The process of choosing the next President of the United States begins in earnest today with caucuses in Iowa – an embarrassment to democracy, but a proud tradition nonetheless.
The final Iowa poll this weekend, conducted by the Des Moines Register, showed Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz on the Republican side, 28% to 23%, and Hillary Clinton edging out Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, 45% to 42%. But in truth, both races are a toss up. The polls can’t be taken too seriously, as caucuses require a huge commitment of time by participants, and no pollster can reliably predict who will show up. Cruz has an organizational advantage over Trump; Clinton has a geographical advantage over Sanders, since his most intense supporters tend to be concentrated in certain areas.
Sanders closed out his campaign by going negative against Clinton, saying she’s in the pocket of Wall Street. Ted Cruz attacked the entire U.S. political structure, saying Iowans should support him because “the Washington elites” despise him. Trump, in classic style, ended his campaign by insulting Iowa caucus goers: “You have a lousy record – 16 years you haven’t picked a winner. Pick me this time.”
What’s missing in this four-person showdown, entertaining though it is, is a candidate who reflects the views of business – supporting free trade, reasonable immigration, limited government, and a pragmatic approach to solving problems. My former colleagues at the Pew Research Center did a typology of the American voter in 2014 that showed roughly 17% of voters fit into a category they called “business conservatives.” Those folks don’t have a viable horse in tonight’s race. Marco Rubio may emerge as their best bet with a likely third place finish on the GOP side. Business campaign donors don’t quite know what to do.
It’s going to be a long year.
More news below.
| Alan Murray | |
| @alansmurray | |
| alan.murray@fortune.com |
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