The Federal Open Market Committee, the group that makes decisions on monetary policy within the Federal Reserve, ends its two-day meeting Wednesday with a policy statement at 2 p.m. ET.
Don’t expect to see Fed Chair Janet Yellen at the podium; she isn’t scheduled to give a post-meeting conference today. And don’t hold your breath for any new economic projections, but do be on the lookout for what the group will say on issues of concern, and any indication of future interest rate rises. Here’s what to pay attention to when the Fed releases its statement today.
1. The end of quantitative easing.
Central bankers are expected to say they are winding down the Fed’s two-year stimulus initiative known as QE3, the bank’s third round of quantitative easing. The $4 trillion bond-buying program is the method by which the Fed bought up Treasury and mortgage bonds to prop up the economy, and to provide cash to banks that could then lend out that money. The bond-buying started in late 2008. The big question following the meeting is: what will happen once the stimulus stops? There are concerns out there as to whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to keep growing without it.
2. Any word on the future of interest rate hikes.
Even as QE comes to a close, the Fed is expected to stay mum on the future of interest rate hikes. Officials have emphasized that they’re aren’t in a rush to push policy tightening further by raising interest rates given the current state of the economy.
“The Fed will remain keen to defuse any large scale market turmoil in the immediate term,” Nick Gartside, chief investment officer, fixed income, at JP Morgan Asset Management in London, told Reuters. “And will continue to focus on language that helps to stabilize the markets.”
3. Stubbornly low inflation is still worrisome.
Inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% target for 28 consecutive months, as tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s consumer price index. The lack of any price gains is one major reason the central bank would hold back on raising interest rates too soon, according to recent speeches by regional Fed Presidents William C. Dudley of New York, Charles Evans of Chicago and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis.
The Fed has said that the risk of inflation coming in consistently below its 2% target has “diminished somewhat since early this year,” following its September meeting. The majority of economists believe the committee will stick closely to this language, according to a Bloomberg survey.
4. People still aren’t being put back to full-time work.
In September, the Fed said it was worried about the “significant underutilization of labor resources.” While the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level that month (5.9%) many workers are still underemployed. The unemployment rate that includes the jobless plus those employed part-time but would like more and people who have given up looking for work remains elevated at 11.8%.
Nearly 64% of economists in the Bloomberg survey expect the Fed to hold to its “significant” language.
5. What is the status of global growth?
The eurozone and China face slowing economic growth, which poses a potential threat to U.S. expansion, according to the Fed’s September statement. That comment sent the U.S. markets spinning and resulted in the most volatile week since the financial crisis.
The committee will be very careful in how — and if — it addresses global growth in its policy statement this month. If the issue isn’t addressed Wednesday, it will more likely show up in the group’s minutes due out Nov. 19.
