• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

2

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

3

Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026

1

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

2

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

3

Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026
FinanceEconomy

U.S. economy is improving, just in time for the holiday shopping season

By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Matthews
Chris Matthews
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 26, 2014, 1:31 PM ET
Holiday Shoppers Seek Out Deals On Black Friday
BRAINTREE, MA - NOVEMBER 23: Melissa Menses pays for her purchases at checkout during Black Friday sales at Target in the South Shore Plaza on November 23, 2012 in Braintree, Massachusetts. Black Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, has traditionally been the busiest shopping day in the United States. (Photo by Allison Joyce/Getty Images)Photograph by Allison Joyce — Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

For Christmas this year, the U.S. might finally be given the sort of recovery we’ve all been waiting for.

Economists expect that following recessions, an economy should grow more quickly than than its long-term potential, so that growth eventually catches up to the pre-recession trend. Our most recent recovery, however, never lived up to this expectation, and the economy simply sputtered along rather than making up for lost time.

But Tuesday’s revision of GDP growth suggests the U.S. economy might finally be seeing the above-trend growth we’ve been waiting for. As Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics points out, other than in the first quarter of 2014, the economy has been growing at a 3.5% annual rate since the middle of last year. “We believe the trend in real growth is now at least 3 percent, and possibly even 3.5 percent. In any event, it’s above the potential growth rate, which is probably no more than 2 percent currently,” he writes.

There is some disappointing news packed into this analysis. As researchers at the Federal Reserve noted this week, the potential growth rate of the economy has most certainly been damaged by the financial crisis and subsequent recession, while many economists predict that the U.S. will grow slower in the coming years than the post World War II average simply because of the aging of the workforce and slowing population growth.


But if we are, in fact, growing above trend, that means the economy will be closer to reaching full employment—a necessary condition for rising wages.

And there are signs that this wage growth might be around the corner. While wage data in the monthly jobs report suggests that the average American’s pay is rising only fast enough to keep pace with inflation, Tuesday’s GDP numbers show private income rising at nearly twice that rate, likely because the Labor Department data leaves out income workers earn from sources like annual bonuses. Meanwhile, as the unemployment rate continues to fall, it’s expected that employers will have to respond to a tightening market by raising salaries.

And there’s reason for optimism beyond rising wages. Consumer confidence ticked down in November, but that was after a huge jump in October that placed the Conference Board’s index at a seven-year high. As Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta argues, the number of consumers expecting to buy a home has risen throughout the year, while the number expecting to buy major appliances is at its highest since 2010. This may have something to do with consistently declining gas prices. Since retail gas prices are 88 cents below their recent highs, Dutta argues that American consumers could end up saving a total of $119 billion over the next year, if prices stay this low.

With this price break coming just as the holiday shopping season ramps up, consumers might be willing to spend rather than save that money, giving an extra boost to the economy.

And finally, the housing market is showing signs of life. Tuesday’s Case-Shiller report demonstrated that while home price appreciation is continuing to slow, the trend is healthy. IHS Global Insights’ Patrick Newport called it a “good report,” arguing that the slowdown is due to added supply and fewer foreclosures rather than a weakening economy.

Meanwhile, the Census Department announced on Wednesday that new home sales increased 1.8% from last October, to an annual rate of 458,000 units. While this number is quite low by historical standards, the data show that the construction industry is continuing to recover, albeit slowly.

But economists believe that the main force holding back new sales and construction is simply the lack of household formation, which has yet to rebound in a significant way. But if wages begin to pick up in the final quarter of 2014 and next year, that could be a catalyst for young people to begin to move into their own homes, and for these data to recover to their pre-recession norms.

About the Author
By Chris Matthews
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Finance

family
Real EstateHousing
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going ‘back to the early 1900s’
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
50 minutes ago
t
CommentaryCommunity
Ronald Reagan center director: How to talk politics with family, friends and neighbors, without losing them
By Frederick J. Ryan, Jr.July 25, 2026
50 minutes ago
An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 14, makes an arrested landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln
SuccessWealth
Defense tech investors thought the war in Iran could make them millionaires. Instead, they faced a Wall Street bloodbath
By Preston ForeJuly 25, 2026
2 hours ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors’ trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
SuccessCareers
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors’ trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
3 hours ago
Capital One’s big bet on baseball—and why they think it can help win the credit card loyalty wars
Arts & EntertainmentCapital One Financial
Capital One’s big bet on baseball—and why they think it can help win the credit card loyalty wars
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 25, 2026
3 hours ago
Trump has no remaining levers to pull as oil hovers near the $100 ‘psychological’ threshold
EnergyIran
Trump has no remaining levers to pull as oil hovers near the $100 ‘psychological’ threshold
By Jordan BlumJuly 25, 2026
5 hours ago

Most Popular

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
1 day ago
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 24, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 24, 2026
1 day ago
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
Economy
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of silver as of Friday, July 24, 2025
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Friday, July 24, 2025
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 24, 2026
1 day ago
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
Real Estate
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 22, 2026
3 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.