• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
TechApple

Look. Apple doesn’t obey the ‘law of large numbers.’ No company does.

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 24, 2015, 11:16 AM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The market’s reaction Friday to the latest earnings results from Google, Amazon and Microsoft (read Fortune’s coverage here, here and here) got reader Carl Lambert—who posts here as RadarTheKat—thinking about the “law of large numbers,” one of the most abused phrases in business journalism. (See below.)

“Here’s the article I wish someone would write,” he says. And then he proceeded to write it:

“Among the arguments why Apple shares cannot outperform the market or its peers has been the oft repeated law of large numbers; the claim that Apple is too big to meaningfully grow and that its market cap, at nearly $680 billion, is so big that there aren’t enough investment dollars to move the needle.

“But last night the market unwittingly provided an irrefutable counter argument by taking the combined market caps of Google, Amazon and Microsoft to nearly $1.2 trillion. The market seems to have no trouble adding $70 billion to these three companies, whose combined profits are a fraction of Apple’s, but won’t allow the same for a single company.

“It was Microsoft’s year 2000 valuation, north of $600 billion at the peak of the dotcom bubble and stagnant for the decade thereafter, that has since been used as the poster child for what happens to the company with the world’s highest market cap. The street is convinced that will be Apple’s fate.

“What the market doesn’t seem to understand is that vertically integrated Apple, in terms of the profits it generates and markets it addresses, is equivalent to the entire PC industry of the 1990s, including Microsoft, Sony, Toshiba, IBM’s PC division, Compaq, HP, and all the other PC makers. Adjusted for inflation, Microsoft’s year 2000 valuation alone would today be $850 billion, against Apple’s current $680 billion. How much higher when you add in all the PC makers from 2000?

“Apple’s market cap, given the scope of its business, and adjusted for inflation, is very conservative. As usual, the market is wrong.”

Screen Shot 2015-10-24 at 10.17.26 AM

I last wrote about the so-called “law of large numbers” a few years ago when I caught James B. Stewart, a Pulitzer-prize winning professor of business journalism at Columbia University, invoking it in the New York Times as a pseudo-mathematical explanation of why Apple, as of February 2012, had peaked. At the time I wrote:

“For the record, the law of large numbers—once shortened to “LOL numbers” (as in ‘laugh out loud’) by a wag in our comment stream, was first formulated in the 16th century and proven by Jacob Bernoulli in 1713. It states that the probability of an experiment—the average roll of a die, say—achieving the expected result increases the more times the experiment is performed. It has absolutely nothing to do with how big a company has grown.”

There ought to be a phrase for the self-evident truth that any company that’s growing faster than the economy as a whole can’t do so forever because eventually it would have to become larger than the economy it’s part of. But the law of large numbers is not it. And Apple may turn out not to be its poster child.

Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple (AAPL) coverage at fortune.com/ped or subscribe via his RSS feed. You might also want to subscribe to Data Sheet, Fortune’s daily newsletter on the business of technology.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Tech

China’s Moonshot, Z.AI, and DeepSeek are challenging U.S. AI labs—and beating them on cost
MagazineChina
China’s Moonshot, Z.AI, and DeepSeek are challenging U.S. AI labs—and beating them on cost
By Nicholas GordonJuly 26, 2026
4 hours ago
Big Tech earnings slam into a market in revolt over AI spending
Big Techearnings
Big Tech earnings slam into a market in revolt over AI spending
By Jeran Wittenstein, Ryan Vlastelica and BloombergJuly 26, 2026
6 hours ago
James Cameron tried to warn us: ‘Skynet Day’ is now shorthand for OpenAI’s agent going rogue and hacking into a startup
AIOpenAI
James Cameron tried to warn us: ‘Skynet Day’ is now shorthand for OpenAI’s agent going rogue and hacking into a startup
By Laurie Kellman, Lindsey Bahr and The Associated PressJuly 26, 2026
6 hours ago
Jeff Bezos says being lazy, not working hard, is the root of anxiety: ‘The stress goes away the second I take that first step’
SuccessJeff Bezos
Jeff Bezos says being lazy, not working hard, is the root of anxiety: ‘The stress goes away the second I take that first step’
By Sydney LakeJuly 26, 2026
11 hours ago
A Gen Xer sold his company for $1.6 billion. He kept less than $100 million and gave the rest away because he doesn’t ‘believe in billionaires’
SuccessHow I made my first million
A Gen Xer sold his company for $1.6 billion. He kept less than $100 million and gave the rest away because he doesn’t ‘believe in billionaires’
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 26, 2026
11 hours ago
The Trump administration has accrued roughly $26.7 billion across 30 equity or quasi-equity deals
EconomyDonald Trump
The U.S. government invested $27 billion in corporate stakes. Good luck finding them
By Eva RoytburgJuly 26, 2026
13 hours ago

Most Popular

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
2 days ago
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
Middle East
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
Economy
College-educated women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 26, 2026
15 hours ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
Success
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
2 days ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
3 days ago
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
Environment
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.