In times of economic collapse, you can count on gold to keep its value. That’s the view of investors known as goldbugs, and during a week when stocks have collapsed and global markets are losing faith in U.S. Treasury bills, their ranks are likely to grow. But is the popular notion of gold as the ultimate safe haven actually true, and is its value holding up during the current financial turmoil? The short answer is: Yes and yes.
Indeed, a look at recent prices suggests gold has held up better than ever as President Trump has whipsawed the global economy by imposing sky-high tariffs. It crossed the $3,000-per-ounce mark for the first time on March 15, and has climbed even higher since, moving over $3,200 on Thursday. Anyone considering buying some, though, should understand how exactly gold performs during a crisis, how you can go about acquiring it, and why—as with any investment—there are certain drawbacks that go with it.
Gold surges amid tariff chaos
When the S&P 500 fell 10.5% early this month, wiping out around $6.6 trillion in market value, the price of gold fell, too. That might come as a surprise and, for some, would call into question gold’s reputation as a safe haven. But initial appearances are deceiving: The drop didn’t reflect investors losing faith in gold, but rather a temporary blip that saw traders frantically selling all kinds of assets to cover margin calls on other positions.
“Short answer is no, gold’s safe-haven status has not weakened,” said Lina Thomas, a commodities analyst at Goldman Sachs. “We will likely see a rise in gold prices once the margin-driven liquidation is completed, after which we expect to see a sharp increase in gold demand.” Indeed, exactly that pattern is reflected in the chart below, comparing the performance of the S&P 500 and gold during the tariff crisis:
Thomas added that this is a typical pattern, noting that during past extreme market events such as the COVID panic in March of 2020, gold dropped as much as 5% before quickly rebounding. Peter Grant, a vice president at precious metals dealer Zaner Metals LLC, expressed a similar sentiment, noting that this pattern of gold dipping then shooting up also occurs during more minor stock market disruptions, such as in reaction to a bad jobs report.
Gold’s reputation as a safe haven during a crisis is long-standing. It derives in part from the metal’s universal appeal—it is popular in the U.S., India, China, and everywhere else—as well as from its limited supply. As J.P. Morgan noted in a recent report: “Specifically, about 200,000 tonnes of gold have been mined throughout human history, enough to cover a soccer field to a depth of just one meter. Most of it remains with us today.”
In recent years, gold’s appeal appears to have grown. While it took 12 years for gold’s price to increase from $1,000 to $2,000 an ounce (a mark it reached in 2020), it took only another five years for it to break the $3,000 barrier. In its report, J.P. Morgan named gold as a top bullish pick for the third year in a row, and asked, “Is $4,000 in the cards?”
While the latest market turmoil has driven gold’s recent upswing, the price increase is also being driven by geopolitical factors. Specifically, central banks around the world have been buying gold at an unprecedented clip as part of an effort to reduce the share of U.S. dollars in their reserves. In light of President Trump’s tariff war, and as global investors begin to question whether Treasury bills still qualify as a virtually risk-free asset, the embrace of gold is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Buying gold—and the downside of holding it
Gold is sought after because of its scarcity, physical appeal, and popularity. But there is one thing gold does not offer: yield. Unlike most investments, which pay a dividend or other sort of reward for holding them, gold does not generate income; indeed, it will cost you a premium to hold it.
For true goldbugs, this lack of yield is not a big concern, since they value the metal for its security and believe the price will only go up in the long term. Less committed investors, though, may want to think twice about putting a sizable portion of their wealth in an asset that doesn’t produce income. Buying a small amount, though, is likely a wise choice for most people, both owing to gold’s relative stability and in the interest of the broader goal of a diverse portfolio.
So what is the best way to go about buying it? This is primarily a personal choice on whether you favor low costs and convenience, or else the security and pleasure of holding physical metal. If you prefer the former, the best option is to purchase gold via an ETF like SPDR Gold Shares (ticker GLD) or iShares Gold Trust (ticker IAU).
Buying shares in a gold ETF is as simple as placing an order through your online broker. While you still pay a fee to the ETF manager, it is a modest one: GLD comes with a fee of 0.4%, while IAU charges 0.25%. This is not the case with physical gold.
If you prefer to hold your gold in your hand, you will have to pay extra to take account of the minting and fabrication cost. According to Grant, the metals dealer, the premium you will pay above the spot market price will vary depending on what you buy—a Gold Eagle coin will cost you more than a simple bar—and on the quantity you order, but says it can range around 2% to 5%. Bargain hunters may also consider Costco, which sells gold and other precious metals and reportedly charges a markup of around 2%.
Just holding gold involves costs of its own: You’ll pay a fee to have the gold safely shipped to your house, or anywhere else that’s secure, and you’ll likely need to pay for something safe- or vault-like to protect it from theft.
Based on cost alone, buying gold as an ETF makes more sense. But if you are truly worried about economic collapse (or simply like holding physical gold), then buying it in metal form may be your best option. As Grant notes, “Physical gold is the only form of gold that’s not someone else’s liability.”
