• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail

1

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

2

Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive

3

Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
TechApple

Look. Apple doesn’t obey the ‘law of large numbers.’ No company does.

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 24, 2015, 11:16 AM ET

The market’s reaction Friday to the latest earnings results from Google, Amazon and Microsoft (read Fortune’s coverage here, here and here) got reader Carl Lambert—who posts here as RadarTheKat—thinking about the “law of large numbers,” one of the most abused phrases in business journalism. (See below.)

“Here’s the article I wish someone would write,” he says. And then he proceeded to write it:

“Among the arguments why Apple shares cannot outperform the market or its peers has been the oft repeated law of large numbers; the claim that Apple is too big to meaningfully grow and that its market cap, at nearly $680 billion, is so big that there aren’t enough investment dollars to move the needle.

“But last night the market unwittingly provided an irrefutable counter argument by taking the combined market caps of Google, Amazon and Microsoft to nearly $1.2 trillion. The market seems to have no trouble adding $70 billion to these three companies, whose combined profits are a fraction of Apple’s, but won’t allow the same for a single company.

“It was Microsoft’s year 2000 valuation, north of $600 billion at the peak of the dotcom bubble and stagnant for the decade thereafter, that has since been used as the poster child for what happens to the company with the world’s highest market cap. The street is convinced that will be Apple’s fate.

“What the market doesn’t seem to understand is that vertically integrated Apple, in terms of the profits it generates and markets it addresses, is equivalent to the entire PC industry of the 1990s, including Microsoft, Sony, Toshiba, IBM’s PC division, Compaq, HP, and all the other PC makers. Adjusted for inflation, Microsoft’s year 2000 valuation alone would today be $850 billion, against Apple’s current $680 billion. How much higher when you add in all the PC makers from 2000?

“Apple’s market cap, given the scope of its business, and adjusted for inflation, is very conservative. As usual, the market is wrong.”

Screen Shot 2015-10-24 at 10.17.26 AM

I last wrote about the so-called “law of large numbers” a few years ago when I caught James B. Stewart, a Pulitzer-prize winning professor of business journalism at Columbia University, invoking it in the New York Times as a pseudo-mathematical explanation of why Apple, as of February 2012, had peaked. At the time I wrote:

“For the record, the law of large numbers—once shortened to “LOL numbers” (as in ‘laugh out loud’) by a wag in our comment stream, was first formulated in the 16th century and proven by Jacob Bernoulli in 1713. It states that the probability of an experiment—the average roll of a die, say—achieving the expected result increases the more times the experiment is performed. It has absolutely nothing to do with how big a company has grown.”

There ought to be a phrase for the self-evident truth that any company that’s growing faster than the economy as a whole can’t do so forever because eventually it would have to become larger than the economy it’s part of. But the law of large numbers is not it. And Apple may turn out not to be its poster child.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed. You might also want to subscribe to Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily newsletter on the business of technology.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

SpaceX’s next-gen rocket is the key to its sky-high valuation, early investor says: ‘Starship also enables all kinds of frontier markets’
Startups & VentureElon Musk
SpaceX’s next-gen rocket is the key to its sky-high valuation, early investor says: ‘Starship also enables all kinds of frontier markets’
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 24, 2026
22 hours ago
Dara Khosrowshahi speaks on stage and holds his palms in front of him, pressed together.
LifestyleUber Technologies
Uber CEO says rideshare ‘freed up’ his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he’s one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
23 hours ago
bofa
AIProductivity
BofA says you’ll be 10x more productive with AI. Ignore the 0.1% result so far
By Nick LichtenbergMay 24, 2026
23 hours ago
Inside the ‘stealth wealth’ playbook: How Silicon Valley’s elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real EstateLuxury
Inside the ‘stealth wealth’ playbook: How Silicon Valley’s elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
24 hours ago
David Bennahum
CommentaryMedia
I was one of the internet’s first influencers. AI just killed the whole category — and created something better
By David S. BennahumMay 24, 2026
1 day ago
Someone leafs through titles stacked in a library
AIResearch
AI hallucinations are infiltrating expert work—and entering the permanent body of knowledge
By Tristan BoveMay 24, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
4 days ago
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
Lifestyle
Uber CEO says rideshare 'freed up' his son from having to get a driver’s license—and he's one of many Gen Zers who aren’t willing to drive
By Sasha RogelbergMay 24, 2026
23 hours ago
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
Real Estate
Inside the 'stealth wealth' playbook: How Silicon Valley's elite buy multimillion-dollar mansions without leaving a paper trail
By Sydney LakeMay 24, 2026
24 hours ago
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
Success
Indeed chief economist says we’re entering an era of ‘great mismatch’ thanks to a generational imbalance of workers
By Emma BurleighMay 22, 2026
3 days ago
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
Success
This 39-year-old quit his lineman job during the pandemic and built a $50 million company in his backyard
By Nick LichtenbergMay 23, 2026
2 days ago
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
Workplace Culture
Bolt CEO says he let go of his entire HR team for creating problems that didn’t exist: ‘Those problems disappeared when I let them go’ 
By Preston ForeMay 19, 2026
6 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.