W. Joseph Campbell

  • TOPSHOT – A person votes during early voting at a polling station in the first round of early voting at a polling place, October 21, 2024, in Deland, Florida. (Photo by Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP) (Photo by MIGUEL J. RODRIGUEZ CARRILLO/AFP via Getty Images)Commentary

    Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracy

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  • President Harry Truman holds up a copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune declaring his defeat to Thomas Dewey in the presidential election, St Louis, MIssouri, November 1948. (Photo by Underwood Archives/Getty Images)Commentary

    Why Truman’s 1948 upset is no template for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to the expert who wrote the book on polling failure

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  • 11.04.20.Dewey-beats-Truman.GettyImages-50691683Commentary

    The parallels between 1948’s ‘Dewey defeats Truman’ election and today

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