- U.S. stock indexes fell Monday, kicking off a rough start to the week amid growing concerns over tariffs and the future of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence. Meanwhile, the dollar continued to fall, and Treasury bond yields rose while gold soared.
The “Sell America” trade was still in effect Monday as all major U.S. stock indexes closed lower amid mounting concerns over President Donald Trump’s trade war and his unprecedented threats to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed 2.48% percent lower, while the S&P 500 fell around 2.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.55%. At the same time, the dollar fell to a three-year low, and gold soared to record highs. A major concern among investors: the future independence of the Fed, as Trump once again laid into Powell in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Monday morning.
Calling Powell “Mr. Too Late, a major loser” in his post, the president called on the chair to lower interest rates, falsely claiming: “There is virtually No Inflation.” The Federal Reserve, which typically acts independently of the government regardless of which party is in power, has been hesitant to lower rates this year owing to concerns over rising inflation tied to the president’s tariff policies.
Though he did not outright call for Powell’s firing on Monday, investors and Fed critics alike are still worried he might attempt to do so. On Friday, Kevin Hassett, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said Trump was “studying” whether he can remove Powell before his term ends next year. Removing Powell would likely lead to even greater stock and bond selloffs, said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, on CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday.
“If you actually did try to remove the Federal Reserve chairman, I think you would see a severe reaction in markets with yields higher, dollars lower, and equities selling off,” said Guha. “I can’t believe that that’s what the administration is trying to achieve.”
The global “de-dollarization” also seemed apparent as the U.S. dollar slid further Monday. In a more typical environment, markets would be using dollars as a safe haven from the other economic noise, and the dollar would be strengthening. But other countries are losing faith in the U.S. owing to the Trump administration’s erratic actions and are actively selling down U.S. assets. The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a basket of other currencies.
U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with the rate on the 10-year note up over 4.4%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and other crypto assets surged to start off the week, acting as a safe haven amid Trump’s attacks on the Fed. Gold, too, has soared to multiple new highs this year as investors run for safety.
Nonexistent trade deals also worrying investors
Economists and investors are worried that the president’s proposed tariffs could cause a recession if the administration moves forward with them. Though Trump is hoping to make deals with dozens of different countries—including Japan and 74 other countries—so far none have materialized.
And China, on which Trump has levied 145% import tariffs, warned other countries Monday against making trade deals with the U.S. “at the expense of China’s interest.” The country will “take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” its Commerce Ministry said.
There is a 90% chance of a recession in the U.S. in 2025, according to Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Sløk.
“Implementing extremely high tariffs overnight hurts many businesses; particularly small businesses because the tariff must be paid by the business when the imported goods arrive in the U.S.,” he wrote this weekend. “Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy.”
Major earnings this week, including from the likes of Tesla, will be closely watched on Wall Street. Several companies have pulled forward guidance, including Delta Air Lines and Walgreens.
