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Q1 2025

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Howmet Aerospace (HWM): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Howmet Aerospace

howmet aerospace

Good day and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 results conference call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question and answer session. I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings. In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income, and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, adjusted operating income excluding special items, and adjusted EPS excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion.

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Thank you, Paul, and welcome to the Howmet Q3 call. Let's start with the company highlights on slide four. Q3 was a very strong quarter for Howmet. Revenue growth continues to accelerate and was up 14% compared to 8% in the first half. Within this revenue growth, commercial aerospace increased 15% and within this number, commercial aerospace parts sales increased by 38% for a total spares increase of 31%. EBITDA was up 26% and operating income up 29%. Cash flow was also healthy at $423 million after capital expenditures of $108 million. Year to date, capital expenditures are approximately $330 million. Regarding share buyback, $200 million of cash was deployed to buybacks in Q3 with an additional $100 million buyback in October. October year to date buyback is now $600 million, which is $100 million higher than the 2024 full year.

We also paid off the balance of $63 million of a U.S. term loan early, which was due in November 2026, and with the resulting net leverage now stands at 1.1x net debt to EBITDA. Dividend payments were also increased in August by a further 20% versus the prior quarter and earnings per share increased by just over 34%. Other commentary which may be helpful is that working capital days improved year-over-year, allowing for the increased capital expenditures for future growth and all within the free cash flow number previously referenced. Headcount did increase by a further 265 people, mainly within the engines business as we staff our new manufacturing plants as planned. The increase in headcount has slowed as we go into the second half, although we envision hiring again as we pick up in early 2026.

Now let me turn the call over to Ken to cover the markets and segment performance.

Okay, thank you John. Let's move to slide five. End markets continue to be strong with total revenue up 14%. Commercial aerospace was up 15%, exceeding $1.1 billion in the quarter. Commercial aerospace growth is driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 24%. Growth was driven by engine spares, which increased 33%, and new F-35 aircraft builds as expected. Commercial transportation was challenging with revenue down 3% in the third quarter, including the pass through of higher aluminum costs and tariffs. On a volume basis, wheels volume was down 16%. Finally, the industrial and other markets were up a healthy 18%, driven by oil and gas up 33% and IGT up 23%.

In the future, it's likely that we will combine oil and gas and IGT when reporting revenue by market. The definition of oil and gas versus mid to small IGT has become somewhat blurred since many turbines now have increasing end use for data centers. In summary, continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation within Howmet's markets. The combination of spares for commercial aero, defense aero, IGT, and oil and gas was up 31% in the third quarter. Now let's move to slide six. Starting with the P&L, Q3 revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. Revenue was up 14%. EBITDA exceeded $600 million as it outpaced revenue growth and was up 26%. EBITDA margin increased 290 basis points to 29.4% while absorbing the cost of approximately 265 net headcount additions.

Earnings per share was $0.95, which was up a solid 34%. Moving to the balance sheet and free cash flow, the balance sheet continues to strengthen. Free cash flow was excellent at $423 million. Free cash flow included the acceleration of capital expenditures with $108 million invested in the quarter and approximately $330 million year to date, which is higher than the full year 2024 capital expenditures. About 70% of the capital expenditures year to date is for our engines business as we continue to invest for growth in commercial aerospace and IGT. Investments are backed by customer contracts. Quarter end cash was a healthy $660 million. Year to date, debt has been reduced by $140 million as we paid off at par the U.S. term loan which was due in November of 2026. The early prepayments will reduce annualized interest expense drag by approximately $8 million.

Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve to a record low of 1.1x. All long term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates. Howmet's improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in S&P's Q3 rating upgrade from BBB to BBB+, which is three notches into investment grade. Liquidity remains strong with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program, both of which have not been utilized. Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $770 million of cash to common stock repurchases, debt pay down, and quarterly dividends year to date through September. In the quarter, we repurchased $200 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $182 per share. Q3 was the 18th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases.

The average diluted share count improved to a Q3 exit rate of 405 million shares. Additionally, in October we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $192 per share. October year to date, common stock repurchases are $600 million at an average price of approximately $156 per share. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.6 billion as of the end of October. Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. We increased the quarterly dividend by 20% in the third quarter to $0.12 per share, which is up 50% higher than Q3 of last year. Now let's move to slide seven to cover the segment results for the third quarter. The Engines products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 17% to $1.1 billion.

Commercial aerospace was up 13%, defense aerospace was up 23%, oil and gas was up 33%, and IGT was up 23%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our engines markets. With strong engine spares volume, EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 20% to $368 million. EBITDA margin increased 80 basis points year-over-year to 33.3% while absorbing approximately 265 net new employees in the quarter year to date. Engines has invested in approximately 1,125 incremental head count which has a near term margin drag but positions us well for future growth. Now let's move to slide eight. The fastening systems team also delivered a record quarter for revenue. EBITDA and EBITDA margin revenue increased 14% to $448 million.

Commercial aerospace was up 27%, defense aerospace was up 2%, general industrial was up 3%, and commercial transportation, which represents approximately 12% of Fastening Systems' revenue, was down 17%. EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 35% to $138 million. Despite the sluggish recovery of wide body aircraft builds along with weakness in commercial transportation, EBITDA margin increased a robust 480 basis points year-over-year to 30.8% as the team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance. Now let's move to slide nine. Engineered structures had a solid quarter. Revenue increased 14% to $289 million. Commercial aero was up 7% and defense aerospace was up 42%, primarily driven by the end of the destocking of the F-35 program. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 53% to $58 million.

EBITDA margin increased 510 basis points to 20.1% as we continue to optimize the structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability. Finally, let's move to slide 10, forged wheels. Revenue was essentially flat as a 16% decrease in volume was largely offset by higher aluminum costs, tariff pass through, and favorable foreign currency. EBITDA was strong at $73 million, an increase of 14%. Despite a challenging market, EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.6%. The unfavorable margin impact of lower volumes and higher pass throughs were more than offset by flexing of costs, favorable product mix driven by our premium products, and favorable foreign currency. The wheels team has continued to expand margins despite market metal cost and tariff uncertainty. Now let me turn it back over to John.

Thank you, Ken. Let's move to slide 11 to discuss the outlook. In summary, before I go into details, the outlook is solid. Air travel continues to grow year-over-year after a solid summer period. The backlog of commercial aircraft extends for many years. Even after assuming increases in build rates throughout the next five years, the current aircraft fleet has aged. These factors combine to provide both healthy OE demand and a growing demand for aircraft aftermarket parts, especially in the engine for wearing parts, namely the turbine blades in the hot gas path section of the engine. Defense sales continue to be strong with steady F-35 OE sales plus some increase in legacy fighter jets, namely the F-15 and the F-16. This is also combined with growth in defense spare sales.

In oil and gas, the demand is steady while growth in IGT is extremely strong again in both OE and aftermarket sectors. The part of the market which I have not previously made much commentary on is the midsize turbines of up to 45 MW where growth of both aero derivative engines and dedicated midsize turbines is expected to grow for many years. This is mainly the result of data center buildouts and the need to supply these data centers with either independent fundamental electricity supply or with very fast acting turbine response to ensure uninterrupted supply from the grid and from utilities. It is increasingly difficult for us to separate the end market for these turbines between oil and gas compared to IGT.

Commercial truck volumes continue to struggle with smaller fleets, in particular not buying trucks due to the low freight rates and also combine this with the large price increases for Class 8 trucks principally due to tariffs. The tariff changes continue to produce uncertainty for Howmet. However, the net tariff continues to be small at around $5 million±. As discussed in the last earnings call, the revenue outlook for the balance of 2025 has increased compared to the prior guide, benefiting from the stronger Boeing 737 builds and also engine spares. The buildout of our footprint with the five new manufacturing plants or extensions continues. The most vital immediate part of our expansion going into 2026 is the new Michigan Aero engine core and casting plant, which is on track with machines now building some parts.

There remains a lot more equipment to be installed during the next six months, but everything is currently as it should be. The new plant we've installed for tooling is now equipped and staffing well underway. Being a little bit more specific regarding the 2026 outlook, we see revenues of $9 billion±, which is an increase of about 10% year on year. This number will be further refined in our February 2026 earnings call, where we will also provide more detailed guidance. Moving to the fourth quarter of 2025, we see revenue to be $2.1 billion ±$10 million. EBITDA $610 million ±$5 million. Earnings per share, $0.95 ±$0.01.

For the year, the numbers are now revenue at $8.15 billion ±$10 million, EBITDA at $2.375 billion ±$5 million, earnings per share at $3.67 ±$0.01, and free cash flow $1.3 billion ±$25 million. In summary, 2025 is another good year for Howmet, with free cash flow guided substantially higher than the last earnings call, even after the higher capital expenditure, which is therefore future growth in the company. Before moving to Q&A, I did want to thank Ken Giacobbe for his years of dedicated service. It's been quite the journey for Ken and him being my partner in all of this, from his days at Alcoa to Howmet, which interestingly, as one of the three parts of former Alcoa, is now worth more than a single Alcoa company ever was.

All the very best to Ken in his well-earned retirement.

I just want to offer you the opportunity of adding any comments.

Yeah, John, appreciate the kind words and appreciate the partnership. It's been a privilege and a pleasure to work with you, the Board of Directors, and the Howmet team. Results have been remarkable. I think a lot of that is driven by the positive culture that you have built over the years. That culture is one that we talk about quite a bit, one of focus, innovation in terms of everything we do, empowerment, accountability, shared purpose, and winning, which is quite refreshing. As I look forward, I believe Howmet is well positioned for the future with a clear, clear path forward and an exceptional leadership team at the helm. As I conclude my 21 year tenure with immense gratitude and also confidence in Howmet's future, I want to thank you for the opportunity to be part of such a remarkable organization. Wishing you and the team continued success.

Yes, sir. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please keep yourself to one question only at this time. We will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning everyone. Ken, congratulations on your retirement. Thank you for all the thoughtful insights over the years and hope you've got something very fun planned. John, the investments in technology you've made in aerospace has resulted in Howmet being a clear leader in this area, especially for the hot section of the jet engine. Now, pivoting to this data center buildout, we're starting to see this industry really gain a lot of traction. You've called out capital expenditures increases last quarter and also this quarter. Can you just take a step back and provide us more color on what the competitive landscape is like for turbines and industrial gas turbines, how differentiated is your technology, the pricing environment, and what's your expected returns in this sector and how that compares with aerospace?

Okay, that's a very broad question. It gives me the opportunity to talk now for at least an hour.

I'll keep it to that question though, John.

Yeah, thank you. This is only one question. First of all, clearly this build out of data centers and the requirement for electricity to not only drive the processing and the microchips or these advanced microchips that are being installed, but also the electricity required to cool them is producing an extraordinary level of demand, which I think we know that the utility companies themselves and the grid is struggling to cope with. How can that be satisfied? It did change again with a new incoming administration in the early part of this year when there's a greater emphasis on fossil fuels and really natural gas being the technology of choice compared to renewables. That had caused us to think again regarding the investment profile for this business. The back class of the fundamentals appears to be well set.

Certainly, you look for the next few years, the build out and the requirements are extraordinary. The question remains, of course, what would it look like when we are at the turn of the decade in terms of its future growth. Having said that, I do think these data centers, which are there not just for the introduction and use of AI, but also just fundamental requirement for storage, means that the electricity demand will be there and so solid and gives us a lot of confidence to invest, albeit we don't have the same clarity regarding backlog numbers that we have in the commercial aerospace market. You don't quite have that same, I would say, clarity and visibility into the back orders.

It's caused us to keep rethinking our investments and we've kicked it up again this year and you've seen with our guided capital expenditure increases in investments that we are making. We expect that capital expenditures in 2026 and indeed going into 2027 will be also at high levels, while not disturbing what our fundamental aim is, which is to convert 90% of our net income into free cash flow. It's a tall order. At the same time, we expect we're excited to be part of this growth opportunity. When I think about what's happening, there is growth in both the large industrial gas turbines that you see bought by utilities which provide the electricity which is transmitted over the grid.

Now, given the large demand, there are gas turbines being installed at the data center sites or clusters of data center sites in a centralized facility to provide that underlying electricity. Beyond that, as backups to all this or in the case where you just can't get a large gas turbine at the moment because they're quite scarce and orders now going out, if you place a new order, you're not going to get that big land-based gas turbine until probably into 2030 or beyond. In that case, a lot of midsize turbines are now being installed, not just for the fundamental production of electricity, but also because they're very fast reacting. It ensures that the supply of electricity to the data centers is uninterrupted and therefore it's providing a lot of stimulated demand for the aero derivatives.

In fact, if you look at the results this weekend, Caterpillar, you're seeing that and they're one of our major customers in those midsize turbines. It's quite exciting. In terms of technology, it's going very much along the same lines that we have had in aerospace where we have moved or are moving from turbine blades which are solid to turbine blades which are increasingly cored. What I mean by cored is that you have air paths through those turbine blades to provide them with cooling air such that those turbines can be run at higher temperatures. It's very much going along the evolution path that we've had in the aerospace world.

As we move forward over the next, let's say, two, three, four, five years, and it's happening right now, we're installing additional capabilities to be able to produce the sophisticated, finely tolerance cores that enable that next level of technology to be achieved. That's both for the midsize turbines and indeed for the very large turbines that utilities tend to buy. If you look at the most recent developments, without giving you specific model numbers or customers, some of those now initial turbine blades are as sophisticated as the possibly most sophisticated commercial, not necessarily military, but commercial aerospace use in terms of the numbers of, I'll say, serpentine air pathway through those turbine blades.

Of course, with that goes content and value because it is again producing a level of capability, electricity generation well above what you could have achieved with turbines of, let's say, five years ago or 10 years ago. It's a pretty expensive, exciting landscape in terms of playing to our strengths. The more sophisticated technology, it's causing us to expand. You've heard me talk about the new manufacturing plant that we have or are building. In fact, at the end of this year, the structure will be complete to enable us to put new capabilities in, for example, new casting machines into that plant in the early part of 2026 to bring capacity on not just for our customers in Japan like Mitsubishi Heavy, but also other customers like Siemens and GE and Ansaldo, etc.

We are doing that, plus we're also expanding a plant in Europe significantly and also placing new capital in the existing footprint of our U.S. facility. We're expanding in each of our three major sites where we produce gas turbine parts. I'm really excited to be part of this journey, which really is evolving very much in the same way as our aerospace business, not only for those midsize turbines but also now for the very large gas turbines. It's a pretty exciting time for us to be able to build out this business, to be a very significant contributor for the company. I'll stop there just in case I'm now getting too carried away with it, but I just want to make sure I hit the points of your question, Kristine.

Thank you very much, John. I'll keep it to that one.

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Thanks.

Won't let you go on too long, but the end market implied growth in your $9 billion. Could you share that as well as perhaps you've been running obviously well ahead.

Of long-term incrementals, the 30% or 40% that you'd previously spoken of long.

Let me deal with your last point first regarding margins and incrementals. I think as you know, I don't really give color on that at this time of year. That's more for the February call. I'll certainly preserve any profit guidance for February. I note that in Q3 our incrementals were again quite healthy at 50%. Obviously, we've given you a guide already for Q4, so I think it's a similar number for Q4 but Ken could always correct me on that. It's pretty strong for this year. Next year I guess when we come up with a number, it'll probably underwhelm you because it always does. We never seem to be able to quite satisfy your expectations. At the same time, I think that whatever we come up with will be very satisfactory in 2026.

It's a long way of talking about the subject for a minute or two without actually saying much at all. In terms of the first part of your question, which was where do we see end market growth, my sense is without getting too deep into the guide at this point because it's approximation, commercial aerospace will be stronger in 2026. I think the build out of narrow bodies both for Airbus and for Boeing will be stronger in 2026 than it has been in 2025. The likelihood of the wide bodies, particularly the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787, I think both of those are going to be at a higher build rate than this year. I'm pretty optimistic about commercial aero. I see that being a few percentage points as an absolute higher than in 2025.

In defense, coming off this year, which is pretty strong at +20%, I can see us having a mid single digits increase again on top of that into 2026. I'm pretty confident about our positioning on the defense side. I was going to call it the industrial segment, which will wrap up three segments, which is the gas turbine one, which I think you can sense is going to be at the high end, the oil and gas which will be in the middle, and then general industrial which will be at the lower end. I'll combine all of that and say basically around just getting into double digits as an increase. That will be the sense I have for the underlying big segment commentary for next year.

While I'm on a roll, I'll just talk about inside commercial aero because I know you're going to follow up with the question like what's your underlying assumptions? I think Boeing 737 will be higher. I'll say I use 40 or getting into the 40s as an approximation, the A320 into the early 60s, maybe I know 62, 63, 787, I'll use 7.5 and A350, maybe 6.5, could be 7. It's in those sort of areas. It's giving you directionally what I think you want without getting too specific because again I'd like to see how people close out, our customers close out this year, what the state of their inventory is.

As you know, certain of our airframe customers have been taking inventory down and I have to think about the robustness of their build while they've been taking inventory down and the consistency, and hopefully we're going to see improved consistency into 2026 in the same way as we've seen it for the last two or three quarters where it's become somewhat, a little bit more predictable.

The next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Good morning everyone. This is Mariana Pérez Mora, I'm from Rome today. First of all, congratulations Ken, on the retirement and congratulations on your contribution to the company and the industry in general.

I'd like to follow up on, try to dig deeper as we think about next year into two things. Number one, how we think about, I'll say on the commercial aero part, destocking trends and aftermarket trends or spare engine trends despite this ramp that we are all expecting on OE. The second one is when you think about IGT, how dependent the guidance is on the capacity that will be coming online end of this year and mid next year, how sensitive is guidance to the timing of that, like incremental capacity?

Okay, let's deal with the IGT part first and then go back to commercial aero. This year we've seen the benefits of both small increases in gas turbine build at the large land-based turbines, probably a slightly higher build in terms of those midsize turbines and percentage increase. This year's also featured an increase in spares as the existing fleet of both types of turbines, and maybe the midsize turbines being very strong in terms of their spares requirements because those fleets are working harder. That gives you a picture there. When we move into 2026 and into 2027, we're going to see fundamental demand, and turbine builds are expected to increase again into 2027, beyond 2026.

On the OE side, it's going to be obviously a factor of are all the turbines going to be actually built that are planned and how we are able to step up to those builds. I see that, as you know, whereas this year I'd say been slightly stronger on the spares, but still solid on the OE side, next year I think we're probably going to see a higher vector compared to this year on the OE demand, but still strong spares demand. I'm feeling pretty positive about those segments. It's difficult to judge exactly yet which one will win in terms of those two if there was a race between them. Moving back to the commercial aero question, I've already given you a commentary regarding what I think build rates are.

I think the stocking essentially is finished this quarter and I don't really see much evidence of that remaining. If anything, it could only be a little bit left in the titanium area where people built up stocks because of either lack of build or trying to provide security stocks in the case of what happened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the supply issues at the VSMPO. In terms of spares and engine spares, I think 2026 is going to be another very strong year for that. If you deal with CFM first, then I envisage that it's going to be strong on the CFM56 because the existing fleets can continue to work hard. There's still a backlog of parts and engines are going to be put back on wing and into the air. Similarly, and maybe even a higher area for those V2500 and the GTF engines.

Spares demand is going to be very strong. As these GTF engines transition to the new, I'll say, versions of them. The new parts which have got into the LEAP-1A and the ones which should go into the 1B next year and then into the GTF, there will be not only the OE demand, but also the retrofit requirements for improving the robustness of those engines and to get a lot of engines back on wing. I hope that covers it.

Yes, thank you so much for the color, and if I may squeeze another one, it looks like ancient history now because of how hectic the year is. It wasn't long ago that you guys had to call for force majeure on the tariffs and raw materials. Could you mind giving us some color around how is that today and how you think about risks on raw materials and pricing and pass throughs going into next year?

I think we're pretty solid in terms of our pass through capabilities either under existing contracts or with new agreements that we've made with our customers for each of our end markets. What was the gross effect that we could see? I think originally it was up to $100 million, that with the delay of implementation and certain exemptions that have been provided, maybe that number came down. Recently we've seen some of the tariffs increase again, thinking now on the Class 8 area. It's been moving around and still continues to move around even as recently as yesterday. The net effect is still sub $5 million for the year, and that essentially is the drag that's just in terms of timing of recovery.

As an issue for how much it really is, I'm going to call it a non-issue, sub $5 million, and therefore hopefully it disappears into the woodwork in 2026.

The next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good morning, guys, and congrats, John, on great results, and Ken, on your retirement. Although I'd argue with Kristine that working with John is plenty of fun. I don't know what you'll do in retirement that's even better. Ken, I'm going to throw this.

I can agree with that. You can just say stop there, and Ken, what the heck are you thinking?

Ken, I'm going to actually put this one on you just given I thought the comments on Howmet being more valuable than the three pieces was very interesting. Over the next few years, where do you see Howmet end state? Just given where the balance sheet is, leverage is at record lows, margins in each segment are terrific. Lots of areas of expansion. How do you think about Howmet over the next few years?

Yeah, Sheila, I think I'm going to have to let John answer that one. I don't want to get fired this late.

I think if you look at the journey that we've made over the recent years from trying to install performance culture through more difficult times of COVID that came upon us fairly quickly and then trying to really invest in our technology and really address growing the company, I think the growth trajectory is very encouraging. While we've been, it's a walking and chewing gum or doing the, and it's not at all. We've been growing and improving our margin. My thought is that we'll continue to do that. Of the value equation, I think maybe the growth will be a more significant factor over the next five years than the margin factor. That's not to say that the margin won't improve. That's what we come to work for every day to try to achieve that.

I think there's lots of things yet to further expand in terms of whether it's the increased automation capacities that we have or capabilities that we have in the company. There's the thing which we've been talking a lot about recently, about how we can use artificial intelligence and machine learning in our manufacturing plants. It isn't just basic automation. It is data collection ethics streams that we've never seen before. When we have the opportunity next March, where we're planning on an investor day or investor technology day, basing it at Whitehall plant again and we'll showcase the new manufacturing plant that we have there, then beyond just the fundamental increase in robotics which I think people have seen, it's always at a high level. It's another stage beyond that.

For me, probably even more important than that is what we term the digital thread that we've been building throughout the manufacturing process, from the chemical compounding right the way through core prep and then into shell and casting and being able to provide data and individual traceability right back to its fundamental elements for each of our parts that we're manufacturing. With that huge amount of data that we are positioning ourselves to collect, using various techniques to be able to use artificial intelligence, because the sheer scale of data we have or we're going to have available to us takes us beyond what any human being could possibly analyze and data crunch. I think that's going to lend towards a further improvement in our ability to improve yields. Improving yields, of course, goes with economics.

With the improvement in the yields, we can take the design tolerances to a further level, which will provide again for the next generation of content improvement and fuel efficiency for both not only our aerospace segment, but also the gas turbine segment. I think all of that coming together and using a combination of automation and AI and all the things we're trying to position for is going to be good for Sheila.

The next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everyone. Congrats, Ken, on the retirement and the evolution of this financial model. Wanted to come back to incremental margins, guys. You have this historical framework a few years ago of 30%-35% on the incremental, and you've now created this kind of wall of tough compares. You've now had two quarters in a row where you've had well above the 30%-35%, despite comparing to well above that. I was hoping to better understand, is price or productivity the bigger driver at the moment? As you move into 2026, can you stay above that historical targeted range despite the tougher compares?

Yeah, I mean, again, I'm going to try to steer away from 2026, not at this time. Any number is always going to be a combination of things. In our incrementals, we've got obviously some leverage for volume, we've got the benefits of automation, we've got the benefits of yields, we've got the benefits of content. We also have the benefits of price as well. We have many individual threads going into that. The only parts which are currently negative would be the fairly high ingestion of labor, which takes, I think, as you know, a fairly significant training time, never mind just the costs of recruitment. There's a slight degradation initially from those employees in terms of yield. What I expect going forward is that hopefully the drag of that labor becomes a little bit less because the denominator gets higher.

My guess is that we're probably going to have to hire a net higher number of people ultimately as we move through 2026, both for priming the pump, start of the year, as some of the equipment I talked about comes in, plus the fact that we also envisage having to step up again into 2027. If you had asked me to call it today, I'd say we probably end up with a higher net number. You've got that which will weigh upon us while still hopefully achieving all of the productivity improvements in it from the threads of automation and the new equipment coming in with a much higher level of automation than we had in the past. There are such a lot of moving parts, it's difficult to parcel that out.

The only thing I haven't mentioned is the content on average will improve again as we move into next year because we'll be moving from one generation of technology to the new generation technology at some point during 2026 for the LEAP-1B program as an example. Of course, we have the GTF Advantage which is also being made today in fairly small lots, but with that significantly increasing as we go into 2026, we need to get to a much fuller run rate in 2027. There is so much going on and with the build up, it's really difficult to give you. I just feel at this point we've managed our way through fairly well with really healthy incrementals. I mean anything above, if EBITDA is at 29%, anything above that is incremental beneficial to the company. I'm feeling as though we're going to be above that for next year.

I'm not willing to comment yet about whether we're going to be on par with our incrementals this year or not, or whether inevitably there has to be some flattening of that. Just wait till February to comment about that.

I appreciate all the detail, John. Thanks a lot.

The next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

At high levels into 2026 as well as into 2027.

Flattish CapEx in those years relative to.

Does the mix of that CapEx shift more toward IGT and midsize turbines, or is the majority of it still focused on aerospace?

In terms of absolute numbers, the majority is absolute. Dollars will still be higher for aerospace, but I think there'll be a percentage as a mix of a total. I think that the investments we're making in both the large and midsize turbines will possibly be a higher relative percentage than it is this year. I think the one question I forgot to answer on the way through the Q&A section was what did the economics look like for these turbines? Essentially, it's the same as for aero. If you were to pick up both our absolute and our incrementals for either the IGT part of our business, both large and midsize, or Aero, they're pretty much the same. It doesn't really matter what, let's say, the color of CapEx, which segment it goes into, because they're both very good.

For me, it's more the fact that we have the opportunities, and as I look forward, we more or less framed out what I think we're going to do in 2026, but every time we examine or have new conversations with our customers. In fact, I was in Europe for the first part of this week, and thank goodness I got back last night to be able to do this call. Again, it's only a conversation about improvement in opportunities which are there before us. That causes me to believe that 2027 is also going to be a significant number for CapEx. This year, we've moved up from what we thought was going to be, I know, $350 million-$370 million or something like that, maybe a little bit lower on that side.

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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