Binance is in trouble—or poised to dominate

There has been a flurry of news about Binance in the last week, and whether that news is good or bad depends on how you want to read the tea leaves. The company’s many critics will look at the latest developments as proof that Binance is circling the drain ahead of a long overdue collapse—while its defenders can make a case that the company’s founder, Changpeng Zhao, is playing fourth-dimensional chess while everyone is else playing checkers.

Let’s start with the news that the world’s biggest crypto exchange has tapped executive Richard Teng to lead all of its regional markets outside of the U.S.—a role that amounts to being Binance’s global CEO in terms of duties, if not in name. This is a big development since Zhao appears to be handing over the day-to-day operations to someone else.

You can read this as a signal that Zhao is in imminent danger from multiple investigations and that in a panic he handed the wheel to someone else. This is certainly plausible. The company and Zhao were hit with a raft of regulatory charges in March by the U.S. derivatives regulator, and everyone is waiting for a much bigger shoe to drop in the form of criminal charges brought by the powerful Justice Department. It’s possible, though, that Zhao has seen this moment coming for years and carefully cultivated Teng—a one-time CEO of Binance Singapore who has an impressive résumé from the traditional finance sector—all along.

Then there is the report this week that Binance may soon allow institutional clients to post collateral with banks rather than on the exchange itself—a move that would increase the company’s expenses and undercut its margins. Those bearish on Binance can point to this development as a signal that institutions don’t trust the company to hold their money. The rosier view is that the company is developing relationships with the traditional sector that will increase customer confidence in Binance and attract more big clients over time.

Finally, on Wednesday, came reports that Binance was laying off 20% of its 8,000-person workforce—a claim the company denied, insisting that any departures simply represented a shuffling of talent. Zhao added that Binance has long had a “bottom out” program to nudge out poor performers and that such shake-ups were part of a larger commitment to efficiency that has helped the firm stay profitable even during two Crypto Winters. Here again, you can interpret this either as a company in distress—or one that is highly tuned to operate in bull and bear markets alike.

For my part, I simply can’t tell whether all of this means Binance is on the point of implosion, or if, instead, it’s laying the foundation for long-term dominance. But I have a feeling we’ll know the answer by the end of summer.

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

DECENTRALIZED NEWS

PayPal Ventures and others invested $52 million in Magic, a startup that provides crypto wallet tools to companies like Mattel and Macy's. (Fortune)

Plaid, a widely used tool for consumers to connect their banks to fintech apps like Venmo, is thriving after the DOJ kiboshed Visa's attempt to buy it in 2020. (Bloomberg)

A new report found crypto companies spent $11.9 million on lobbying last year—led by Coinbase, Binance, and Chainalysis—compared with $7.7 million in 2021. (WSJ)

The price of Bitcoin slumped in response to signs the Fed intends to keep hiking interest rates. (Coindesk)

Ethereum cofounder Joe Lubin appears to have won—just barely—a five-year $500,000 bet against Bitcoin maximalist Jimmy Song over whether the newer blockchain could succeed. (Coindesk)