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The Fortune 500, in its 69th year in 2023, ranks the biggest U.S. companies by revenue.

F500 2023 035 Archer Daniels Midland_ADM_LATAM_PortSantos_2

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) produces industrial ingredients as varied as high-fructose corn syrup and the cotton cellulose pulp used to make paper. It also runs a commodities trading operation for goods like grain and corn. 
<ul> 
 	<li>ADM’s ag services division, which sells seeds for industrial agriculture, had a strong year. Its revenue surged 18.7%, and operating income soared 58% as constrained supplies kept prices of commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans high.</li> 
 	<li>Meanwhile, ADM’s nutrition business, which produces goods from livestock feed to food coloring, proved a drag on company performance: Sales grew just 6.5%, a sluggish pace the company attributed to global currency fluctuations and lower consumption amid rising inflation.</li> 
 	<li>In August 2022 ADM entered a joint venture with South Korean chemical company LG Chem to produce sustainable bioplastics in the U.S.</li> 
</ul>

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F500 2022-Archer Daniels Midland

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G500 147 Archer Daniels Midland

<span data-sheets-value="{&quot;1&quot;:2,&quot;2&quot;:&quot;The Chicago-based agricultural processor’s business spans 200 countries and touches everything from animal feed and human food to cosmetics, alcohol, and paint. Its annual performance has much to do with market conditions and commodity prices: In 2020, sales dipped 0.5% due to lower sales volumes of rice, ethanol, oils, and corn by-products. (ADM idled some facilities because of decreased demand last year.) Still, profits increased 28.5% over the previous year owing to more robust global trade—particularly between the U.S. and China—and strong demand for specialty ingredients like probiotics and plant-based proteins.&quot;}" data-sheets-userformat="{&quot;2&quot;:12673,&quot;3&quot;:{&quot;1&quot;:0},&quot;10&quot;:2,&quot;11&quot;:4,&quot;15&quot;:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;16&quot;:11}">The Chicago-based agricultural processor’s business spans 200 countries and touches everything from animal feed and human food to cosmetics, alcohol, and paint. Its annual performance has much to do with market conditions and commodity prices: In 2020, sales dipped 0.5% due to lower sales volumes of rice, ethanol, oils, and corn by-products. (ADM idled some facilities because of decreased demand last year.) Still, profits increased 28.5% over the previous year owing to more robust global trade—particularly between the U.S. and China—and strong demand for specialty ingredients like probiotics and plant-based proteins.

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CTW-2021-27-ADM

ADM has been on a quest to turn plants into meat substitutes since the 1950s, and claims the title of inventor of the soy veggie patty. Today, as a $64 billion ingredient company supplying global food brands, it may be the biggest plant-based protein producer you’ve never heard of. Its 10 joint ventures and investments in the category range from growing meat from animal cells to creating protein through fermentation to building the world’s largest insect protein production facility (it’s designed to convert flies into animal feed). These deals are key to ADM’s effort to remake itself into more than an agri-giant processor of commodity crops. ADM expects the $10 billion plant-protein sector to triple in size over the next decade as consumers become more concerned about the impact of their diets on the environment.

Change the World

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F500-2021-51-Archer Daniels Midland

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G500-2020-168-Archer-Daniels-Midland

The agricultural commodities and food processing giant, which fell 13 places on this year’s list, faced a bevy of challenges in 2019, including spring flooding in the American Midwest, an African swine fever outbreak in China, and continuing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Revenues rose only 0.5% from the previous year, due to the weak performance of ADM’s ag services and oilseeds division, as well as its carbohydrate solutions unit. Both were challenged by lower sales volumes and commodity price declines. A bright spot was the company’s nutrition business, where sales were up 50%, largely due to acquisitions including that of Neovia, a French animal nutrition company.

This year's Fortune 500 marks the 66th running of the list.

F500-2020-054-Archer-Daniels-Midland

The agricultural commodities and food processing giant, which falls five places on this year’s list, faced a bevy of challenges in 2019, including spring flooding in the American Midwest, an African swine fever outbreak in China, and continuing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Revenues rose only 0.5% from the previous year due to the weak performance of ADM’s ag services and oilseeds division, as well as its carbohydrate solutions unit. Both were challenged by lower sales volumes and commodity price declines. A bright spot was the company’s nutrition business, where sales were up 50% largely due to acquisitions like Neovia, a French animal nutrition company.

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Global business is back. After limping through a worldwide financial crisis and economic slowdown, the 500 largest companies ranked by revenues shattered all sorts of performance records in 2013: They racked up combined revenues of $31.1 trillion, up 2.5% from 2012, and profits soared 27% to nearly $2 trillion. China’s 95 companies (up from 89 last year) posted $5.8 trillion in revenues. The U.S. has four fewer companies on the list than last year but remains (for now) the country leader, with 128 corporations on the list—including No. 1 Wal-Mart Stores—reporting $8.6 trillion in revenues. 

Wal-Mart stayed on top as its sales crept closer to half-a-trillion dollars. Apple moved into the top five. And UnitedHealth Group continued its steady climb. 

Change The World

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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), founded in 1902, is one of the largest global players in food processing and commodities trading. Headquartered in Chicago, ADM operates more than 800 facilities worldwide, processing oilseeds, corn, wheat, and other agricultural products. The company is a leading supplier of food ingredients, animal feed, and biofuels. ADM plays a crucial role in the global food supply chain, connecting crops to markets and providing essential ingredients to various industries.

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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): Company Profile, Stock Price, News, Rankings

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Archer Daniels Midland

archer daniels midland

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms.

Welcome to the first quarter earnings conference call for ADM. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer and Monish Padalawala, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation and the materials. Unless otherwise required by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements due to new information or future events. In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the ADM website. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

Thank you, Megan. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. Please turn to Slide four. Today, ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 Total segment operating profit was $747,000,000 for the quarter. Our trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $439,000,000 ABM's first quarter results were aligned with our outlook and market expectations and our business operated well in a dynamic external environment.

With uncertainty related to global trade and regulatory policy continuing to have an impact on the business, we were able to drive positive momentum in focused areas. Our Carbohydrate Solutions team delivered solid results, supported by positive margins in sweeteners along with strong execution in ethanol. Nutrition's performance in the first quarter, specifically in our Flavors and Animal Nutrition portfolios, is on a path to recovery. We also made important progress in getting our Decatur East facility back online as it moves into the final stages of recommissioning. Our Services and Oilseeds was impacted by challenging conditions and overall market uncertainty and took actions to drive organizational realignment and network optimization.

And thanks to our team's continued diligence in safety, I'm pleased to report that our Q1 total recordable incident rate was the lowest it has been in the history of ADM. These examples highlight our team's ability to drive our strategy forward, while focusing attention on the self help and execution excellence agenda we outlined earlier in the year. Let's take a closer look at our progress in the first quarter. Please turn to Slide five. In our last call, we shared a slate of self help activities to enable us to deliver on execution and cost goals, drive simplification and strategic growth, while maintaining continued capital discipline.

We're taking a balanced approach to these efforts across the business. Let me share a few highlights. From a cost perspective, we made important progress on our target of 500,000,000 to $750,000,000 in cost savings over the next three to five years. This included a targeted workforce reduction to align our organization to our most critical priorities along with a thorough review of third party consulting spend. With this, we are seeing a reduction in our overall SG and A costs.

We made the strategic decisions to deliver optimization across the network, including the recently announced closure of our Cursea, South Carolina crush facility, exit of domestic trading operations in China and Dubai, as well as the consolidation of several grain warehouses. We don't take actions that impact our colleagues and the communities where we operate lightly. I have engaged with these groups to clearly explain the rationale for our decisions and provide them with necessary transition support. We're also addressing challenges with operations uptime for our North America soy assets. And we're now live with Decatur East and expect to have the plant at full run rate by the end of the second quarter.

The focus on our Nutrition business is beginning to show positive results. Addressing demand fulfillment issues and leveraging our innovation capabilities in Flavors has supported a strong year over year operating profit. We've unlocked both simplification and growth potential in our recent Mitsubishi MoU announcement, focusing our combined teams on what they do best. We advanced automation and digitization across our global manufacturing network, scaling successful pilots, improving reliability and efficiency and driving over a dozen new projects to deliver cost savings and smarter operations. We continue to invest in R and D related to health and wellness solutions.

And in February, we announced a partnership with Asahi Global Foods Corporation to distribute an innovative postbiotic design to address challenges with stress, mood and sleep. The expansion of our REGENAG partnership and biosolutions business is playing an important role in driving farmer resiliency, creating new high value avenues for the sale of differentiated crops. Underpinning all this work, we remain focused on capital discipline and actively managing traditional channels to return cash to shareholders. As we look ahead to the remainder of the year, this self help agenda will be critical to positioning ADM to manage through what continues to be an uncertain external landscape. We remain confident in our team's ability to take the balance of actions needed to support the result that matches the high expectations we've set for ourselves.

Our team is expectations keeping close to our customers and remain alert to both the challenges and the opportunities that we're seeing in the market. We're taking full advantage of the breadth of the investment we have made in our business over the past decade and the agility that provides. From our crush and export capabilities across The U. S, Argentina and Brazil to our expansive origination network to our expertise in formulation, to our portfolio of ingredients including all natural colors and flavors, all of these add to ADM's ability to support rapidly evolving needs. With that, let me hand it over to Manish to share a deeper dive into first quarter financial results and our 2025 outlook.

Thank you, Juan. Please turn to Slide six. To start, let me provide some perspective on the operating backdrop that shaped the first quarter for the AS and O segment. As we expected, market disruptions related to biofuel policy uncertainty negatively impacted biodiesel and renewable diesel margins and U. S.

Vegetable oil demand. We also experienced higher global soybean stock levels and an increase in Argentinian crush rates, which pressured global soybean meal value. Additionally, trade policy uncertainty, particularly with Canada and China, created volatility throughout the quarter for canola meal and oil. Taken together, these factors resulted in significantly lower meal and vegetable oil values pulling down margins across our businesses. Overall, against this backdrop, AS and O segment operating profit for the first quarter was $412,000,000 down 52% compared to the prior year quarter with declines across all sub segments.

In the Ag Services sub segment, operating profit was $159,000,000 down 31% versus the prior year quarter, driven primarily by lower North American origination export volumes as order flow was impacted by trade policy uncertainty. North American origination results also reflect the additional expense of $34,000,000 recorded in the period for anticipated export duty. Global trade results were lower relative to the same quarter last year largely due to the negative timing impact partially offset by higher destination marketing volumes and margins. Total net timing impacts were approximately $48,000,000 year over year. In the crushing sub segment, operating profit was $47,000,000 down 85%.

Consistent with the previously provided outlook, both global soybean and canola crush execution margin was significantly lower than the prior year quarter. Global executed crush margins were approximately $13 per ton lower in soybeans compared to the prior year quarter and approximately $40 per ton lower in canola. By region, crush margins were down significantly in North America. North America soybean crush margins were negatively impacted by additional capacity from new crushing facilities and lower soybean oil demand stemming from biofuel policy uncertainty. North America canola crush margins were negatively impacted by trade policy uncertainty and lower canola oil demand for biofuel production.

There were net negative timing impacts of approximately $36,000,000 year over year. In the Refined Products and Other sub segment, operating profit was $134,000,000 down 21% compared to the prior year quarter due to lower biodiesel and refining margins. In EMEA, margins declined due to significantly lower biodiesel export volume. In North America, refining margins were negatively impacted by additional industry crush capacity and lower demand for vegetable oil due to biofuel policy uncertainty. There were net positive timing impacts of approximately $34,000,000 year over year.

Equity earnings from the company's investment in Wilmar were $72,000,000 down 52% compared to the prior year quarter. Overall, during the challenging quarter, the AS and O team executed on operational improvement like plant and network consolidation and took actions to accelerate cost savings starting with targeted organization realignment to partially mitigate the less favorable market conditions and be in an excellent position to capture opportunities as we move through the remainder of the year. Turning to Slide seven. For the first quarter, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $240,000,000 down 3% compared to the prior year quarter. Operating profit for this segment came in slightly ahead of our previously provided segment guidance for the quarter.

In the Starches and Sweeteners sub segment, operating profit was $2.00 $7,000,000 down 21% compared to the prior year quarter. In North America, S and S results were lower due to lower starch margins from demand softness in the paper and corrugated markets as well as lower North American wet mill ethanol results due to lower ethanol margins. In EMEA, S and S volumes and margins declined as higher corn costs and increased competition negatively impacted results. As a partial offset, North American liquid sweetener margins improved relative to the prior year quarter due to better product mix. Global wheat milling margins and volumes also improved relative to the prior year quarter largely due to volume growth with key customers.

In the Vantage Corn Processor sub segment, operating profit was $33,000,000 up compared to the prior quarter due to higher ethanol volumes and improved ethanol margins relative to the prior quarter. Overall, ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon were slightly negative in the quarter. Turning to slide eight. In the first quarter, Nutrition segment revenues were $1,800,000,000 down 1% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to negative currency impact. Human Nutrition revenue was up 4% due to strong flavors growth and M and A, which offset headwinds relative to supply chain challenges from Decatur East.

Animal Nutrition revenue was down 6% as negative currency impacts and lower volumes offset mix benefits. Nutrition segment operating profit was $95,000,000 for the first quarter, up 13% versus the prior year quarter. Human Nutrition sub segment operating profit was $75,000,000 down 1% compared to the prior year quarter as improved performance in Flavors was more than offset by declines in Specialty, Ingredients and Health and Wellness. Animal Nutrition sub segment operating profit of $20,000,000 was higher than the prior quarter due to higher margins supported by ongoing turnaround actions. Please turn to Slide nine.

Through the end of the first quarter, the company generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately $439,000,000 down relative to the prior quarter due to lower total segment operating profit. Solid cash generation and our strong balance sheet remain a critical differentiator for the company. We will continue to seek opportunities to further strengthen our balance sheet to provide financial flexibility to organically invest in the business to enhance returns and create long term value. We are also taking actions to ensure working capital excellence through stronger rigor on working capital planning, inventory rationalization, improvement of key account payable metrics and more timely collection of past due balances. At the same time, we remain committed to returning cash to shareholders and we returned $247,000,000 to shareholders in the form of dividends in the quarter.

Turning to Slide 10, we have provided details to support our 2025 consolidated outlook. Earlier today, we affirmed our full year adjusted EPS guidance. We continue to expect adjusted earnings per share to be between $4 to $4.75 per share, though we now expect to be at the lower end of the guidance range given the current market backdrop. In particular, we remain cautious about our second half outlook for crush margin improvement as current domestic crush replacement margins are below our outlook. With the uncertainty related to tariff policy and macroeconomic conditions, we are not providing segment operating profit guidance for future quarters.

We are providing directional guidance at the segment level for the full year. Our directional guidance for operating profit for the full year for Carbohydrate Solutions and nutrition has not changed from our previously provided indication. With performance to date and continued pressure on crush margins in the second quarter, we are lowering our directional guidance for AS and O for the full year to be lower than the prior year. As an additional data point, current crush margins for the second quarter are trending lower than the first quarter. I also want to share some updates on our overall assumptions.

We still expect better crush and biodiesel margins in the second half of the year as clarity on Renewable Volume Obligations or RVOs is expected to support strong U. S. Demand for crop based vegetable oil. We also expect to deliver our $200,000,000 to $300,000,000 cost savings target for the year and have already taken several actions that are delivering savings. We are working thoughtfully to accelerate saving realization where possible.

We have seen some signs of weakening customer demand, particularly in carb solutions and have lowered our volume expectations for select markets and products. While we are not embedding any significant macroeconomic slowdown in our guide, we are actively monitoring consumer demand. To conclude, as we navigate 2025, our focus will remain on what is within our control. A full commitment to remediating the material weakness and making strides to strengthen our internal controls driving execution to improve operational performance and lower costs while sustaining functional excellence simplifying our portfolio to enhance focus on core competencies while unlocking additional capital to drive value and position the company for long term success. These efforts position us in our ability to navigate the current dynamic environment and reinforce our confidence in delivering on our commitments.

Before I hand it back to Juan, I want to take a few minutes to thank all my ADM colleagues for their dedication and focus in delivering for our customers and helping to create long term value for our shareholders. Back to you, Juan.

Thanks, Monish. I'll briefly close by recapping our focus as we continue the path into 2025. As I said at the top of the call, we will continue to focus on both execution, agility and our self help agenda. Our teams are monitoring the evolving geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape and they are taking actions as we get more clarity about both the short and long term situation. Importantly, we are leveraging cost management, strategic simplification, targeted investment and capital discipline to ensure we are prepared for a multitude of scenarios.

The potential impacts on our mitigating actions look different for each part of the business. For carbohydrate solutions and nutrition, we are paying close attention to overall consumer sentiment and the potential for an economic slowdown. To mitigate against this, we're taking aggressive action on our manufacturing and SG and A costs. In Nutrition specifically, we are focused on getting our yeast plant fully ramped up, optimizing our Animal Nutrition business model, leveraging our leading specialty ingredients portfolio including all natural colors and flavors and ensuring we are continuing to execute against the healthy opportunity pipeline in Flavors and Health and Wellness. For Ag Services and Oilseeds, we are monitoring the global trade and biofuel policy environment to ensure that we can enable the export market for our vast origination footprint and take advantage of improving demand conditions later in the year.

On trade policy, we have seen positive signals with both delays in implementing tariffs to potential avoidance of tariffs and counter tariffs. The decision regarding USTR's Section three zero one proposal have mitigated some of the potential impact of transporting commodity products between China and The U. S. And more broadly for China exports, we will need to see where things stand as we approach The U. S.

Soybean harvest in the October to December period. Beyond trade, strong policy support for biofuels including clarity on RBOs is expected to support strong U. S. Demand for crop based vegetable oils. In this business, beyond general market improvements, we will continue our focus on both cost management and strategic simplification self help efforts to manage through uncertainty.

As noted by Monish, these factors support our confidence in our full year guidance for 2025, though with current fundamentals we will be at the lower end of our range. We are a U. S. Company that is fundamental to the global food, feed and energy supply chains, connecting consumers with farmers to fuel the world and keep The U. S.

Agriculture sector competitive. We have a long track record of navigating cycles and are focused on resiliency, which comes from our unparalleled asset network and our employees' commitment to excellence. As in the past, regardless of external challenges and market disruptions, ADM is working with our farmers and customers to be a source of strength in the economy, always fulfilling our mission to unlock the power of nature to enrich the quality of life. With that, we'll take your questions now. Operator, please open the line.

Thank Our first question for today comes from Tom Palmer of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thanks for the question. Maybe just to start out, I wanted to ask on your expectation for the RVO and how this guides your outlook for 2025. So when we think about biodiesel margins in the back half of the year, should we be thinking that we could see a return to last year's levels? When we look at crush margins, is the assumption that we could see a return to kind of the original guidance, which I think was $45 to $55 per metric ton per soy and $50 to $70 per canola? Just any help on kind of the shape of the year in terms of the second half and how the RVO influences that.

Yes. Thank you, Tom for the question. As you pointed out, we see a strong RVOs as the most important driver for the biofuel outlook. We understand that the RBOs rule is being developed and we are engaged with the administration on the important role of the RFS and the strong RBOs to support domestic market for U. S.

Farmers and to support a strong American energy independence. And we are confident that EPS sees this as a priority. So of course, at the moment, the industry is not running at rates to satisfy mandated volumes. And we expect and the logic implies that margins need to go up to bring run rates higher in the second half. When we go to crush and we're probably going to see that by RINs improving as we go forward.

When we go to crush, we have seen a strong demand for soybean meal. Of course, it has been a strong crush rates in Argentina, Brazil and The U. S, but we've seen that leg is supported. Of course, when we cannot produce all these biofuels in The U. S, oil goes to fight with for export markets and that's the weak leg at this point in time.

So we expect that with RVOs coming back, we will be able to come back to the original expectations that maybe we had at the beginning of the year.

Just from a math perspective, since you asked specific, Tom. First quarter, as my script says, we ended $13 below last year, so around $40 40 3 dollars In q one, in soy, canola was last year was around hundred. So we are somewhere we were $40.35 to $40 lower. Q two is currently trending lower than q one. From a crush rate perspective, part of it is timing because we do get booked on before the quarter is in.

So Q2 is lower both in canola and in soy. And then as Juan said, we are expecting a ramp up in the second half. Of course, now it's going be a wider range because Q1 and Q2 are lower. So when we originally said we would be in the 40 to 6 we had said 45 to 55. We are now saying 40 to 65 for the year on soy.

And then canola, had said 50% to 70%. We are at the 45% to 65%. So as Juan explained it, when we do come back in the second half, you would come back to margins that we had originally expected. But since the first half is lower, the total number gets impacted. So hopefully, I answered your question.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Strelzik of BMO. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

to follow-up on the RVO. Good morning. Good morning. I just wanted to follow-up on the kind of RVO line of questioning. Is there a specific RVO kind of number or range that you're assuming to get to those types of outcomes?

Or how do you maybe think about that? Number one. And number two, just more broadly, what is a positive RVO outcome for ADM? Is there like a breakeven RVO above which you see it as a positive outcome below which is negative. We've obviously seen the reporting north of €5,000,000,000 So I'm just curious how you think about maybe the range of outcomes and how it impacts your business?

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. I would say the industry asks to a certain degree is like €5,200,000,000 of biomass based biodiesel and maybe €15,000,000,000 conventional, so a total of €25,000,000,000 20 5 point 5 billion euros I think, as I said, we are engaged with administration. We understand that the EPA understands the importance of this. It helps with all the priorities the administration has set up, which is to help the agricultural farming.

Need to do that by expanding export markets, but also by solidifying internal consumption and biofuel is an excellent way to do that and also to improve energy dominance, which is another objective. So we are engaged. I mean, we as you know, the guidance on all these ended on the ninety day comment period ended in April. So we're expecting that the administration is tackling this hopefully soon. So but the industry depends on that.

Just, Andrew, I'll build on you as the impact to ADM for, like, I'll just talk second half of twenty twenty five because the assumption is that replacement margins would move up. So if replacement margins did not move up between now till the end of the year, then that's a $0.50 additional headwind. So that's the impact that we are counting on a recovery in the second half from a RVO perspective or from crush margins, which is heavily driven by what RVOs become.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the question. I had a question about RPO. So I know there was a I think it was a $34,000,000 year on year positive timing benefit. But even adjusted for that, given how weak the environment was in The US and, the lower much lower export volumes out of EMEA, just curious what drove the strength there, and I know it's significantly lower than the past few years, but prior to the RD rush we saw over the past few years, I mean, that was a pretty good showing. But just wondering what were the positives in that, you know, given the very challenged backdrop here in The US.

So Heather, I would say, yes, in the short run, it was a little better. But when you look at it for the whole year and how our guide is based, I would say in total, we still continue to see RPO to be softer. And you have seen most of the items. Biodiesel margins have already come off significantly. And part of it is driven by just extra volume, pretreatment capacity, etcetera.

In EMEA, the margins are also significantly lower than the prior year, where again we experienced benefits from US SME market flows. And then third, when you just think about the backdrop with the implementation of 45z as well as all the extra refining capacity that exists, that will continue to weigh on margins. So I would say in total, taken together, RPO will be significantly lower versus the prior year. And that's what we had thought coming into the year and that's what we continue to think sitting as of right now.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Thoreau of Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hey, everyone. This is Rahi on for Ben. Thank you so much for the color today. Just regarding tariffs, can you give us more color on trade flow shifts, I. E, how you're replacing Chinese demand?

And maybe how much of a drop in volume was related to China and ag services? Do you have a percentage of profit or revenue that normally relates to China? Thank you so much.

Yes. Hi, Rohit. Listen, at the end of the day, I would say if you look at Q1, if you think how all these tariff has or this thing has settled, the impact has not been that significant in Q1. Probably the biggest impact we have had has been from speculation about what the USTR Section three zero one maritime issue was going to be. But in reality, USTR issued a ruling, it basically almost removed all the risk from agricultural exports.

So we've been pleased to see the administration have paused for ninety days the implementation of some of these while we still try to negotiate agreements with the different parties. But if you think about Mexico and Canada export tariffs, basically 98% of our products are exempt from that. So we didn't feel any impact there. Corn Europe, they delayed the retaliation on corn until July and in soybean until December. And although on China, we escalated, the reality is The U.

S. Is not going to be competitive to China for the second and third quarter because that's when Brazil and Argentina become most competitive and we come back in October when there is The U. S. Harvest. So we have until then to see how this clarifies.

So that's where we see the situation today. Again, we are working, as you said, how to offset the impact of that. For us, we work directly in The U. S. With 60,000 farmers.

It's important for them the access to export markets. So there are going to be export markets where we're going to be gaining share. Remember also that China has moved to Brazil to a certain to a bigger extent in the previous issue with trade in 2017 or 2018. So the reliance on U. S.

Exporting to China is not that big. Probably for soybeans is in the range of 20,000,000 tons, if you will, if that were the total impact. And then I think China export so I think that's the impact at this point in time. We were pleased to see, as I said, U. TR Section three zero one was sold favorably for agricultural exports.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Purin Sharma of Stephens. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Sorry, Piran. Your line is now open. Please go Apologies

about that. Good morning. Thanks for the question here. Just wanted to ask about the, soy crush industry. Just, you know, with all the announcements with new crush capacity coming online in North America, and then just with the weak fundamental backdrop that we've we've we've had over the last several months, have you heard of any signs of rationalization, or or signs of pause in adding this new capacity in the industry?

Do you anticipate any any anything to come online or be delayed in 2026 and beyond?

Yes. Listen, we can speculate for what others are doing. I mean, we try to manage what we can control. As you heard in the prepared remarks, I mean, we are in the process of shutting down one of our plants in Kersho. And I think we continue to see the continue to check for the competitiveness of our plants.

We have a lot of self help agenda to try to continue to improve that. Volumes have been improving there on an unplanned nature. Of course, the industry will take some plant shutdowns when demand is not there. We have seen it also in biodiesel where a lot of the non integrated plants have to go down. I think it's important to know that all these capacity, the crush capacity has been brought to comply with the expected RPO mandates and that's where we think it's so important to bring clarity into that because we were in the process of building a renewable green diesel industry and everybody built in anticipation of that supporting U.

S. Manufacturing. So I think it's important that the moment we clarify the rules, all this capacity that has been invested in will make sense.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Hayne of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on Argentina cited as a headwind for crush in the quarter. But we've been kind of seeing some headlines that farmer selling there is off to a historically slow start. So maybe you could just put a finer point around what you've assumed for the commercialization of that crop for the balance of the year as it relates to the guidance. Thank you.

Yes, Stephen. In Argentina, the farmer basically kept about 7,000,000 tons of the old crop waiting for a devaluation that in reality did not happen. So I would say you should expect now the farmer to become a little bit more regular commercializer of the crop as they need to take advantage of the tax advantages they got from the government before they expire in about two months. So I think you're going to see a little bit of acceleration. But yes, as an Argentine farmer myself, we withheld about 7,000,000 tons of these expecting a devaluation that didn't come.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Atami Zakaria of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So my question is on Starches and Sweeteners. Could you comment what volume growth was for S and S in the quarter? And more importantly, what volume growth do you expect for the full year?

I heard you say you're seeing some weakness in some customer demand and adjusted volume outlook because of that. So any thoughts on volume growth as we think about 2025?

Yes. Thank you for the question, Otame. Listen, when I think about the sweetened the overall Car Solutions business and we have said our guidance was slightly lower than last year and we are reiterating that guidance. We see in general solid demand solid volumes and margins across the business. There are some pockets of weakness here or there.

One, our results in Europe are going to be a little bit lower because we have higher corn cost in Europe and a little bit lower volumes. And there is some weakness in starches in either the paper industry, maybe not running in all cylinders. And some of the exports to Mexico with all these uncertainty about tariffs or no tariffs, I think that maybe some of the exports from The U. S. To Mexico has been a little bit soft in March, maybe picking up a little bit in April.

So I would say the overall tone is in general solid, but not very robust, if you will.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. I want to ask about a couple of things that to clarify a couple of things about your Q1 earnings and the outlook. In VCP firstly, you had some pretty solid operating income even though ethanol margins by our calculations were at multi year lows. So how was it so much better both year on year and quarter on quarter? And how should we think about it for the rest of the year?

And similarly on Nutrition, I think the Q1 guidance was for a 50% drop year on year and said you delivered 13% growth. So what was the difference versus expectations? And does this mean that the full year directional guidance which you reiterated now implies much stronger earnings growth than before?

Yes. Thank you. Salvador, so let me take that by piece. So on the ethanol side, as you pointed out, I think our team outperformed markers and the industry. I think it was good risk management by the team.

So kudos to the team. In general, we see hopefully margins improving over the year for ethanol. Ethanol in this environment is a little bit of a question mark. We believe that ethanol could potentially see some benefits from higher exports as some of these trade agreements get resolved because there are opportunities as a very cheap oxygenate for ethanol to make it into blends around the world. When we think about nutrition, I think we've been highlighting that we've been doing a lot of foundational improvements in Nutrition.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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