting for the islanders. Before they got to the polls, Americans had already chosen Bill Clinton as president.